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Cox Plate 2026 Betting Tips - Sir Delius Ready for His Crowning Moment?

Alex Marsh

Editor

Last updated: Wed. 21 Oct. 2026 14:35

Alex Marsh 21 Oct. 2026

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Sir Delius is favourite for the 2026 Cox Plate and is tipped to peak third-up at Flemington
Aeliana is highly rated for her proven stamina and top recent performances under Chris Waller and James McDonald
Blind Raise, a three-year-old, offers each-way value after a brave Caulfield Guineas run

Expired

Sir Delius winning the 2026 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. (Getty)

The Cox Plate is widely regarded as the greatest two minutes in Australian racing, with the iconic 2040m weight-for-age contest long established as a centrepiece of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival.

2026 Cox Plate Tips
2026 Cox Plate - Field & Odds

Traditionally staged at the cauldron of Moonee Valley, the 2026 edition moves to Flemington due to the ongoing redevelopment of the Valley circuit, adding an intriguing new dimension to Australia's weight-for-age championship.

Sir Delius heads the betting for the 2026 Cox Plate as a $4.20 favourite with Dabble.

2026 Cox Plate Tips

2026 Cox Plate Best Bet - Sir Delius

Was Sir Delius a touch underwhelming as a beaten favourite in the Turnbull Stakes? Perhaps, particularly judged against his starting price, but connections have made it clear throughout the campaign that the Cox Plate has been the main target, with the son of Frankel set to peak third-up on Saturday.

He looks one capable of bouncing out of that demanding Turnbull Stakes, where he finished fourth on a Heavy 8 after finding the 1600m too sharp first-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes. Three weeks between runs is another positive, and he now returns to 2040m with the benefit of two conditioning runs under his belt.

His previous third-up performances are particularly compelling, most recently when proving too strong for Lindermann over 2000m in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes during the autumn, with Autumn Glow suffering her only career defeat in that high-pressure contest. He also produced a career-best Australian performance third-up last spring, dominating a strong Turnbull Stakes field before his Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup campaigns were abandoned after veterinary scans identified a heightened injury risk.

Barrier five looks ideal for Craig Williams, particularly with several of the early speed influences drawn wider, giving him options to settle in the first two or three pairs with cover. That tactical flexibility could prove important in what shapes as a genuinely run Cox Plate, allowing him to conserve energy before launching his challenge in the straight.

The prospect of another rain-affected surface adds some uncertainty after his Turnbull defeat, although his overseas form on testing ground was excellent, and he may simply have needed that second-up outing. While he hasn't looked quite as imposing as in previous Australian campaigns, there's every reason to expect further improvement, and with the Cox Plate clearly his grand final, Sir Delius gets his chance to produce his best.

2026 Cox Plate Next Best Bet - Aeliana

For a mare who could well be Australia's best stayer, it's remarkable that Aeliana has raced over 2400m just twice, winning both times at Group 1 level. The first came in the 2025 Australian Derby, where she absolutely bolted in fourth-up, and that staying ability could prove a major asset in Saturday's Cox Plate.

After a disappointing spring campaign last year, the Chris Waller-trained mare returned to her best in Sydney during the autumn, defeating Lindermann in the Ranvet Stakes over 2000m before again peaking fourth-up to overcome international star Dubai Honour in the Tancred Stakes over 2400m. Those performances underlined her quality as a genuine stayer capable of handling Australia's best middle-distance opposition.

She's responded well from an underwhelming spring resumption behind Autumn Glow in The 7 Stakes on September 19, improving into third behind Cosmic Crusader in the Turnbull Stakes. She enjoyed a favourable run there and was entitled to finish where she did, but it's another positive step towards peak fitness, and she now looks ready for a more demanding assignment.

Her staying strength could prove decisive in what shapes as a fast-run, testing Cox Plate, and few are better equipped for the challenge than Waller and James McDonald. The pair have combined to win the past two editions, with McDonald chasing an extraordinary fifth consecutive Cox Plate victory and Waller looking to equal T.J. Smith's record of seven wins in the race.

Barrier 10 is awkward and could force McDonald to settle a few pairs further back than ideal, although the expected early pressure should give him an opportunity to find cover before building into the race. The long Flemington straight offers time to wind up, and if this develops into the searching staying test anticipated, Aeliana has the class and stamina to make her presence felt, potentially before a Melbourne Cup tilt.

2026 Cox Plate Value Bet - Blind Raise

An open Cox Plate brings the three-year-olds firmly into contention, and while Warwoven holds the advantage after completing the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas double, there was plenty to like about the performance of Blind Raise when runner-up to his fellow colt at Caulfield on October 10.

The Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young-trained youngster couldn't have been much braver on the speed, pestered throughout by outsider Seraphox, while Warwoven enjoyed a more economical passage behind the leaders before producing the stronger finish. Blind Raise eventually went down by 1.75 lengths, but the bare margin doesn't tell the full story of his effort.

Seraphox weakened to finish more than 18 lengths away, Tornado Valley (box-seat) was beaten nearly 14 lengths after racing among the leading division, and Tron Bolt finished over 8.5 lengths from the winner. Those results add considerable merit to Blind Raise's performance, with the colt absorbing the early pressure, finding another kick in the straight and proving comfortably the best of those who raced prominently.

He draws barrier nine here with Jamie Melham taking the ride at just 49.5kg, and the main early speed influences, Land Legend and Light Infantry Man, have both drawn further out. That could allow Blind Raise to roll forward before looking for a trail behind that pair, rather than becoming involved in another taxing speed battle, while the substantial weight advantage over the older horses is another important consideration.

It's always a significant test for a three-year-old taking on the established weight-for-age performers in a Cox Plate, but Blind Raise has done little wrong with four wins from six starts. His only finish outside the first two came when genuine excuses emerged in Brisbane before a spell, and with his Guineas effort better than the result suggests, he's a big price, especially in comparison to Warwoven.

2026 Cox Plate - Field & Odds

No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Barrier	Weight	Odds
1	Ceolwulf (NZ)	Joseph Pride	Chad Schofield	3	59kg	$7
2	Light Infantry Man (FR)	Ciaron Maher	Harry Coffey	11	59kg	$26
3	Sir Delius (GB)	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	Craig Williams	5	59kg	$4.20
4	Attrition	Mitchell Freedman	Jamie Mott	4	59kg	$51
5	Cosmic Crusader (NZ)	Andrea Leek	William Pike	8	59kg	$7.50
6	Birdman (IRE)	Chris Waller	Ben Melham	1	59kg	$11
7	Land Legend (FR)	Ciaron Maher	Ethan Brown	12	59kg	$41
8	Middle Earth (GB)	Ciaron Maher	Mark Zahra	7	59kg	$126
9	Saint George (GB)	Ciaron Maher	Blake Shinn	6	59kg	$21
10	Aeliana (NZ)	Chris Waller	James McDonald	10	57kg	$4.60
11	Warwoven	Bjorn Baker	Rachel King	2	49.5kg	$4.40
12	Blind Raise (NZ)	Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	Jamie Melham	9	49.5kg	$14

Odds provided by Dabble & correct on 22/10/2026.

Verdict

Cox Plate

Our tips for the 2026 Cox Plate are:

Sir Delius

To Win

$4.20 - 4 Units

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Aeliana

To Win

$4.60 - 2 Units

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Bet at dabble

Blind Raise

Each Way

$14.00 - 1 Unit

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with referral code BETSAU