New Zealand vs Tonga Rugby League World Cup Tips & Prediction - Tonga to make history in blockbuster semi-final
Tonga are tipped to win a close Rugby League World Cup semi-final against New Zealand at McDonald Jones Stadium. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with Tonga's strong defence and recent victories over England and Samoa making them appealing underdogs. The article highlights Robert Toia, Casey McLean and Addin Fonua-Blake as Anytime Tryscorer selections, based on their current form and try-scoring records. While New Zealand have been dominant in the tournament, Tonga's resilience and value as underdogs are emphasised, with the main play being either team to win by 1-10 points.
- New Zealand vs Tonga predictions for Saturday's World Cup semi-final
- Close contest expected, either team 1-10 & Tonga tipped for the upset
- Casey McLean & Robert Toia the best Anytime Tryscorer plays; AFB holds value
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 8.05pm AEDT on Saturday November 7
New Zealand vs Tonga Rugby League World Cup Tips & Prediction
It's shaping as an unmissable Rugby League World Cup semi-final showdown as New Zealand and Tonga lock horns on Saturday night at McDonald Jones Stadium.
This has all the makings of a classic and I'm expecting a tight contest, which makes either team to win 1-10 an appealing main play. I also think Tonga offer value as decent underdogs - they match up well with the Kiwis across the park and their defence has been extremely strong in big wins over England and Samoa.
New Zealand have arguably been the most dominant team at this World Cup, but in what is looming as a 50-50 contest, it's Tonga that hold the value. Robert Toia and Casey McLean stand out as Anytime Tryscorer options after emerging as the two best centres in the game this year, along with Addin Fonua-Blake, who is worth a small stake at huge odds to crash over.
New Zealand vs Tonga Predictions & Best Bets
| Bet | Odds | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Tri Bet 10.5 - Either Team 1-10 | $1.90 @ Dabble | Tonga beat Samoa 20-18 last weekend, while NZ lost 24-22 vs Australia in the opening match of the World Cup. This is shaping as another close affair & I can't see either team winning this convincingly - it could go right down to the wire again |
| Tonga Win | $2.85 @ CrownBet | Tonga restricted England to 12 points & Samoa to 18 points - their defence is holding up, while they beat NZ 25-24 at the Pacific Cup two years ago. Tonga will be buzzing after last week's extraordinary spectacle and the $2.85 on offer for the upset is too good to ignore. All the pressure is on the Kiwis & they crumbled late from a winning position vs the Kangaroos |
| Casey McLean 1+ Try | $2.12 @ Unibet | McLean has scored a whopping 12 tries from his last five Test matches, including seven from three appearances this World Cup |
| Robert Toia 1+ Try | $2.90 @ Picklebet | Toia scored 1+ try in nine of his last 13 games for the Roosters this season, while he also crossed for Tonga vs Samoa last weekend |
| Addin Fonua-Blake 1+ Try | $11.50 @ Unibet | Fonua-Blake is just insane value here (between $6.50-$7.50 at other books). He's scored 25 tries over the last four seasons, which is by far the most by any prop in the world. Fonua-Blake scored vs NZ in the 2024 Pacific Cup & also scored the match-winner vs Samoa last week - get him on your slips |
New Zealand vs Tonga Head To Head
New Zealand hold a 7-2 advantage in the overall H2H, but Tonga have managed to win two of the last five (including a victory at the 2017 World Cup) and have emerged has a genuine Rugby League powerhouse over the last few years.
| Date | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2025 | New Zealand | 40–14 | Eden Park |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Tonga | 25–24 | Go Media Stadium |
| 25 Jun 2022 | New Zealand | 26–6 | Mt Smart Stadium |
| 22 Jun 2019 | New Zealand | 34–14 | Mt Smart Stadium |
| 11 Nov 2017 | Tonga | 28–22 | FMG Stadium |
| 14 Oct 2009 | New Zealand | 40–24 | Rotorua |
| 18 Oct 2008 | New Zealand | 56–8 | Mt Smart Stadium |
| 22 Oct 1999 | New Zealand | 74–0 | Carlaw Park |
| 8 Oct 1995 | New Zealand | 25–24 | Wilderspool |
New Zealand Form Analysis
New Zealand will sense a huge opportunity to win this World Cup, with Australia undoubtedly far from their best coming into the semi-finals.
