Tonga vs Samoa Rugby League World Cup 2026 Tips & Predictions - Too Close To Call
Tonga and Samoa meet in Rugby League World Cup 2026 Round 3 at CommBank Stadium, both unbeaten and with strong squads. The recommended tip is to back either team to win by 1-12 points or the draw, plus Jojo Fifita and Sua Fa'alogo as anytime tryscorers. Tonga have a formidable forward pack and strong defence, while Samoa's backline and bench have been outstanding. Previous encounters have often been close, with ten of 23 meetings decided by 1-12 points and one draw, supporting a narrow margin or draw in this fixture.
- Tip: Either team to win by 1-12, the draw, and Fifita and Fa'alogo anytime tryscorers.
- Both teams are unbeaten and closely matched, with strong recent form.
- Ten of 23 previous meetings were decided by 1-12 points; one ended in a draw.
Tonga vs Samoa
Tonga vs Samoa, Rugby League World Cup 2026 Round 3 - Expert Prediction
Take either team to win by 1-12, a draw after 80 minutes, and Jojo Fifita and Sua Fa'alogo to both score in what shapes as the game of the tournament. Both nations are unbeaten, CommBank Stadium is sold out and both sides have players who can turn the game in an instant.
- Tonga vs Samoa, Rugby League World Cup 2026 Round 3 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Tonga Form Analysis
- Samoa Form Analysis
- Tonga vs Samoa Team News
- Tonga vs Samoa Team Lists
There is very little between them. Tonga have the better halfback and forward pack. Isaiya Katoa is back from his ankle injury, and a front row of Addin Fonua-Blake and Jason Taumalolo, with Haumole Olakau'atu on an edge, is as strong as any in the tournament. Samoa have the better backline and arguably the more impactful bench, with Spencer Leniu coming off 166 metres and 10 tackle breaks in 38 minutes against PNG.
The numbers point both ways too. Samoa have piled on 142 points in two games, while Tonga have conceded just 12. Samoa won the last meeting 34-6 in Brisbane, but the meeting before that was a 20-18 World Cup quarter-final. Tonga will want revenge for last year, and Samoa will want to finish top of the pool. This feels like a game decided by one or two moments, so sitting on the fence with the 1-12 margin is the smart play. The draw is a small saver at a big price in a game this even.
The tryscorer picks are two wingers in form. Fifita scored twice against Lebanon and is one of the best finishers in the game. Fa'alogo has six tries in two games since coming on for the injured Deine Mariner in Round 1, and with Mariner still in the reserves he keeps his spot on the wing.
Take either team by 1-12, the draw, and Fifita and Fa'alogo anytime.
- Tonga have conceded just 12 points in two games, while Samoa have conceded 10.
- 10 of the 23 Tests between these nations have been decided by 1-12 points, and one finished in a draw.
- The last World Cup meeting between them was a 20-18 Samoa win in the 2022 quarter-final.
- Sua Fa'alogo has scored 6 tries in two games, with 426 Run Metres.
- Jojo Fifita scored 2 tries and made 3 Linebreaks against Lebanon.
Head to Head Stats
This is one of the closest rivalries in international rugby league. Samoa lead the head-to-head 12-10 with one draw across 23 Tests. Samoa have won the last two, 20-18 in the 2022 World Cup quarter-final in Warrington and 34-6 at the 2025 Pacific Championships in front of nearly 45,000 fans at Suncorp Stadium. Tonga won the two meetings before that, including 32-18 at the 2017 World Cup. 10 of the 23 meetings have been decided by 12 points or fewer, and the sides drew 20-20 in 1998.
Tonga Form Analysis
Tonga have conceded just 12 points in two games. They opened with a 30-12 win over England in Perth, then beat Lebanon 36-0 at CommBank Stadium with seven tries to none in front of 25,065 fans. Their scramble defence in a tough first half against Lebanon was outstanding, and Haumole Olakau'atu led the way in attack and defence.
Tonga did it without Isaiya Katoa against Lebanon, and he is back on Sunday. That lets Tui Lolohea move to five-eighth for his 25th Test, with Latu Fainu on the bench. Tyson Frizell returns at lock, Jason Taumalolo moves into the front row, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia come back into the backline. A Tonga win guarantees a semi-final spot.
Samoa Form Analysis
Samoa have been the most dominant team in the pool. They beat France 78-4 in Round 1, a record score and winning margin for Samoa at a World Cup, with Fa'alogo scoring four tries after coming on for Mariner. They followed that with a 64-6 win over PNG in Port Moresby, after trailing 6-4 early.
Leniu turned that PNG game. His 38-minute stint helped Samoa go from 6-4 down to a 28-6 lead, and they scored six tries in the final 15 minutes. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored twice with 154 Run Metres and seven tackle breaks, and Stephen Crichton kicked 11 from 14 conversions against France. Ben Gardiner has named the same starting side, with Jazz Tevaga back on the bench.
Tonga vs Samoa Team News
Tonga Team News: Isaiya Katoa (ankle) returns at halfback, so Tui Lolohea moves to five-eighth for his 25th Test and Latu Fainu goes to the interchange. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia return to the starting side in place of Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti. Tyson Frizell returns at lock, Jason Taumalolo moves into the front row and Stefano Utoikamanu goes to the interchange. Siua Wong is back in the starting side, with Kulikefu Finefeuiaki dropping to the reserves.
Samoa Team News: No changes to Ben Gardiner's starting side. Jazz Tevaga is back on the interchange after missing the PNG game. Deine Mariner is listed among the reserves as he works back from the hamstring injury he suffered against France.
Tonga vs Samoa Team Lists
| Tonga | No. | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| Lehi Hopoate | 1 | |
| Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | 2 | Brian To'o |
| Tolutau Koula | 3 | Izack Tago |
| Robert Toia | 4 | |
| Jojo Fifita | 5 | |
| Tuimoala Lolohea | 6 | |
| Isaiya Katoa | 7 | Jarome Luai (c) |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | 8 | Francis Molo |
| Salesi Foketi | 9 | Benaiah Ioelu |
| Jason Taumalolo | 10 | Junior Paulo (c) |
| Haumole Olakau'atu | 11 | |
| Siua Wong | 12 | |
| Tyson Frizell | 13 | |
| Soni Luke | 14 | Jazz Tevaga |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | 15 | Spencer Leniu |
| Demitric Vaimauga | 16 | Shawn Blore |
| Taniela Paseka | 17 | Ata Mariota |
| Leka Halasima | 18 | Clayton Faulalo |
| Latu Fainu | 19 | Ronald Volkman |
| Paul Alamoti | 20 | Pasami Saulo |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 21 | Enari Tuala |
| Sione Katoa | 22 | Deine Mariner |
Verdict
Take either team by 1-12, the draw, and Fifita and Fa'alogo anytime.
1-12 pts
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