Flemington Betting Tips for November 5, 2026 - Race-by-Race Preview for VRC Oaks Day
Flemington's VRC Oaks Day is headlined by the Group 1 Crown Oaks over 2500m, with Proxima Dea tipped as the main selection. The unbeaten filly, trained by David Payne, arrives seeking a sixth straight win after impressive victories in the Gloaming Stakes and Spring Champion Stakes. Her form is further validated by rivals performing well in subsequent races, though she faces new challenges with a wide barrier and the step up to 2500m. Despite these factors, Proxima Dea is considered the one to beat, with Salann and De Armas also noted as key contenders.
- Flemington hosts nine races on Thursday, November 5, with the Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) headlining VRC Oaks Day
- Unbeaten filly Proxima Dea chases a sixth consecutive victory in the Crown Oaks after winning the Spring Champion Stakes
- Our race-by-race preview covers all nine races, including leading selections, form analysis and key betting chances
The Group 1 Crown Oaks headlines Thursday's nine-race program at Flemington. (Getty)
Flemington hosts VRC Oaks Day on Thursday, with the Group 1 Crown Oaks over 2500m headlining a strong nine-race program.
- Flemington Tips November 5
- Race 1 - 1:00PM TCL Trophy Tips (1700m)
- Race 2 - 1:35PM Sharp EIT Subzero Handicap Tips (1400m)
- Race 3 - 2:10PM Channel 9 Chester Manifold Stakes Tips (1600m)
- Race 4 - 2:45PM Inglis Bracelet Tips (1600m)
- Race 5 - 3:20PM Sigma Trophy Tips (1800m)
- Race 6 - 3:55PM Cirka Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final Tips (1600m)
- Race 7 - 4:30PM Crown Red Roses Stakes Tips (1100m)
- Race 8 - 5:10PM Crown Oaks Tips (2500m)
- Race 9 - 5:50PM G.H.Mumm Century Stakes Tips (1000m)
The track is rated a Good 4, with the rail out six metres for the entire circuit and the forecast after 8am on Thursday is favourable. Racing begins with the TCL Trophy at 1:00pm before the Crown Oaks is run at 5:10pm.
Our race-by-race betting tips and selections for Flemington are below, with broader sports coverage available through Live Racing & Sports Updates.
Flemington Tips November 5
Race 1 - 1:00PM TCL Trophy Tips (1700m)
It is a modest affair to open VRC Oaks Day, with 4. Autumn Slide heading a competitive early market.
She has not always been the easiest mare to catch but has generally been thereabouts in stronger races, including a BM78 third in her previous second-up attempt. Competitive efforts followed through the autumn, including a fifth at Listed level in Adelaide.
Autumn Slide returned well at Cranbourne on October 23, getting home strongly over 1400m and producing the second-fastest final 200m of the entire meeting. The rise to 1700m second-up suits.
5. Chiringita was mostly honest throughout her first Australian campaign and may improve now with that preparation behind her. The Price and Kent Jnr-trained mare has completed two October jump-outs, finishing second in the latest of those in a strong Cranbourne heat.
3. All Business pulled up with genuine excuses in the Sale Cup and was not disgraced at Group 3 level prior to that. This is a significant drop in grade and she is well up to this if right.
8. Certainly Quiet could have more upside than most after placing at Group 3 level before a break and returning with a Bendigo maiden victory on October 4.
Selections: 4-5-3-8
Race 2 - 1:35PM Sharp EIT Subzero Handicap Tips (1400m)
Bjorn Baker may still not have got to the bottom of 14. Youre Not The King, who has won both starts since joining the stable.
The four-year-old had shown promise through his first campaign before making light work of a provincial BM64 on return, then comfortably handling the rise to metropolitan company. He was still doing a few things wrong despite winning that latest assignment and looks open to further improvement.
There is more depth here, but he drops 6kg from his second-up victory and barrier two should allow Rachel King to settle him handy to the speed. King and Baker have also combined at around a 26% strike rate over the past 12 months.
2. Keitel has been consistently competitive since joining the David Vandyke stable and returned in good order at Doomben on October 17, producing the fastest closing sectionals of the race. The rise to 1400m suits and the bigger Flemington circuit should give him every chance to produce his finish.
9. Misty Whisper is still a work in progress but has plenty of raw talent. He has not had much go his way since breaking through at Seymour and was back against the track pattern behind a smart Aurora Belle last time. Could be dangerous with 54kg and should appreciate the expanses of Flemington.
1. Sav On Ice mixes his form but is very capable on his day and cannot be ruled out after having little luck in the Gawler Cup last time.
