Turnbull Stakes Form Guide - What The Last Five Years Tell Us

Kristen Manning

Editor

Last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026 09:20

Kristen Manning 1 hour ago

Share this article

How the last five Turnbull Stakes fields performed later in the spring
The runners who went on to win or place in major races after Flemington
Key form lines leading into the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup

Incentivise powers to victory in the 2021 Turnbull Stakes. (Getty)

As a set weights and penalties event, the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) presents a different test to many of the spring’s other major races — and the form coming out of Flemington can sometimes be difficult to read.

2025 - Sir Delius
Subsequent Spring Winners
Subsequent Spring Placegetters
2024 - Via Sistina
Subsequent Spring Winners
Subsequent Spring Placegetters
2023 - Gold Trip
Subsequent Spring Winners
Subsequent Spring Placegetters
2022 - Smokin' Romans
Subsequent Spring Winners
Subsequent Spring Placegetters
2021 - Incentivise
Subsequent Spring Winners
Subsequent Spring Placegetters
What The Turnbull Form Tells Us

Some runners use the Turnbull as the launching pad for major victories later in the carnival, while others improve sharply once they step up in distance, strike different conditions or reach their main spring target.

With that in mind, we’ve gone back through the past five editions to see how the Turnbull runners performed for the remainder of the spring.

2025 - Sir Delius

After failing the Melbourne Cup X-rays, last year's Turnbull winner — and favourite for this Saturday's edition — Sir Delius headed to the paddock.

The now-retired runner-up Antino had just one more start for the spring, finishing at the rear of the field in the Cox Plate.

Third-placed Via Sistina boxed on well in the Turnbull before winning the Cox Plate for the second time. She then retired on a winning note by taking out the Champions Stakes at her following start.

Half Yours, who again lines up this year, was a fast-finishing fourth in the Turnbull before producing his memorable Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double at his next two starts.

Fellow 2026 Turnbull runner Aeliana was also doing her best work late when fifth last year. Her only other spring run came in the Cox Plate, where she finished an unlucky sixth.

Deakin also returns to Flemington on Saturday after finishing just behind Aeliana in last year's Turnbull. He was unplaced but far from disgraced in the Caulfield Cup at his only other spring start.

Middle Earth, another returning runner this year, was slowly away 12 months ago and finished unplaced in both the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup before improving to run third in the Melbourne Cup.

River Of Stars was held up until the 300m when unplaced in the Turnbull before producing excellent runs in the two Cups, finishing second in the Caulfield Cup and fourth in the Melbourne Cup.

Golden Path was plain in the Turnbull but improved at his next start to finish second in the Group 2 Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day.

Subsequent Spring Winners

Via Sistina: Cox Plate, Champions Stakes

Half Yours: Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup

Subsequent Spring Placegetters

Middle Earth: 3rd Melbourne Cup

River Of Stars: 2nd Caulfield Cup

Golden Path: 2nd Crystal Mile

2024 - Via Sistina

As she did the following year, Via Sistina won the Turnbull before going on to complete the Cox Plate-Champions Stakes double.

After his game second behind her, Buckaroo started favourite in the Caulfield Cup and was gallant in defeat when runner-up to Duke De Sessa, who had made the pace when finishing fourth in the Turnbull.

Eliyass was a solid on-pace third at Flemington but proved disappointing at his subsequent outings.

Sixth-placed Atishu was not far away in the Turnbull and finished third in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes at her next start before winning the Empire Rose Stakes and finishing second behind Via Sistina in the Champions Stakes.

Circle Of Fire was just even when finishing outside the placings but, two starts later, produced a solid sixth in the Melbourne Cup.

Sharp 'N' Smart tired after working hard out wide in the Turnbull but was back in form at his next start, finishing third in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup.

Bringing up the tail of the field at cricket-score odds on rain-affected ground was a horse who found his preferred firmer footing a month later — Melbourne Cup winner Knight's Choice.

Subsequent Spring Winners

Via Sistina: Cox Plate, Champions Stakes

Atishu: Empire Rose Stakes

Knight's Choice: Melbourne Cup

Subsequent Spring Placegetters

Buckaroo: 2nd Caulfield Cup

Atishu: 3rd Caulfield Stakes, 2nd Champions Stakes

Sharp 'N' Smart: 3rd Moonee Valley Cup

Via pic — Via Sistina defeats Buckaroo to win the 2024 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. (Getty)

2023 - Gold Trip

The Turnbull proved to be the final victory for the previous year's Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip, who went on to run excellent races when third in the Caulfield Cup and fifth in the Cox Plate.

Runner-up West Wind Blows produced a big effort after taking on the leader and working hard. He held that form at Caulfield next time out, where he was narrowly beaten by Without A Fight in the Caulfield Cup.

Strong along the rails when finishing third was Soulcombe, who blew the start in the Caulfield Cup before producing a game performance at Flemington, weaving through the field to finish second to Without A Fight in the Melbourne Cup.

