Tonga vs Lebanon Rugby League World Cup 2026 Tips & Predictions - Points on Offer
Tonga are strong favourites against Lebanon in the Rugby League World Cup 2026, with expert analysis pointing to a likely high-scoring result after Lebanon’s 42-18 loss to PNG and Tonga’s commanding win over England. However, the best value is seen in tryscorer markets, especially backing Tongan forwards and JoJo Fifita for multiple tries. Team changes see Tonga adjusting their lineup, while Lebanon makes only a minor tweak. The key recommendation is to focus on anytime tryscorers and related multis rather than handicap betting.
- Tonga are expected to record a big win against Lebanon, but the value is in the tryscorer market.
- Expert tips favour backing Tongan forwards and JoJo Fifita for anytime or multiple tries.
- Team changes may influence play, but betting recommendations focus on tryscorer and multi bets.
Tonga vs Lebanon Rugby League World Cup 2026 Tips
Tonga vs Lebanon Rugby League World Cup 2026 Expert Tips
Tonga are tipped to put on a cricket score against Lebanon but the value is in tryscorers not on the handicap.
- Tonga vs Lebanon Rugby League World Cup 2026 Expert Tips
- Tonga vs Lebanon Key Stats
- Tonga vs Lebanon Head to Head
- Tonga Form Analysis
- Lebanon Form Analysis
- Tonga vs Lebanon Team News
- Tonga vs Lebanon Team Lists
Lebanon were belted 42-18 by PNG in their 2026 Rugby League World Cup opener last weekend in Port Moresby. Now they are under the Friday night lights of Commbank Stadium against Tonga and a crowd that pushed the decibel meter in their first up victory over England.
Now it's quite likely they pass the line of -46.5 just based on the score PNG put up on Lebanon and the fact Tonga dismantled England. But with veteran Tui Lolohea having to come in at five-eighth and Isaiya Katoa aggravating his ankle injury in the win over England, I'm looking squarely at the tryscorer market just in case something happens with the little directors.
The Tongan forwards scored 3 of their 4 tries against England while Lebanon also allowed 4 of their 7 conceded tries to forwards. Targeting forwards for anytime tryscorers presents better value while we can look at a winger like JoJo Fifita for 2+ tries instead given his proclivity for multiple tryscoring efforts in the NRL.
Take Kulikefu Finefeuiaki to score anytime, Stefano Utoikamanu to repeat his tryscoring effort from last week with an anytime meat pie, JoJo Fifita for 2+ tries and a same game multi of Tonga -46.5, JoJo Fifita and Jacob Kiraz to each score in the game.
Tonga vs Lebanon Key Stats
- 7 of 11 combined tries from both these teams' first games came from forwards.
- JoJo Fifita has scored 2 or more tries in 8 of his last 17 games where he has scored at least once.
- Tonga completed at 78% and gave up 7 Linebreaks but still won by 18 pts against England.
- Lebanon gave up 9 Linebreaks to PNG, missed 41 tackles and had 15 errors in their loss.
Tonga vs Lebanon Head to Head
Tonga won the only previous head to head matchup between these nations in the 2017 World Cup quarter finals 24-22
Tonga Form Analysis
Tonga opened their World Cup Campaign in style with a 30-12 win over England in front of a boisterous crowd at HBF Park in Perth.
The Tongans took a 10-0 halftime lead and never relinquished their hold on the game despite just a 78% completion rate and five-eighth Latu Fainu lasting just 17 minutes on the park before straining his pectoral muscle.
They forced England into 17 errors and while the penalty count was even, Tonga were more disciplined in missed tackles and their end of set completions.
Lebanon Form Analysis
Lebanon lost their opening match of the World Cup to PNG in Port Moresby 42-18. The Kumuls got out to an early 6-0 lead after just 8 minutes but Lebanon were able to stabilise to go to the break down just 6 pts 18-12.
But it all became too much in the second half as they allowed their opponents to run in 4 tries to 1 to put the game out of reach. The difference in size and power across the board noticeable for the Cedars.
Lebanon managed just 1616 Run Metres while allowing 2052 to their oponent. They gave up 9 Linebreaks, had 41 missed tackles and committed 15 errors. No team is winning with those statlines.
Tonga vs Lebanon Team News
Tonga have made several changes for their second World Cup match, with Tuimoala Lolohea named at five-eighth and Latu Fainu shifting to the interchange despite suffering a pectoral injury against England.
Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti come into the starting backline, while Stefano Utoikamanu starts at prop and Jason Taumalolo moves to lock as Tyson Frizell is rested. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki joins the starting back row, with Siua Wong dropping to the reserves, while Taniela Paseka is set for his first appearance of the tournament from the bench.
Lebanon have made just one change to their starting side, promoting Moustafa Dirani to hooker with Yehya Ayache moving to the interchange.
Tonga vs Lebanon Team Lists
| Tonga | No. | Lebanon |
|---|---|---|
| Lehi Hopoate | 1 | Jacob Kiraz |
| Sione Katoa | 2 | Tony Francis |
| Tolutau Koula | 3 | Michael Gabrael |
| Paul Alamoti | 4 | Jordan Samrani |
| Jojo Fifita | 5 | Jason Saab |
| Tuimoala Lolohea | 6 | Khaled Rajab |
| Isaiya Katoa | 7 | Alex Conti |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | 8 | Jaxson Rahme |
| Salesi Foketi | 9 | Moustafa Dirani |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | 10 | James Roumanos |
| Haumole Olakau'atu | 11 | Tony Sukkar |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 12 | Mikael Ibrahim |
| Jason Taumalolo | 13 | Alex Twal |
| Soni Luke | 14 | Yehya Ayache |
| Taniela Paseka | 15 | Tupou Francis |
| Demitric Vaimauga | 16 | Jalal Bazzaz |
| Leka Halasima | 17 | Khalil Rahme |
| Latu Fainu | 18 | Joseph Nohra |
| Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | 19 | Abbas Miski |
| Talatau Amone | 20 | Ibrahim El Labban |
| Robert Toia | 21 | Mohamed Alameddine |
| Siua Wong | 22 | Cameron Kanaan |
Verdict
Take Kulikefu Finefeuiaki to score anytime, Stefano Utoikamanu to repeat his tryscoring effort from last week with an anytime meat pie, JoJo Fifita for 2+ tries and a same game multi of Tonga -46.5, JoJo Fifita and Jacob Kiraz to each score in the game.
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