Selections: 14-2-9-1
Race 3 - 2:10PM Channel 9 Chester Manifold Stakes Tips (1600m)
This looks a good opportunity for 7. Enxuto, who arrives fourth-up and hard fit.
He significantly outperformed a big starting price first-up, producing the fastest final 800m, 600m and 400m of the entire program. Both subsequent runs have come with the race shape and track pattern against him, but he has continued to make ground on each occasion.
Enxuto carries 2kg less from his latest run and now gets a kinder draw. Do not be surprised if Blake Shinn is more positive this time. He is already a dual Flemington winner, his mile record is sound and his previous defeats over this track and trip have come in decent races, including this event last year when much shorter in the market.
6. Harry's Yacht has been running well without many favours throughout the campaign. His latest form around Declaration Boulevard and Linebacker reads well enough for this and he has proven genuine across varying conditions. The mile is the query after failing in his only previous attempt.
4. Tavi Time arguably possesses the best turn of foot in the race and was a month between runs when just peaking late in his latest assignment after conceding plenty of weight to the quinella. He should strip fitter and blinkers go on.
3. Pinstriped has been going well enough aside from the Underwood Stakes and is much better suited back over shorter trips. He draws better and is the bolter.
Selections: 7-6-4-3
Race 4 - 2:45PM Inglis Bracelet Tips (1600m)
We gave 1. Fireball Miss a chance first-up in the Weekend Hussler Stakes on October 10 and there was plenty to like about the return.
The Queensland Oaks winner went around at big odds following a Cranbourne jump-out that was better than it read, then did her best work late in the Listed event, producing the fastest final 200m.
There had been some discussion about the Empire Rose Stakes last Saturday, but connections instead come here for a much softer assignment. She carries 61kg as the highest-rated runner, but there should be improvement to come second-up and Mark Zahra taking the ride adds further confidence.
2. Sass Appeal heads the market after backing up from the Empire Rose. She was honest enough there without having many excuses and is the obvious map horse in this race. The four-time Flemington winner has a strong fitness base, although she has been safely held across her past four runs and has been well found in the market.
12. Bella Verona remains progressive after winning her first two starts this preparation. She hit a flat spot before picking up again late at Geelong, suggesting the mile will suit, while blinkers go on for the first time.
8. Polymnia finds it difficult to win but is regularly thereabouts and her recent Sydney form reads well enough to finish in the money again.
Selections: 1-2-12-8
Race 5 - 3:20PM Sigma Trophy Tips (1800m)
9. Perisher was scratched from an easier assignment at Randwick last Saturday and instead comes here with James McDonald taking the ride.
It was an outstanding Australian debut from the Ciaron Maher-trained import, who landed good support and comfortably accounted for Nobler. His overseas form through the autumn and early summer also reads strongly enough for this level.
The progression from 1500m to 1800m looks manageable and he rises only 1.5kg from that first-up victory. There should be plenty of improvement to come and he looks capable of winning this before perhaps being aimed towards races such as the Ballarat or Pakenham Cup later in the campaign.
11. Different Gravy returned soundly at Geelong when settling back in a slowly run race and is better suited rising in distance second-up. His previous campaign was frustrating, but he has shown plenty of ability and won his only previous start over 1800m at Flemington. He also carries 6kg less from his return.
12. Veyepee won his first two starts of the preparation before being well back under a big weight at Caulfield on October 10. This is harder, but he draws much kinder and drops in weight.
18. Placo is a South Australian visitor to keep safe after being scratched from Wednesday's Kyneton Cup. He is capable and can give a sight up on speed.
Selections: 9-11-12-18
Race 6 - 3:55PM Cirka Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final Tips (1600m)
After a good closing effort against the race shape in a leader-dominated return, 9. Sulek looked perfectly placed in his qualifying heat at Geelong.
He dropped in weight second-up and was able to land good bets for us, giving him some confidence after going without a victory since early last season. There has always been promise there in decent company, with the pick of his previous campaign a strong third in the Listed Bendigo Guineas.
Sulek went from 1200m to 1500m last start, which should top him off nicely for the mile. Billy Egan remains aboard and has partnered him for both career victories.
4. Bel Mezyaan has a similar profile and returned with a win after enjoying the right run. There was little between him and Sulek when they met in the Bendigo Guineas in May, and the mile holds no concerns. This has likely been a target, he has won his only previous second-up start and handles all conditions.
3. Spirited Defence is racing well. His synthetic form is always something of a query, but he was then badly held up at Sandown and comes through the same Bendigo lead-up as Bel Mezyaan after finding the line strongly.
