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Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 12 Tips - Cats give Carlton a reality check
Geelong Cats are tipped as strong favourites against Carlton Blues in AFL 2026 Round 12. Geelong's superior recent form, averaging 109+ points in their last five games and winning four out of five by 27+ points, indicates a significant gap between the teams. While Carlton have shown improvement under Josh Fraser, defensive frailties against high-powered offenses remain. The expert verdict is that Geelong will cover the 24.5-point line and surpass their team total. Nic Newman, meanwhile, is expected to excel for the Blues with 20+ disposals.
- Geelong Cats expected to comfortably defeat Carlton Blues in Round 12.
- Cats are in top form: 4 wins from last 5, averaging over 109 points.
- Carlton's improved, but defensive woes could be exposed by Geelong.
- The game will be played at MCG on Friday, 29th May, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 12 Tips
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats, Round 12 2026 - Expert Prediction
The Cats will put the Blues back in their place on Friday night, highlighting the large gap between the top of the table and everyone else.
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats, Round 12 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Team List & News
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 12 FAQ’s
Carlton return to the MCG looking for a third straight win under caretaker coach Josh Fraser, but they face arguably the hottest side in the competition right now in Geelong. The Blues were excellent against Port Adelaide last week, controlling the midfield battle through Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and George Hewett in a 34-point victory.
Geelong, meanwhile, continued their premiership charge with a statement 27-point win over Sydney, ending the Swans’ seven-game winning streak in dominant fashion. The Cats have now won four of their last five games while averaging more than 109 points per match across that stretch.
The model projects another high-scoring Geelong performance here, with the Cats holding strong advantages in transition, rebound and turnover generation. Although Carlton have improved, they have faced two sides struggling in attack and will be no match for the onslaught the Cats will bring.
Nic Newman has been an influential part of the Blues finding their feet again and the Carlton halfback will see plenty of ball against the Cats on Friday.
- Geelong have won 4 of their last 5 matches by 27+ points
- Geelong are averaging 109.2 points across their last five matches.
- Carlton have conceded 100+ points in 6 of 11 matches this season.
- Nic Newman has had 20+ disposals in each of his last 5 matches.
Round 12 Tips: Jesse from True Footy gives his Round 12 margins for every match.
Head to Head Stats
Carlton have won three of the last four meetings between the sides, including an 18-point win in Round 7 last season and a 63-point demolition during 2024.
3 of the last 4 matches have gone over the game total.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton have shown genuine improvement since Josh Fraser took over, winning consecutive matches against the Bulldogs and Port Adelaide. The Blues looked far more composed with ball in hand last week, kicking their first eight goals without a miss in the 92-58 victory over the Power.
Patrick Cripps continues to lead the resurgence, collecting 31 disposals, eight clearances and a goal against Port Adelaide, while George Hewett and Sam Walsh have also lifted their output around stoppages.
The concern for Carlton remains defensive consistency against elite attacking teams. Prior to Fraser taking over 2 matches ago, Carlton had conceded an average of 102.6 points per game in the matches before facing the Western Bulldogs and Port.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong look every bit like a genuine premiership contender entering Round 12. The Cats have won four of their last five matches, including dominant victories over Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood and North Melbourne.
Last week’s 107-80 win over the Swans may have been their most complete performance of the season. Bailey Smith exploded after halftime, Jeremy Cameron kicked three goals and Lawson Humphries controlled the game from half-back with 33 disposals and eight score involvements.
The Cats are generating scores in bursts through relentless midfield pressure and elite ball movement, while their experienced forward line continues to capitalise inside 50. Geelong are averaging 109.2 points across their last five games and have covered big margins consistently during that run.
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Team List & News
Carlton Blues Team News
Jacob Weitering and Blake Acres return for the Blues, replacing injured Matt Carroll and omitted defender Wade Derksen.
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong are expected to welcome Tanner Bruhn back after he was managed against Sydney last week.
The Cats will again be without Driscoll and Clark due to concussion protocols.
| Carlton | POS | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| B. Wilson, J. Weitering, N. Haynes | B | C. O’Sullivan, T. Stewart, S. De Koning |
| O. Florent, H. Dean, L. Cowan | HB | M. O’Connor, Z. Guthrie, J. Henry |
| A. Cerra, S. Walsh, B. Acres | C | M. Blicavs, B. Smith, L. Humphries |
| B. Ainsworth, M. McGovern, W. Hayward | HF | J. Cameron, S. Mannagh, O. Dempsey |
| T. Byrne, H. McKay, F. Young | F | O. Henry, S. Neale, P. Dangerfield |
| M. Pittonet, J. Smith, P. Cripps | FOLL | M. Edwards, M. Holmes, O. Mullin |
| N. Newman, G. Hewett, B. Kemp, F. Evans, J. Ison | I/C | J. Kolodjashnij, T. Atkins, G. Miers, B. Close, T. Bruhn |
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 12 FAQ’s
How to watch Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 12?
You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 12 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 12?
To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 12 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.
Verdict
Geelong will cover the 24.5 points as the favourite and kick over their team total of 101.5 points. Nic Newman will see a lot of ball for Carlton and register 20+ disposals.
Geelong -24.5
Handicap/Line
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Geelong Over 101.5
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Nic Newman
20+ Disposals
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