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St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 12 Tips - Points on Offer at Marvel

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 27 May 2026 13:37

Ryan Tucker 27 May 2026

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Hawthorn tipped to cover -12.5, riding a 7-game Marvel Stadium win streak.
Saints face key injuries, especially in ruck, and struggle vs top teams.
Best bets: Hawthorn -12.5, Game Total Over 183.5, and key player props.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Thursday, 28th May, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)

St Kilda v Hawthorn

St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 12 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn have won seven straight at Marvel Stadium and five of those by 20 points or more. St Kilda are yet to beat a side sitting above them all season. The Hawks cover and this game goes over.

St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 12 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & News
St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 12 FAQ’s

The model has Hawthorn by just 4.7 pts but we are going the other way. The model doesn't know that Hawthorn have turned Marvel Stadium into a fortress or that St Kilda have been the competition's great tease, winning the games they should and falling short against anyone with genuine class. Hawthorn win Tackles by +17.0 in this matchup, win Intercepts by +2.6 and dominate Contested Possession by +9.4 on the season.

The Over 183.5 is where the sharpest value sits. The model has the number at 190.4 with a 59.4% Over probability and a 9.4% edge. The average Game Total at Marvel this season sits at 181.4 and three of the last four head-to-head clashes have gone Over. St Kilda are averaging 98.8 pts over their last five games and Hawthorn are generating 96.2 on attack. Both teams scoring to their recent averages gets this comfortably over the line.

St Kilda are still missing Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and lost Rowan Marshall and Dougal Howard to injury against Fremantle. The ruck situation is a genuine concern against a Hawthorn side that wins the Clearance count by +3.1 on the season and has Jai Newcombe operating at the peak of his powers. Jack Sinclair will be asked to carry even more of the load in Wanganeen-Milera's absence, which is exactly why the Sinclair and Amon 25+ Disposals multi has legs, both men will be heavily involved in a high-possession game.

Take Hawthorn -12.5 and the Game Total Over 181.5. The Disposals multi of Jack Sinclair and Karl Amon both 25+ and the goalscorer multi of Dylan Moore and Max Hall to each kick a goal are the top player props across top AFL Betting Sites.

Hawthorn have won seven consecutive games at Marvel Stadium with five of those victories by 20 points or more.
St Kilda are averaging 98.8 pts over their last five games and three of the last four head-to-head clashes going Over.
St Kilda are missing Wanganeen-Milera and enter with ruck concerns after Marshall and Howard both left injured against Fremantle, directly undermining their clearance output against Hawthorn's +3.1 Clearances advantage.
Hawthorn win Contested Possession by +9.4 and Tackles by +17.0 in this matchup.

Head to Head Stats

St Kilda hold a 6-4 record in the last 10 meetings but Hawthorn have won 2 straight. The Saints have won just one of the last four clashes with margins of 20 pts, 5 pts and 10 pts all going to the Hawks in that stretch. The most recent result was a Hawthorn win 94-74 in Round 17 2025. Three of the last four meetings have gone Over the Game Total.

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis

St Kilda led Fremantle by one point early in the final term before a six-goal burst from the Dockers sealed a 30 pt defeat. It was another chapter in the Saints' defining story of 2026, competitive against the best, unable to close. Max Hall was outstanding with 25 Disposals, nine Clearances and two goals in his most influential game of the season, while Jack Sinclair drove hard with 29 Disposals and six rebounds.

The injury toll from Friday night is significant. Rowan Marshall hobbled off late with a leg concern, Dougal Howard suffered a calf injury and both are in doubt this week. Losing Marshall in particular against a Hawthorn side that controls the ruck battle is a major blow for a Saints team that wins Clearances at the coalface.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

Hawthorn ground out a nine-point win over Adelaide at UTAS Stadium to end three winless games, showing genuine grit after trailing for much of the first quarter. Blake Hardwick answered the call in Jack Gunston's absence by booting four goals, while Nick Watson was the catalyst for a five-goal second quarter before being taken from the ground for a head injury assessment. Watson was cleared and is expected to play.

The win extended their Launceston streak to 12 straight and now they return to Marvel where they have been even more dominant. Jarman Impey was exceptional with 12 Intercepts and 781 metres gained against Adelaide and the Hawks' transition game is operating at a level that St Kilda's depleted defence will struggle to contain.

St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & News

St Kilda Saints Team News: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera remains sidelined. Alixzander Tauru and Isaac Keeler both come into the side, with Liam Stocker managed and Dougal Howard sidelined through injury.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News: The Hawks regain Will Day and Jack Gunston in a major boost, while Bodie Ryan and Finn Maginness have both been omitted.

St Kilda	POS	Hawthorn
J. Silvagni, C. Wilkie, A. Caminiti	FB	J. Sicily, J. Battle, J. Impey
A. Tauru, R. Byrnes, M. Windhager	HB	K. Amon, B. Hardwick, B. MacDonald
L. O’Connell, M. Hall, B. Hill	C	M. D’Ambrosio, C. Mackenzie, J. Weddle
H. Garcia, M. Phillipou, M. Wood	HF	D. Moore, M. Chol, J. Gunston
D. Wilson, C. Sharman, C. Banfield	FF	C. MacDonald, M. Lewis, N. Watson
T. De Koning, S. Flanders, J. Sinclair	FOLL	N. Reeves, J. Newcombe, W. Day
J. Macrae, I. Keeler, J. Carroll, R. Marshall, L. Henry	I/C	J. Ginnivan, L. Meek, J. Ward, C. Nairn, C. Nash

St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 12 FAQ’s

How to watch St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 12?

You can watch the St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 12 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 12?

To buy tickets to the St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 12 game check the AFL website or the official St Kilda Saints site.

Verdict

St Kilda Saints v Hawthorn Hawks

Hawthorn -12.5

Line

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