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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rybakina backed for the upset in thrilling final
The 2026 Australian Open final sets the stage for an epic showdown between World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and the in-form fifth seed Elena Rybakina. Sabalenka boasts an impressive Australian Open track record, winning 26 of the last 27 matches. Meanwhile, Rybakina triumphs with 19 wins in her last 20 games, including dominating victories over top 10 players, like Sabalenka in Riyadh. Despite Sabalenka's strong performance, Rybakina’s current form gives her the edge in this anticipated match, with predictions for over 21.5 games and at least one tiebreak.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina predictions for Saturday's Australian Open final
- Rybakina is on a nine-match winning streak vs top 10 players & has a positive record vs World No. 1s
- Rybakina has beaten Sabalenka in two of their last three meetings
- Close final expected, with 10 of the previous 14 meetings exceeding 21.5 games
- The match is scheduled to start at 7.30pm AEDT on Saturday January 31
Expired
Elena Rybakina & Aryna Sabalenka (Photo by Getty Images)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
It doesn't get much bigger than this as World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and in-form fifth seed Elena Rybalina square off for the 2026 Australian Open title on Saturday night in Melbourne.
It's a blockbuster showdown for the right to be crowned women's singles champion and in contrast to the bulk of the tournament, I'm predicting a pulsating encounter between the two best players in the world right now. Sabalenka's record down under needs no introduction - she's won 26 of her last 27 Australian Open matches and 44 of her last 46 outings in the country. She's advanced into her fourth straight Australian Open final - something only Martina Hingis and Evonne Goolagong have achieved in the Open Era. Meanwhile, Rybakina is on an absolute heater at the moment, coming into this clash having won 19 of her last 20 matches dating back to her WTA Finals title late last year, along with winning her last nine matches against top 10 players - including conquering Sabalenka in Riyadh.
This has all the makings of a classic final and I believe it will deliver. Ten of the 14 previous meeting between the pair have produced Over 21.5 total games, so there's the main play for the final. I also like at least one tiebreak to be played, which has occurred more often than not lately between these two, while 13+ aces to be served looks a strong chance too when you look at the recent numbers in that regard.
In terms of an outright winner, I'm going for the upset with Rybakina. She's in the form of her life and beat Sabalenka in October last year. She's won two of the last three meetings overall and is an improved player today. Sabalenka has obviously been dominant in Melbourne, but I do wonder if the match gets close, the mental scars from her three-set defeat to Madison Keys last year will start to surface. Rybakina in three is where the value is.
Sabalenka vs Rybakina Stats & Trends
- Ten of the previous 14 meetings between the pair have seen Over 21.5 Games
- A total of three tiebreaks have been contested in the last four meetings
- Five of the last seven meetings have seen 13+ total aces
- Rybakina has won two of the last three meetings between the pair
- Rybakina has won her last nine matches vs top 10 players
- Rybakina has won eight of her last 12 matches vs No. 1 ranked players
- Four of Rybakina's last five wins over top 10 players have seen Over 21.5 Games
- Sabalenka's last four Grand Slam final matches have seen Over 21.5 Games
Sabalenka vs Rybakina Player Profiles
| Category | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 26 |
| Date of Birth | 5 May 1998 | 17 June 1999 |
| Place of Birth | Minsk, Belarus | Moscow, Russia |
| Height | 5'11" (1.82 m) | 6'0" (1.84 m) |
| Plays | Right-handed | Right-handed |
| Grand Slam Singles Titles | 4 | 1 |
| Singles Titles (Career) | 22 | 11 |
| Career Prize Money | $45,397,966 | $24,476,357 |
| Singles Win/Loss Record | 484 / 200 | 392 / 163 |
| Career-High Singles Ranking | No. 1 | No. 3 |
| Current Singles Ranking | No. 1 | No. 5 |
Sabalenka vs Rybakina Head To Head
Sabalenka leads 8-6, but Rybakina won the most-recent meeting at least year's WTA Finals in straight sets.
