Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Rugby League World Cup Tips & Prediction - Kumuls can cover big line at home
Papua New Guinea are backed to cover a +30.5 line against Samoa in the Rugby League World Cup, citing a formidable home record in Port Moresby where they've won 15 of their last 16 Tests. Despite Samoa’s heavy win over France, the article notes their inconsistent play. Both teams have a history of low-scoring games, with under 59.5 points forecasted. The main conclusion is that while Samoa are likely to win, the match should be closer than bookmakers predict, and PNG are set to be strong at home.
- Papua New Guinea vs Samoa predictions for Saturday's Rugby League World Cup game
- PNG strong at home; backed to cover +30.5 line with Under 59.5 total points
- Fa'alago & Derby backed for tries on the wing
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 3.25pm AEDT on Saturday October 24
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Rugby League World Cup Tips & Prediction
Papua New Guinea have won 15 of their last 16 Test matches in Port Moresby & haven't leaked more than 43 points there since 2001 - they are backed to cover a big +30.5 line in a game that sees Under 59.5 total points in the Rugby League World Cup on Saturday afternoon.
Samoa almost certainly win this game, but the Kumuls have been offered up a huge line by the bookies and I'm keen to jump on it.
PNG always lift playing in front of their home fans - as mentioned, they've won 15 of their last 16 games in Port Moresby, while they were competitive in their most-recent meeting with Samoa: a 24-6 defeat in 2019. Jason Demetriou's team were also convincing 42-18 winners over Lebanon in their World Cup opener.
Samoa demolished France 78-4, but it was a relatively scrappy performances at times - they made 12 errors and were wasteful with the ball in hand. France were just utterly horrendous and have no business being at this World Cup.
So I think PNG to cover with a +30.5 start and Under 59.5 total points are good plays for what should be a closer contest than the bookies believe.
Sualauvi Fa'alogo ran riot on the wing for Samoa last week and could enjoy another prolific day here, while North Queensland Cowboys winger Robert Derby offers value for PNG.
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Stats & Trends
- PNG have won six of their last seven Tests
- PNG have seen Under 59.5 points in 13 of their last 19 Tests
- Samoa have lost seven of their last nine Tests
- Samoa have seen Under 59.5 points in 10 of their last 11 Tests
- Robert Derby has scored nine tries in his last nine games for PNG & scored last week vs Lebanon
- Sualauvi Fa'alogo starts on the wing & scored four tries vs France last week
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Head To Head
Samoa have won all three previous meetings.
All three have seen Under 59.5 total points, with PNG covering a +30.5 line in two.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Samoa | 24–6 | Leichhardt Oval |
| 2013 | Samoa | 38–4 | Craven Park |
| 2009 | Samoa | 26–18 | Apia Park |
Papua New Guinea Form Analysis
Great start to the World Cup for PNG - they dismantled Lebanon 42-18 last weekend in Port Moresby, which should give them confidence going into a much tougher test here.
Former Canterbury Bulldogs second-rower Rhyse Martin scored 18 of those points, scoring a try and kicking 7/7 conversions.
There were seven different tryscorers for PNG, illustrating their threat from all over the park. Robert Derby ran for a game-high 235 metres, registering two line breaks and scoring his ninth try in as many games for the Kumuls.
Samoa Form Analysis
Samoa absolutely obliterate France in their World Cup opener, dropping 78 points on their opponents and honestly, if not for some poor errors and ill-discipline, they could have racked up a century.
Sualauvi Fa'alogo reaped the rewards with four tries, six line breaks and 253 running metres after coming off the bench to replace Deine Mariner, who went off early with a hamstring injury.
Stephen Crichton converted 11 of 14 conversions as Samoa made an early statement.
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Team News
Bailey Biondi-Odo has been named to start at halfback again for PNG, but he only played 17 minutes off the bench in the win over Lebanon.
Epel Kapinias and Jack de Belin start in the forward pack, with Josh Feledy, Rodrick Tai and Khaiya Waiembi joining the interchange.
As mentioned, Fa'alogo starts on the wing for Samoa in place of the injured Mariner, with Ronald Volkman coming onto the interchange.
| PNG | Position | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| Morea Morea | 1 – Fullback | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow |
| Robert Derby | 2 – Winger | Brian To'o |
| Zac Laybutt | 3 – Centre | Izack Tago |
| Nene Macdonald | 4 – Centre | Stephen Crichton |
| Dudley Dotoi | 5 – Winger | Sualauvi Fa'alogo |
| Gairo Voro | 6 – Five-Eighth | Chanel Harris-Tavita |
| Bailey Biondi-Odo | 7 – Halfback | Jarome Luai (C) |
| Epel Kapinias | 8 – Prop | Francis Molo |
| Edwin Ipape | 9 – Hooker | Benaiah Ioelu |
| Luca Moretti | 10 – Prop | Junior Paulo |
| Rhyse Martin (C) | 11 – Second Row | Connelly Lemuelu |
| Nixon Putt | 12 – Second Row | Jermaine McEwen |
| Jack De Belin | 13 – Lock | Francis Manuleleua |
| Finley Glare | 14 – Interchange | Jazz Tevaga |
| Liam Horne | 15 – Interchange | Spencer Leniu |
| Valentine Richard | 16 – Interchange | Shawn Blore |
| Khaiya Waiembi | 17 – Interchange | Ata Mariota |
| Rodrick Tai | 18 – Interchange | Clayton Faulalo |
| Josh Feledy | 19 – Interchange | Ronald Volkman |
| Sylvester Namo | 20 – Reserve | Pasami Saulo |
| Sanny Wabo | 21 – Reserve | Enari Tuala |
| Zev John | 22 – Reserve | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava |
Verdict
Last week was a training run for Samoa - this will be a much tougher test. They probably still win, but PNG should be competitive at home.
PNG +30.5
Line
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