10. Flying Mikki is the big-price inclusion. He has been going well through some key lead-ups and won't know himself with 55.5kg. He will get back and look to launch late.
Selections: 9-4-3-10
Race 7 - 4:30PM Crown Red Roses Stakes Tips (1100m)
There have been some popular winners of the Red Roses over the past decade and 3. Sequinned is likely to start one of the shortest-priced favourites in recent editions.
That is partly a reflection of the depth of Thursday's race, but her sprint form this campaign has been excellent. Her only defeat came over 1400m when she raced wide, failed to settle and could not finish off over the longer trip.
She bounced back sharply at Caulfield on October 10 and returning to 1100m looks ideal. The draw should place her in the right part of the straight and she is clearly the runner they have to beat.
9. Determined Rose is the bolter. She failed first-up but appeared to run out of condition late, while the tongue tie going on here may explain why she punctured. She opened her account with a big all-the-way Mornington win before the break and Craig Newitt, who was aboard for that victory and her lead-up work, takes the ride again.
15. Nishioka has done little wrong in her first preparation and was competitive in her first attempt up the Flemington straight over this distance on Cox Plate Day.
16. Unwavering was a comfortable debut winner at Kyneton and should have improvement to come. The low draw up the straight is the query.
Selections: 3-9-15-16
Race 8 - 5:10PM Crown Oaks Tips (2500m)
There has been some market drift for 1. Proxima Dea following the barrier draw, but the unbeaten filly remains the clear starting point for Thursday's VRC Oaks.
David Payne has carefully managed her first campaign with this race firmly in mind and she arrives at Flemington chasing a sixth consecutive victory.
After completing a hat-trick on August 29, Proxima Dea was freshened before returning to win the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes over 1800m, then stepped up to 2000m and comfortably accounted for the colts and geldings in the Spring Champion Stakes.
That form has strengthened since. Global Goal had previously beaten Oaks rival De Armas in the Flight Stakes, while Stormy Marco came through the Spring Champion before winning the Victoria Derby over 2500m last Saturday.
The additional 500m is the obvious new test, but she was strong through the line at 2000m and her pedigree provides encouragement. Barrier 19 presents Zac Lloyd with a decision early, although the gate has also pushed her out to a more attractive price. She remains the one they all have to beat.
6. Salann is the value runner despite the legitimate query about whether she is looking for 2500m.
She substantially outperformed a triple-figure quote in the Thousand Guineas, settling back against the race shape before producing the fastest final 600m, 400m and 200m.
Salann then stepped up again in the Moonee Valley Vase on October 24, finishing third against the colts and geldings over 2040m. She now returns against her own sex and looks to be peaking at the right time.
4. De Armas comes through the Wakeful and it is difficult to be confident anything that finished behind her there can turn the tables. She is one of the few runners in the race with a genuine turn of foot, so if the Oaks is run steadily enough her sprint can be effective late.
Barrier one gives James McDonald every opportunity to save her for one run and, even if 2500m stretches her, class can take her a long way in a fillies' staying race.
2. Icelady is the other runner from the Wakeful worth keeping onside. She was taken on in front and left vulnerable late, but still stuck on well for third, while the runner applying that pressure faded out to be beaten seven lengths. She is very genuine and has enough in her breeding to warrant a chance at the trip.
Selections: 1-6-4-2
Race 9 - 5:50PM G.H.Mumm Century Stakes Tips (1000m)
The scratching of Cavalry Girl has opened up the last and 10. Landmark appeals on an each-way basis returning as a gelding.
His October 12 Cranbourne trial was sound and Mark Zahra is the type of jockey you want aboard a horse who will likely get back before searching for the faster lanes out wider. Zahra also rode him when he produced a strong first-up second last preparation.
The Lloyd Kennewell stable is in excellent form, with only two of its past 10 runners finishing outside the placings and both still performing well. Two of the stable's past three runners have won, while both Derby Day runners placed.
1. Rey Magnerio is the class runner and has to be respected despite the unconventional setup of dropping from 1200m to 1000m third-up. He is versatile enough to handle the change, has solid straight-track credentials and finds much less depth than the McEwen Stakes on October 24, where he produced the second-fastest closing sectionals.
3. Bev's Nine is remarkably honest, having finished in the placings in nine of 10 starts, including six victories. His two Caulfield runs this preparation have both resulted in thirds and this is his first look at the Flemington straight.
14. I'm Foxing can be forgiven for her first-up defeat after covering ground and tiring late. She bounced off a debut defeat during her first campaign to win her next four and is drawn in a suitable part of the track.
Selections: 10-1-3-14
Verdict
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