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Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL Round 12 Tips - Lions Set to Slide to 3 Straight Losses

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 28 May 2026 16:46

Ryan Tucker 28 May 2026

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Fremantle Dockers tipped to win by 1-39 points vs Brisbane.
Game total predicted to go Under 181.5 points.
Brayshaw 25+ disposals; Rayner & Frederick as anytime goalscorers.
The game will be played at Gabba on Saturday, 30th May, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)

Brisbane v Fremantle

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers, Round 12 2026 - Expert Prediction

Fremantle to win by 1-39 pts, the Game Total to go Under 181.5, Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals and the goalscorer multi of Cam Rayner and Michael Frederick at $2.25 are the four plays for Saturday afternoon.

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers, Round 12 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers Team List & News
Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2026 Round 12 FAQ’s

Six of Fremantle's last eight wins have come within that 1-39 margin and all three of their victories against Brisbane since 2019 have landed in that exact window. The Dockers are road underdogs at the Gabba but away underdogs are covering at 55.9% this season.

Fremantle's overall rating of +12.8 against Brisbane's +5.8 and their defence rating of +11.0 against the Lions' -2.6 tells the structural story. The Dockers concede just 70.7 pts per game on defence, top of the rankings, while Brisbane have been bleeding points, conceding 96.0. Fremantle also win Clearances by +4.7 on the season against a Lions side that ranked last in tackling intensity heading into the GWS shellacking.

Brisbane got blown apart by GWS in a record-breaking 78 pt loss last week. It's important to note that result is not who the Lions are, their injury list is long and the speed of that GWS third quarter would have caught anyone off guard. But the fundamental concerns it exposed are real. Oscar Allen is out for 7-9 weeks, Eric Hipwood is 2-3 weeks away, Lincoln McCarthy has a hamstring, Ryan Lester a calf, Reece Torrent an ankle and Dayne Zorko is in doubt. Will Ashcroft is in a form slump and Jarrod Berry is a test with a calf. Fremantle will have earmarked this preparation and they arrive as the competition's form team with ten straight wins. Brisbane are patched together.

The Under 181.5 is the sharpest line on the board. Seven of Fremantle's eleven games this season have gone Under and 10 of the 18 games played across the last two rounds went Under despite the average bookmaker line sitting at just 178 pts. Fremantle's defence at 70.7 pts conceded per game will suppress Brisbane's scoring.

Take Fremantle to win 1-39, Game Total Under 181.5, Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals and the goalscorer multi of Cam Rayner and Michael Frederick at $2.25.

Six of the Dockers last eight wins overall have landed in the 1-39 margin window.
The Dockers' defence rating of +11.0 against the Lions' -2.6 the most significant structural gap in the matchup.
Seven of Fremantle's eleven games have gone Under this season and 10 of 18 games went Under across the last two rounds despite average lines of 178 pts, firmly backing the Under 181.5.
Andrew Brayshaw has hit 25+ Disposals in three of the last four head-to-head clashes against Brisbane, including 30 and 25 in the two most recent meetings at the Gabba, and stepped up with 25 Disposals and seven Clearances last week

Head to Head Stats

Brisbane hold a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings and a 12-4 advantage at the Gabba. The last five meetings have produced margins of 57 pts, 23 pts, 3 pts and 48 pts, with Brisbane winning three of the last four. All three of Fremantle's wins in this matchup since 2019 have been decided by margins between 3 and 26 pts, consistent with the 1-39 cover range.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis

Brisbane were humiliated by GWS in a 78 pt loss at Engie Stadium, conceding a record 14-goal third quarter in a result that exposed every crack in their depleted roster. The Lions lost the Inside 50s 75-49 and were physically overwhelmed once the Giants found their rhythm after half-time. Lachie Neale picked up 29 Disposals and seven Clearances but had no support, and the absence of so many key personnel across the ground was stark.

The injury list is the defining factor heading into this week. Brisbane are missing players in every line with Oscar Allen and Eric Hipwood up forward, Lincoln McCarthy and Reece Torrent across half back, Ryan Lester and Dayne Zorko in the midfield. Jarrod Berry is a test with a calf. Will Ashcroft is carrying a form slump at exactly the wrong time. This is a Lions side operating well below its peak.

Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis

Fremantle made club history with their 10th consecutive win, overcoming a brave St Kilda side that led by one point early in the final term before a six-goal burst sealed a 30 pt victory. Murphy Reid was the standout with 30 Disposals and 14 score involvements, Andrew Brayshaw shouldered the midfield load with 25 Disposals and seven Clearances in the absence of Caleb Serong and Hayden Young, and Jye Amiss booted four goals.

The Dockers have now won ten straight and sit on top of the ladder for the first time since 2015. They travel to the Gabba as underdogs on the market but as the competition's most consistent team. Serong and Young remain in doubt but Fremantle have shown all season they can win without them.

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers Team List & News

Brisbane Lions Team News: Jarrod Berry, Noah Answerth and Cody Curtin all return after last week’s heavy loss to GWS.

Fremantle Dockers Team News: Alex Pearce returns as the Dockers continue without Hayden Young and Caleb Serong.

Brisbane Lions	POS	Fremantle
K. Coleman, H. Andrews, D. Gardiner	B	B. Cox, A. Pearce, H. Chapman
D. Wilmot, T. Gallop, B. Reville	HB	J. Clark, L. Ryan, J. McVee
J. Berry, H. McCluggage, Z. Bailey	C	M. Frederick, A. Brayshaw, N. O’Driscoll
C. Cameron, L. Morris, L. Ashcroft	HF	M. Reid, I. Dudley, S. Switkowski
S. Draper, C. Rayner, K. Lohmann	F	P. Voss, J. Amiss, J. Treacy
D. Fort, J. Dunkley, L. Neale	FOLL	L. Jackson, S. Bolton, M. Johnson
J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, C. McKenna, C. Curtin, N. Answerth	I/C	K. Worner, C. Wagner, N. Erasmus, C. Scerri, M. Cox

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2026 Round 12 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2026 Round 12?

You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2026 Round 12 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2026 Round 12?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2026 Round 12 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.

Verdict

Brisbane Lions v Fremantle Dockers

Take Fremantle to win 1-39, Game Total Under 181.5, Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals and the goalscorer multi of Cam Rayner and Michael Frederick at $2.25.

Fremantle 1-39

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