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Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 13 Tips - Dragons Under Again

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Sat 30 May 2026 11:01

Ryan Tucker 30 May 2026

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Dragons have not scored over 16.5 points in 5 straight games.
Broncos favored with key players returning; bet on Reynolds 12+ points.
Expert tip: Back Dragons Under 16.5 & Game Under 9.5 tries.
Kick off is at 2:00 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 31st May at Suncorp Stadium

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Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Dragons team total is the cleanest angle in this game, with St George Illawarra backed to stay Under 16.5 points despite Brisbane's recent defensive collapse.

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 13 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News & Team Lists
Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

The Broncos have conceded 30+ points in 3 straight games, so it is easy to see why punters might want to attack their defence. The problem is the St George Illawarra Dragons have not cleared 16.5 points in 5 straight and have only done it 3 times all season.

The Dragons are still winless, still 17th in Points, 17th in Linebreaks and 14th in Run Metres and their last 5 games have been ugly. They have averaged just 11.2 points across that stretch, while conceding 38.8 points per game themselves.

Brisbane are not exactly humming either, but this is the right opponent for a bounce-back spot. The Brisbane Broncos get Payne Haas and Brendan Piakura back into the pack, Adam Reynolds is named at halfback, and the market has their Team Total sitting at 36.5 points.

That team total makes Adam Reynolds 12+ points a live player prop. If Brisbane are being priced for something close to 6 converted tries, the goal-kicking lane is obvious, especially in a game where the Broncos can pile up points without needing the Dragons to contribute much.

Take St George Illawarra Under 16.5 Team Total and Game Under 9.5 total tries. Adam Reynolds 12+ points and Josiah Karapani to score in the first half are the player prop plays.

St George Illawarra have not cleared 16.5 points in 5 straight games and have only done it 3 times this season.
The Dragons have averaged 11.2 points across their last 5 games in the workbook.
Brisbane's market Team Total is 36.5, which keeps Adam Reynolds 12+ points firmly in play if the Broncos convert pressure into tries.
Josiah Karapani has scored 3 tries this season and all 3 have come in the first half.

Head to Head Stats

The Dragons have won the last 2 meetings 30-26, but both of those games required more attacking punch than this current Dragons side has shown. They have also won 6 of the last 8 against the Broncos with 7 of those 8 all going over the Game Total.

Broncos Atk Rank	Dragons Def Rank	Stat	Dragons Atk Rank	Broncos Def Rank
13	16	Points	17	9
17	17	Run Mts	14	15
16	15	Linebreaks	17	8
15	13	Compl %	14	12

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

Brisbane needed the bye. The Broncos have lost 3 straight and conceded 112 points across that run, which is the only real hesitation with any Dragons Under.

The team news is much better this week. Payne Haas is set to return from a knee injury for his first game since Round 7, Brendan Piakura is also named to return and Jack Gosiewski has been named on the bench after concussion.

The Broncos also have Kotoni Staggs, Ezra Mam, Gehamat Shibasaki and Pat Carrigan named to back up from Origin One. If those players are cleared, Brisbane have the strike and forward platform to win this game comfortably even if the total tries stay under 9.5.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

The Dragons are still searching for their first win of the season and the attack remains the problem. They have scored 11.2 points per game across their last 5 and have not cleared 16.5 in 5 straight.

There are some positive team-list notes. Moses Suli returns from a back injury and Jacob Liddle is good to go after a hamstring issue, while Damien Cook has been named despite an ankle concern last week.

That said, Hayden Buchanan, Jaydn Su'A and Christian Tuipulotu are all out, and the Dragons still profile as a team that struggles to sustain pressure for 80 minutes. They can compete for patches, but turning that into 17+ points at Suncorp is a different task.

Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News & Team Lists

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 13 Team List Article.

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to livestream Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 13?

You can livestream the Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 13?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2026 Round 13 game check the NRL website or the official Brisbane Broncos site.

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons

Take St George Illawarra Under 16.5 Team Total and Game Under 9.5 total tries. Adam Reynolds 12+ points and Josiah Karapani to score in the first half are the player prop plays.

Dragons Under 16.5

Team Total

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Under 9.5

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