Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini ATP Paris Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Berrettini can push Alcaraz in R16
Carlos Alcaraz faces Matteo Berrettini in the Paris Masters, with Berrettini tipped to cover a +4.5 games handicap. Berrettini has won four of his last five matches, including victories over Nakashima and Humbert, and has taken at least one set in all four previous meetings with Alcaraz. Both players frequently play tiebreaks, making over 0.5 tiebreaks another recommended market. While Alcaraz is the favourite, his record at the Paris Masters is modest, and Berrettini's current form and big serve on indoor courts suggest he can keep the match close.
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Thursday's ATP Paris R16
- Berrettini can cover +4.5 line - has taken 1+ set in all four previous meetings
- Both players trending with tiebreaks; Berrettini offers lot of value for the upset
- The match is scheduled to start around 5.00am AEDT on Friday November 6
Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Berrettini Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Paris. T&Cs apply.
Watch and bet
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Note, under Australian law, Live Streaming is exempt from Parts 3 and 4 of the Broadcasting Services (Online Content Service Provider Rules) 2018.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini ATP Paris Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Matteo Berrettini can cover a +4.5 line when he comes up against Carlos Alcaraz at the Paris Masters on Thursday night, with value on at least one tiebreak and an outright upset for the resurgent Italian.
The Paris Masters is always a funny tournament filled with upsets as players come to the end of another long and gruelling season. As such, there's only two top 10 players remaining heading into the R16 and Alcaraz could just be the next victim.
The Spaniard has only been past the R16 once at this tournament, while Berrettini has been playing some big tennis over the last fortnight. I'm taking the Italian to cover with a big start, while I'm also liking 1+ tiebreak at plus money. Small stake on the upset, with Berrettini taking a set in all four previous meetings.
Alcaraz vs Berrettini Predictions & Best Bets
| Bet | Odds | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Berrettini +4.5 | $1.90 @ BetRaven | Berrettini has won four of his last five matches, including big wins over Nakashima & Humbert this week, while he's taken 1+ set in all four previous meetings vs Alcaraz - indoors, this is a big start for the Italian |
| Over 0.5 Tiebreaks | $2.50 @ Dabble | Berrettini has seen 1+ tiebreak in 11 of his last 12 completed matches, while Alcaraz has seen 1+ tiebreak in 11 of his last 14 outings. The pair have played four total tiebreaks in their four previous encounters |
| Berrettini Win | $6.00 @ CrownBet | Alcaraz obviously the big favourite, but he's never won the Paris Masters & been past the R16 only once. He's lost four of his last six matches at the tournament. Berrettini is 2-2 vs top 10 players this year & has the weapons + big serve to do damage on fast indoor courts. Not the worst $6.00 bet you'll ever make |
Alcaraz vs Berrettini Head To Head
Alcaraz leads 3-1, but this will be their first meeting in over three years.
| Year | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wimbledon | Round of 16 | Outdoor Grass | Carlos Alcaraz | 3–6, 6–3, 6–3, 6–3 |
| 2022 | Rio de Janeiro | Quarter-Final | Outdoor Clay | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–2, 2–6, 6–2 |
| 2022 | Australian Open | Round of 32 | Outdoor Hard | Matteo Berrettini | 6–2, 7–6(7–3), 4–6, 2–6, 7–6(10–5) |
| 2021 | Vienna | Quarter-Final | Indoor Hard | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–1, 6–7(2–7), 7–6(7–5) |
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 39-5
- ATP Paris Record: 6-5
- Current Ranking: No. 3
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)
It's been a strong comeback from a wrist injury for Alcaraz - he's won 17 of his 19 matches since returning to action, picking up titles in Tokyo and last week in Vienna.
Alcaraz's level was very high in that Vienna final, where he crushed Alex de Minaur for the loss of just five games.
Usually burnt out after a long season at this stage of the year, Alcaraz is fresh after four months on the sidelines and eager to win a maiden Paris Masters and also take out the ATP Finals in Turin.
Still, the Spaniard suffers from concentration lapses - he gave up a break lead in the first set and was down 1-4 in the ensuing tiebreak against Alex Michelsen before reeling off six straight points and completing a 7-6(4), 6-3 victory, improving to 11-0 in opening matches for the year.
Matteo Berrettini Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 22-18
- ATP Paris Record: 2-3
- Current Ranking: No. 43
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2022)
Berrettini is usually suffering from injuries at this stage of the year, hence why he'd never won a match at the Paris Masters before arriving at this year's tournament (0-3 lifetime).
However, for the first time in a while, the Italian appears to be operating with a clean bill of health.
The former World No. 6 played well to make the Vienna quarter-finals last week before going down to De Minaur and he's continued that form so far in the French capital.
Berrettini prevailed in a deciding set tiebreak to edge out Brandon Nakashima 6-4 3-6 7-6(8) before taking out former finalist, home hope and indoors specialist Ugo Humbert, 7-6(3) 7-5.
Alcaraz vs Berrettini Live Stream
Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini live tennis from Paris.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Paris with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
Berrettini can cover a big +4.5 start indoors, with smaller stakes on a tiebreak & outright upset.
Berrettini +4.5
Games Line
$1.90 - 3 Units
Newest Australian Bookie
Referral Code: bets500
The BetRaven referral code is bets500. 18+. T&Cs apply.
Over 0.5
Total Tiebreaks
$2.50 - 1 Unit
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU
Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.
Berrettini Win
H2H
$6.00 - 1 Unit
Crownbet is built for the Big Moments
use referral code BETS
The CrownBet referral code is BETS. 18+. T&Cs apply. Chances are you're about to lose.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
05 November 2026
- Flemington- November 5 -
- Horse Racing
- Gawler - November 5 -
- Horse Racing
- VRC Oaks -
- Horse Racing
- Gosford - November 5 -
- Horse Racing
- Ipswich - November 5 -
- Horse Racing
- Belmont - November 5 -
- Horse Racing
- Cairns Taipans vs Illawarra Hawks -
- Basketball
- Lion City vs Adelaide United -
- Soccer
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Rinky Hijikata -
- Tennis
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini -
- Tennis
06 November 2026
- Tasmania JackJumpers vs New Zealand Breakers -
- Basketball
- Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners -
- Soccer
07 November 2026
- Auckland FC v Wellington Phoenix -
- Soccer
- Champions Mile -
- Horse Racing
- Champions Sprint -
- Horse Racing
- Champions Stakes -
- Horse Racing
- Supercars Sandown 500 -
- Motor Sport
- Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers -
- Soccer
- New Zealand vs Tonga -
- Rugby League
Load More