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WTA Finals (Saudi Arabia) | Final | Hard | Elena Rybakina | 6–3, 7–6 |
| 2025 | Wuhan Open | Quarter-final | Hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 6–3 |
| 2025 | Cincinnati Open | Quarter-final | Hard | Elena Rybakina | 6–1, 6–4 |
| 2025 | Berlin Open | Quarter-final | Grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 7–6, 3–6, 7–6 |
| 2024 | WTA Finals (Saudi Arabia) | Round Robin | Hard | Elena Rybakina | 6–4, 3–6, 6–1 |
| 2024 | Madrid Open | Semi-final | Clay | Elena Rybakina | 6–1, 5–7, 7–6(5) |
| 2024 | Brisbane International | Final | Hard | Elena Rybakina | 6–0, 6–3 |
| 2023 | WTA Finals (Mexico) | Round Robin | Hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–2, 3–6, 6–3 |
| 2023 | Beijing Open | Quarter-final | Hard | Elena Rybakina | 7–5, 6–2 |
| 2023 | Indian Wells | Final | Hard | Elena Rybakina | 7–6(11), 6–4 |
| 2023 | Australian Open | Final | Hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2021 | Wimbledon | Round of 16 | Grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 4–6, 6–3 |
| 2021 | Abu Dhabi Open | Quarter-final | Hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–4, 4–6, 6–3 |
| 2019 | Wuhan Open | Quarter-final | Hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 1–6, 6–1 |
Aryna Sabalenka Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 11-0
- Australian Open Record: 34-6
- Grand Slam Record: 106-26
- Current Ranking: No. 1
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1
Road to Australian Open final
| Round | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Round | Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah | 6–4, 6–1 |
| 2nd Round | Zhuoxuan Bai | 6–3, 6–1 |
| 3rd Round | Anastasia Potapova | 7–6(4), 7–6(7) |
| 4th Round | Victoria Mboko | 6–1, 7–6(1) |
| Quarter-Final | Iva Jovic | 6–3, 6–0 |
| Semi-Final | Elina Svitolina | 6–2, 6–3 |
It couldn't have been a more dominant start to the season for Sabalenka.
The World No. 1 picked up her 22nd career title in Brisbane without dropping a set and has bulldozed her way through the Australian Open draw to reach a fourth consecutive final.
That's a 10-0 match record and 20-0 set record so far in 2026. Intimidating.
Sabalenka has raised her level during the second week, taking out rising teenage stars Victoria Mboko and Iva Jovic before dismantling an in-form Elina Svitolina 6-2 6-3. Sabalenka fired 29 winners in two sets of tennis and also landed 70 per cent of first serves. Those numbers will beat just about anyone convincingly.
Elena Rybakina Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 8-1
- Australian Open Record: 25-6
- Grand Slam Record: 79-22
- Current Ranking: No. 5
- Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2023)
Road to Australian Open final
| Round | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Round | Kaja Juvan | 6–4, 6–3 |
| 2nd Round | Varvara Gracheva | 7–5, 6–2 |
| 3rd Round | Tereza Valentova | 6–2, 6–3 |
| 4th Round | Elise Mertens | 6–1, 6–3 |
| Quarter-Final | Iga Swiatek | 7–5, 6–1 |
| Semi-Final | Jessica Pegula | 6–3, 7–6(7) |
Rybakina also hasn't dropped a set on her way to a second final at Melbourne Park.
The Kazakh breezed through the opening week before dropping just four games against former Australian Open semi-finalist Elise Mertens in the R16.
Continuing her dominant form, Rybakina won eight of the last nine games to topple Iga Swiatek 7-5 6-1 before holding off a late fightback from Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals.
Rybakina held three match points at 5-3 in the second set, but some nervous unforced errors allowed the American to force a tiebreak. However, Rybakina steadied, saving a set point of her own before closing out a 6-3 7-6 triumph, making it nine consecutive top 10 scalps and 19 wins from her last 20 matches dating back to last year's WTA Finals title.
Sabalenka vs Rybakina Live Stream
Watch and bet on Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina live Australian Open tennis.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > Australian Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
I'm predicting a cracking final here - Over 21.5 games is the play, along with at least one tiebreak and a total of 13+ aces. Rybakina in three offers value.
Over 21.5
Total Games
$1.65 - 4 Units
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13+
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Over 0.5
Total Tiebreaks
$2.45 - 1 Unit
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Rybakina 2-1
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