2026 Australian Open

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Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rybakina to edge tight semi-final clash

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 28 Jan 2026 23:29

Andrew Hendrie 28 Jan 2026

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Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula predictions for Thursday's Australian Open semi-final
Rybakina has won 18 of her last 19 matches & eight straight vs top 10 players
Pegula has struggled vs top five players throughout her career & deep in slams
Prediction: Pegula to cover with Rybakina prevailing in three
The match is scheduled to start around 9.30pm AEDT on Thursday January 29

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Elena Rybakina (Photo by Getty Images)

Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Elena Rybakina seeks a return to the Australian Open final when she squares off against Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals on Thursday night.

Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Rybakina vs Pegula Stats & Trends
Rybakina vs Pegula Head To Head
Elena Rybakina Form Analysis
Jessica Pegula Form Analysis
Rybakina vs Pegula Live Stream

Rybakina has continued her momentum from late last year into 2026, heading into this encounter having won 18 of her last 19 matches following on from her title triumph at the WTA Finals. Rybakina is back in career-best form, dismantling her last eight top 10 opponents and showcasing the type of tennis that saw her win the Wimbledon title in 2022 and reach the Australian Open final in 2023. Meanwhile, Pegula has flown under the radar yet again, but she's quietly been crushing everyone in her path this tournament, advancing to her first Australian Open semi-final without dropping a set - including Amanda Anisimova in the quarter-finals.

Pegula looks relaxed - her cool, calm and composed demeanor is carrying her through the draw and the American has a decent record against Rybakina, winning half of their six matches and pushing her at the WTA Finals last year. Most matches in the second week of this Australian Open have been one-sided, but I think this one bucks the trend. I'm going to back Pegula to cover with a 3.5 games start, but Rybakina is ultimately the superior player with the higher ceiling if she finds her peak tennis - which she's been doing since the end of last year. Rybakina in three is the value play.

Rybakina vs Pegula Stats & Trends

Rybakina has won 18 of her last 19 matches
Pegula is 12-22 vs top five players & 3-7 at Grand Slams
Rybakina has won her last eight matches vs top 10 players
Pegula has covered a +3.5 games line in five of her six meetings with Rybakina
Pegula has covered a +3.5 games line in 21 of her last 23 matches
Two of Rybakina's last four top 10 wins have been in three sets
Rybakina has won two of her three Grand Slam semi-finals

Rybakina vs Pegula Head To Head

Currently locked at 3-3, with Rybakina edging a close three-setter at the WTA Finals at the end of 2025.

Year	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025	WTA Finals (Riyadh)	Semifinal	Indoor Hard	Elena Rybakina	4–6, 6–4, 6–3
2025	Billie Jean King Cup Finals	Singles	Indoor Hard	Elena Rybakina	6–4, 6–1
2024	WTA Finals (Cancun)	Round Robin	Hard	Jessica Pegula	7–6(5), 6–2
2022	Miami Open	Round of 32	Hard	Jessica Pegula	6–3, 6–4
2022	Guadalajara Open	Round of 32	Hard	Jessica Pegula	2–6, 6–3, 7–6(8)
2023	Miami Open	Semifinal	Hard	Elena Rybakina	7–6(3), 6–4

Elena Rybakina Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-1
Australian Open Record: 24-6
Grand Slam Record: 69-22
Current Ranking: No. 5
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2023)

Road to Australian Open semi-finals

Round	Opponent	Score
1st Round	Kaja Juvan	6–4, 6–3
2nd Round	Varvara Gracheva	7–5, 6–2
3rd Round	Tereza Valentova	6–2, 6–3
4th Round	Elise Mertens	6–1, 6–3
Quarter-Final	Iga Swiatek	7–5, 6–1

It was a challenging last couple of years for Rybakina, but she found her groove again at the end of last year and she's carried that momentum into the start of 2026.

Indeed, Rybakina has won 18 of her last 19 matches heading into this Australian Open semi-final showdown, blitzing the top 10 field at the WTA Finals to close out 2025 before advancing into the final four in Melbourne for the second time in her career.

Rybakina hasn't dropped a single set, raising her level from the R16 onwards. The fifth seed crushed former AO semi-finalist Elise Mertens for the loss of just four games before finishing strongly to take out Iga Swiatek in the quarter-finals.

The 26-year-old only served at 49 per cent of first serves, but she managed to fire 26 winners to 19 unforced errors, winning eight of the final nine games of the match for a 7-5 6-1 victory.

Jessica Pegula Form Analysis

2026 Record: 8-1
Australian Open Record: 20-6
Grand Slam Record: 57-27
Current Ranking: No. 6
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)

Road to Australian Open semi-finals

Round	Opponent	Score
1st Round	Anastasia Zakharova	6–2, 6–1
2nd Round	McCartney Kessler	6–0, 6–2
3rd Round	Oksana Selekhmeteva	6–3, 6–2
4th Round	Madison Keys	6–3, 6–4
Quarter-Final	Amanda Anisimova	6–2, 7–6(1)

Pegula also had a strong finish to last year, making the semi-finals of the WTA Finals before she was eliminated by Rybakina, while she launched 2026 by making the semis of Brisbane.

The American has taken her game to the next level at the Australian Open, making her first major semi-final outside of her home slam.

Pegula has ran into three fellow Americans on her way to the final four, extending her winning streak against countrywoman to eight.

The 31-year-old crushed McCartney Kessler for the loss of just two games in the second round before taking out defending champion Madison Keys 6-3 6-4 in the R16.

Pegula then improved her H2H over Amanda Anisimova to 4-0, keeping it clean with 21 winners to 20 unforced errors in a 6-2 7-6 quarter-final victory.

Rybakina vs Pegula Live Stream

Watch and bet on Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula live Australian Open tennis.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > Australian Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Elena Rybakina v Jessica Pegula

Admittedly don't have much margin for error if these two bets are going to land, but I think Pegula keeps this close and covers - but Rybakina is on fire and primed for a ninth straight win over a top 10 opponent and a return to the Australian Open final.

Pegula +3.5

Games Line

$1.82 - 2 Units

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Rybakina 2-1

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