Saturday’s major meetings throw up several runners at bigger prices who look capable of outperforming market expectations, with our five roughies coming from Eagle Farm, Flemington, Kalgoorlie, Murray Bridge and Randwick.
Eagle Farm Roughie Tip
Eagle Farm Roughie - Race 4 No. 11 Glounthaune
The eight-year-old has had a few homes during his career and is now with Gold Coast trainer Kelly Purdy, producing a pass-mark performance on stable debut at the Gold Coast on September 19 when ninth over 1400m after beginning awkwardly.
This is an aggressive placement stepping into BM78 company off his current rating, but Glounthaune has always possessed more ability than the raw number suggests and showed that when winning a Randwick Midway for Gregory Hickman in April last year.
His following preparation never really came together, although the winter form in New South Wales before heading north was far from hopeless, and the drop to the 52kg minimum gives him a significant weight advantage over many of these.
Angela Jones takes the ride from barrier four and, with Glounthaune capable of producing a strong finish when things fall his way, the spacious Eagle Farm circuit gives him some appeal at a big price.
Flemington Roughie Tip
Flemington Roughie - Race 5 No. 4 Cilacap
A strong previous preparation gives Cilacap some appeal first-up, having progressed through the grades before culminating with victory in the Group 2 Queen Of The South Stakes at Morphettville.
The Grahame Begg-trained mare has been given a solid grounding through September and has shown previously that she can sprint well fresh, making 1400m a suitable starting point for her return.
Her soft-ground record is another positive, with three wins and a third from four starts on that surface, including a first-up victory over this track and trip, which gives her a strong profile for Saturday’s assignment.
Heavy ground remains the obvious unknown, but if conditions do not deteriorate too far, she has enough class and fresh form to make her presence felt at a bigger price in a competitive race.
Kalgoorlie Roughie Tip
Kalgoorlie Roughie - Race 8 No. 9 Royal Law
This looks to have been an early-campaign target for Royal Law, with the Ashley Maley-trained gelding resuming in the Listed Farnley Stakes over 1400m on September 5 when effectively allowed to use the race as a fitness-builder.
He was still short of his best second-up over 1600m at Belmont a fortnight later, but the effort was much more encouraging as he rolled forward to lead before fitness told late, finishing less than three lengths from Correct Choice.
Saturday’s rise to a staying trip is far more suitable, with his record over longer journeys highlighted by a dominant Geraldton Cup win over 2106m in April and his runner-up finish in last year’s Kalgoorlie Cup behind Sentimental Hero, who subsequently placed in the Group 1 Railway Stakes.
Natasha Faithfull should get every opportunity to find a rhythm from barrier five, and Royal Law can give a strong sight at an each-way price.
Murray Bridge Roughie Tip
Murray Bridge Roughie - Race 2 No. 8 Vandaross
A very good South Australian family gives Vandaross some pedigree appeal, with the locally trained three-year-old coming from a family that includes Group 1 winner Serious Speed and six-time stakes winner Majestic Music.
Saturday marks the first time the Matthew Sayers-trained gelding drops into maiden company after being given some ambitious placements throughout his two-year-old season, including a Group 3 placing in April and a start in the Magic Millions Two-Year-Old Classic at Murray Bridge.
He may eventually appreciate getting over further ground, but 1200m looks a suitable starting point and his recent work suggests he is forward enough to make his presence felt fresh.
A quieter 950m jump-out was followed by a more searching piece of work when winning his latest heat, and back at maiden level he looks a forgotten horse.
Randwick Roughie Tip
Randwick Roughie - Race 10 No. 7 Navy Pilot
A big price is available for Navy Pilot in the Randwick finale, and the Ciaron Maher-trained four-year-old looks better suited switching tracks after an encouraging first-up performance.
He was against the race pattern when resuming at Rosehill on September 12 but still worked home well for third, recording the fastest last 600m of the entire program.
His previous campaign was mixed but bookended by wins, including a strong return and another confidence-building victory at Doomben in July, while the class was evident through his two- and early three-year-old seasons.
Keeping him to the shorter sprint trips could be the key and, with Adam Hyeronimus taking over, Navy Pilot gets a setup that should allow him to settle and finish off strongly at a generous price in what looks a very open finale.