Australia vs New Zealand Rugby League World Cup Final 2026 Tips & Predictions - Kiwis To Grind Out The Upset

Head to Head Stats

Australia won the Round 1 meeting 24-22 at Allianz Stadium in front of 41,255 fans, with Bostock completing a debut hat-trick four minutes from full-time. The game went over 42.5 with 46 points. 

This is the fifth time the nations have met in a World Cup final. Australia won in 1988, 2000 and 2013, and New Zealand won 34-20 at Suncorp Stadium in 2008 in one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history. The last three World Cup finals have produced 36, 6 and 40 points.

Australia Form Analysis

Australia are unbeaten. After edging the Kiwis 24-22 in the opener, they trailed Fiji 16-12 after 45 minutes before winning 36-22 in Brisbane, then beat the Cook Islands 66-6 in Townsville. They saved their best for the semi-final, leading Samoa 26-2 at halftime on the way to a 44-12 win at Allianz Stadium.

Reece Walsh scored a hat-trick against Samoa, while Tom Dearden and Cameron Munster controlled the game from the halves. The forwards answered their critics, with Pat Carrigan running 163 metres from 17 carries and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 157 metres from 14. Tom Trbojevic has eight tries for the tournament and Jack Bostock seven.

New Zealand Form Analysis

New Zealand have not lost since the opener. They beat the Cook Islands 82-16 in Christchurch, with Jamayne Isaako setting a Kiwi record of 38 points in a Test, and then thrashed Fiji 78-0 on the Gold Coast.

The semi-final against Tonga was a tougher test. In wild conditions in Newcastle, with wind gusts over 60km/h, the Kiwis trailed 10-6 before Dane Gagai's late try gave them a 12-10 halftime lead. They then pulled away to win 34-10. Ponga ran for 193 metres with three try assists in his first game back from a broken arm, and Jahrome Hughes scored a try and kicked for 397 metres. McLean also scored a brilliant individual try.

Australia vs New Zealand Team News

Australia Team News: The Kangaroos stick with the same 19-man squad that beat Samoa. Pat Carrigan is listed to start with Keaon Koloamatangi on the bench, although they may swap on game day as they did in the semi-final. Sam Walker keeps his spot on the six-man interchange. Eight players remain from the 2022 World Cup Final win: Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, Cameron Murray, Pat Carrigan and Latrell Mitchell.

New Zealand Team News: Ronaldo Mulitalo returns from his one-match suspension for the high shot on Fiji's Ronald Philitoga, and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad drops back to the reserves. Naufahu Whyte is named on the bench despite failing to finish the semi-final with an ankle injury. If Whyte does not come up, Leo Thompson is the most likely replacement.

Australia vs New Zealand Team Lists