A rather accomplished horse finished fourth that day on his Australian debut — Hong Kong star Romantic Warrior.

He followed that performance with a determined Cox Plate victory over Mr Brightside before embarking on a remarkable international winning sequence, winning his next seven races across Hong Kong, Japan and Dubai.

Duke De Sessa was a fair sixth in the Turnbull and finished that spring with placings in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Group 2 Sandown Classic.

Also outside the placings was Right You Are, who ran a good fifth in the Caulfield Cup before going amiss in the Melbourne Cup and subsequently being retired.

Subsequent Spring Winners

Romantic Warrior: Cox Plate

Subsequent Spring Placegetters

Gold Trip: 3rd Caulfield Cup

West Wind Blows: 2nd Caulfield Cup

Soulcombe: 2nd Melbourne Cup

Duke De Sessa: 3rd Queen Elizabeth Stakes, 3rd Sandown Classic

2022 - Smokin' Romans

Smokin' Romans was not disgraced in the Cups at his next two starts after winning the Turnbull, while runner-up Maximal lost form after his Flemington performance.

Third home Young Werther, who would ultimately line up in four consecutive Turnbull Stakes, also failed to carry the form forward that spring.

Fourth-placed Knights Order fared better, taking the lead in the Caulfield Cup at his next start and fighting on gamely for third.

Gold Trip was game after covering ground when fifth in the Turnbull. He then finished second in the Caulfield Cup, endured an unlucky run in the Cox Plate and was two lengths too good for his rivals in the Melbourne Cup.

Just behind him at Flemington was Luncies, who was caught wide from an outside barrier in the Geelong Cup at his next start before finishing runner-up in both the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Sandown Classic.

Surefire settled too far back when unplaced in the Turnbull but found strong form afterwards, finishing second to subsequent Melbourne Cup runner-up Emissary in the Geelong Cup before winning the Group 3 Hotham Handicap as an odds-on favourite on Derby Day.

Milford was never a threat after an awkward start and remained out of form for another couple of runs before taking out the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes.

Also well back in the Turnbull was Crystal Pegasus, who two starts later finished third in Surefire's Hotham Handicap.

Last home Hezashocka also put together a respectable remainder of his spring, finishing fourth and third in the Group 3 Craven Plate and Rosehill Cup respectively before returning to Melbourne to finish third in the Champions Stakes behind Zaaki and Mo'unga, beating home Anamoe.

Subsequent Spring Winners

Gold Trip: Melbourne Cup

Surefire: Hotham Handicap

Milford: Eclipse Stakes

Subsequent Spring Placegetters

Knights Order: 3rd Caulfield Cup

Gold Trip: 2nd Caulfield Cup

Luncies: 2nd Queen Elizabeth Stakes, 2nd Sandown Classic

Surefire: 2nd Geelong Cup

Crystal Pegasus: 3rd Hotham Handicap

Hezashocka: 3rd Champions Stakes

romans turnbull — Smokin' Romans wins the 2022 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. (Getty)

2021 - Incentivise

The Turnbull formed part of a remarkable spring for the brilliant Incentivise, whose Flemington victory followed his success in the Makybe Diva Stakes.

He then produced a dominant performance to win the Caulfield Cup before finishing second to Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup.

Verry Elleegant also contested that year's Turnbull, finishing fourth after racing a little greenly, as she was sometimes inclined to do. She followed that effort with a third in the Cox Plate before winning the Melbourne Cup in front of a reduced crowd during the Covid period.

Third-placed Chapada, a son of Frankel's brother Bullet Train, ran a solid sixth in the Caulfield Cup at his following start.

Persan beat only a couple of runners home in the Turnbull but improved sharply next time out to finish third in the Caulfield Cup.

Subsequent Spring Winners

Incentivise: Caulfield Cup

Verry Elleegant: Melbourne Cup

Subsequent Spring Placegetters

Incentivise: 2nd Melbourne Cup

Verry Elleegant: 3rd Cox Plate

Persan: 3rd Caulfield Cup

What The Turnbull Form Tells Us

The past five editions underline why the Turnbull can be such an intriguing race from a form perspective.

Winning the race is obviously no guarantee that a horse will dominate the remainder of the spring, while runners beaten at Flemington have repeatedly improved when stepping into their preferred target races.

The most striking examples have come from horses such as Half Yours, who went from fourth in the 2025 Turnbull to winning both Cups, Knight's Choice, who finished last in 2024 before winning the Melbourne Cup, and Gold Trip, who ran fifth in 2022 before taking out Australia's biggest race.

At the same time, genuine weight-for-age stars have used the Turnbull as an important stepping stone. Via Sistina followed her 2024 and 2025 Turnbull performances with major Group 1 success, while Romantic Warrior progressed from fourth in 2023 to Cox Plate glory at his very next start.

It means Saturday's Turnbull should be viewed as more than simply a race to find the winner. With several runners heading towards the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup, the performances further down the field could prove just as important as the result itself.