Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Can Demon respond from flat opener?

De Minaur has traditionally lifted representing Australia in the United Cup - he's beaten the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev in these conditions, while he also won his maiden ATP title in Sydney. However, it was an uncharacteristically flat performance from de Minaur in his opening match on the weekend, suffering a straight sets loss to Casper Ruud. De Minaur served horribly and was no match for Ruud from the back of the court. Meanwhile, Mensik got his season off to a brilliant start, dispatching Ruud in straight sets, showcasing some of the form and talent that saw him take out the Miami Masters as a teenager last year.

Taking the first match from both into consideration, I can't back De Minaur as a $1.30 favourite here. Yes, the Aussie leads the H2H 4-0, but every match is different and Demon is already under lots of pressure to perform here in front of his home crowd as Australia looks to avoid another United Cup group stage elimination. Demon's serving against Ruud was abysmal, probably the worst I've ever seen from him, hitting eight double faults and winning just 14 points behind his second delivery. I'm taking Mensik with a +3.5 games start, Over 21.5 total games and a smaller stake on the 20-year-old to deliver the upset.

It was another successful season for De Minaur in 2025 - he ranked inside the top five for most match wins on hardcourt, securing his 10th career title in Washington and making Grand Slam quarter-finals at the Australian and US Opens.

De Minaur also made his maiden Masters 1000 semi-final on clay in Monte Carlo and advanced to the semi-finals of the year-end ATP Finals, where he was once again thwarted by Jannik Sinner.

The challenge now for Demon is taking that next step and finding the weapons/firepower that can trouble the likes of Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

However, it wasn't a great start for de Minaur in his United Cup opener - he suffered a disappointing 6-3 6-3 defeat to Casper Ruud. Serving was a big issue for the Aussie - he had just 55 per cent of first serves and struck eight double faults, while he also went 0-5 on break points, which is concerning for a returner of his capability.

Mensik is well and truly a future Grand Slam contender and who's to say the 20-year-old can't go deep at one of the majors in 2026?

The man from Czechia has already secured Masters 1000 silverware, conquering Novak Djokovic in the final of Miami last year.

It was a relatively quiet year for Mensik after that triumph, but he already looks ready and eager to go in 2026 if his opening United Cup performance is any indication.

Mensik produced a brilliant performance to edge out Ruud 7-5 7-5 in his tournament debut, sending down 16 aces and winning 78 per cent of his first serves.

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik live United Cup tennis from Sydney.

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