However, despite the Kangaroos indifferent form, the Kiwis were unable to beat their great rivals in the World Cup opener, falling 24-22 after leading on several occasions.
Stacey Jones' side have bounced back emphatically from that disappointment, surviving an early scare from the Cook Islands to prevail 82-16 before a 78-0 demolition of Fiji last week, with Casey McLean running rampant with four tries.
Tonga Form Analysis
It's been a brilliant World Cup from Tonga and there's no reason they can't go all the way.
Kristian Woolf's side produced a polished performance to topple England 30-12 in their opening game before blitzing Lebanon 36-0.
Tonga then emerged triumphant in one of the greatest - if not the greatest - rugby league game of the year last week against pacific rivals Samoa, edging out an incredible 20-18 victory, with Fonua-Blake's try in the 73rd minute proving the difference.
New Zealand vs Tonga Team News
The Kiwis could receive a significant double boost ahead of this clash, with Kalyn Ponga and Phoenix Crossland both pushing for inclusion in the final 19-man squad.
Ponga is closing in on a remarkable comeback after breaking his arm in the opening match against Australia, while Crossland is available again after completing a four-game suspension stemming from Newcastle's NRL preliminary final. The Knights hooker joined the squad on Monday as an injury replacement for Jacob Laban.
Meanwhile, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has been promoted to the starting side following Ronaldo Mulitalo's one-match suspension, with Leo Thompson added to the extended bench.
Kristian Woolf has resisted making changes to his squad following the thrilling 20–18 victory over Samoa, retaining the same 19 players for this semi-final.
A major positive for Tonga was the successful return of Isaiya Katoa, who completed the full 80 minutes against Samoa after recovering from an ankle injury. The talented playmaker will once again combine with Tui Lolohea in the halves.
| New Zealand | Position | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| Keano Kini | 1. Fullback | Lehi Hopoate |
| Jamayne Isaako | 2. Winger | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak |
| Dane Gagai | 3. Centre | Tolutau Koula |
| Casey McLean | 4. Centre | Robert Toia |
| Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | 5. Winger | Jojo Fifita |
| Kodi Nikorima | 6. Five-Eighth | Tuimoala Lolohea |
| Jahrome Hughes | 7. Halfback | Isaiya Katoa |
| James Fisher-Harris (c) | 8. Prop | Addin Fonua-Blake |
| Jeremy Marshall-King | 9. Hooker | Salesi Foketi |
| Moses Leota | 10. Prop | Jason Taumalolo (c) |
| Isaiah Papali'i | 11. Second Row | Haumole Olakau'atu |
| Briton Nikora | 12. Second Row | Siua Wong |
| Joseph Tapine | 13. Lock | Tyson Frizell |
| Te Maire Martin | 14. Interchange | Soni Luke |
| Naufahu Whyte | 15. Interchange | Stefano Utoikamanu |
| Erin Clark | 16. Interchange | Demitric Vaimauga |
| Xavier Willison | 17. Interchange | Taniela Paseka |
| Scott Sorensen | 18. Interchange | Leka Halasima |
| Leo Thompson | 19. Interchange | Latu Fainu |
| Tanner Stowers-Smith | 20. Reserve | Paul Alamoti |
| Kalyn Ponga | 21. Reserve | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki |
| Phoenix Crossland | 22. Reserve | Sione Katoa |
Verdict
Tonga are backed to win a close semi-final, with Toia, McLean & Fonua-Blake the Anytime Tryscorer plays.
Either Team 1-10
Tri Bet (10.5)
$1.90 - 3 Units
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Tonga Win
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Casey McLean
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