New Zealand vs Australia Bledisloe Cup Game 1 Tips & Prediction - All Blacks to extend incredible unbeaten streak at Eden Park

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Last updated: Thu 08 Oct 2026 06:33

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All Blacks vs Wallabies predictions for Saturday's Bledisloe Cup Game 1
Wallabies in great form, but All Blacks hold dominant record at Eden Park
Australia can cover a +13.5 start, but New Zealand tipped 1-12
The game is scheduled for kick off at 5.10pm AEDT on Saturday October 10

New Zealand vs Australia Bledisloe Cup Game 1 Tips & Prediction

The 2026 Bledisloe Cup gets underway at Eden Park on Saturday October 10, with the Wallabies arriving in Auckland in their best stretch of form for some time and facing an All Blacks side coming off a difficult tour of South Africa.

New Zealand vs Australia Bledisloe Cup Game 1 Tips & Prediction
All Blacks vs Wallabies Stats & Trends
All Blacks Form Analysis
Wallabies Form Analysis
All Blacks vs Wallabies Team News
All Blacks vs Wallabies - Best Bets

Australia have won five and drawn one of their past six Tests, culminating in a 42-38 victory over South Africa in Perth. New Zealand, meanwhile, lost their four-Test series against the Springboks 3-1 and return home with several key figures unavailable.

That creates an intriguing backdrop to a fixture New Zealand have dominated historically. The All Blacks have won their past 11 Tests against Australia, while the Wallabies haven't beaten New Zealand at Eden Park since 1986. New Zealand's unbeaten run at the venue itself stretches back to 1994.

The market still expects the All Blacks to win comfortably, with New Zealand around a 13.5-point favourite. However, Australia's improvement under Les Kiss combined with New Zealand's injuries makes this a more interesting contest than that historical dominance might initially suggest.

All Blacks vs Wallabies Stats & Trends

Australia are unbeaten in their past six Tests, winning five and drawing one. That run consists of wins over Japan (35-32 and 56-17), Argentina (27-21), a 28-28 draw with Argentina and a 42-38 victory over South Africa
The Wallabies have scored 188 points across those six matches, averaging 31.3 points per game
Australia haven't defeated New Zealand since 2020 and haven't won at Eden Park since 1986
New Zealand are protecting a remarkable 53-Test unbeaten streak at Eden Park, with their last defeat at the ground coming in 1994
The All Blacks have won their past 11 Tests against Australia

All Blacks Form Analysis

The All Blacks don't enter the Bledisloe Cup with their usual momentum after losing three of four Tests against South Africa. They have also spent their past eight matches on the road, making Saturday their first opportunity in some time to return to the familiarity of Eden Park.

Home ground advantage is difficult to ignore.

New Zealand haven't lost at Eden Park since 1994, while Australia haven't won there for 40 years. Whatever questions surround the All Blacks' current form, their record in Auckland remains one of international rugby's most imposing trends.

Their backline still contains enormous attacking quality.

Cam Roigard starts at scrumhalf, Damian McKenzie moves into the No.10 jersey, while Jordie Barrett and Quinn Tupaea form the midfield. Leroy Carter and Will Jordan start on the wings with Beauden Barrett at fullback.

McKenzie's selection is particularly important because New Zealand have been forced to change their plans at flyhalf. Richie Mo'unga suffered a calf injury in training and has been ruled out of both Bledisloe Tests, while Ruben Love is also unavailable with an ankle injury.

There should still be opportunities for New Zealand to hurt Australia in transition. The Wallabies have become a much more dangerous attacking team, but that ambition can create turnover opportunities, and an All Blacks back three containing Jordan and Beauden Barrett is equipped to punish loose kicking or broken defensive structures.

Wallabies Form Analysis

Australia's recent form gives them legitimate reason to believe they can make this a contest.

After beginning their Nations Championship campaign with defeats to Ireland and France, Les Kiss' side responded by beating Italy 57-10 and have not lost since. Two wins over Japan were followed by a productive trip to Argentina, where Australia won 27-21 before drawing the second Test 28-28.

The biggest statement came last time out.

Australia defeated South Africa 42-38 in Perth, continuing a run in which their attack has consistently generated points. The Wallabies have scored at least 27 points in each of their past six Tests and have passed 40 three times during that sequence.

There is considerably more attacking threat in this Australian backline than we've seen from many recent Wallabies teams. Tom Wright offers a dangerous running option from fullback, while Max Jorgensen and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii provide athleticism on the wings. Len Ikitau has also been cleared to start after overcoming the ankle problem he picked up against South Africa.

The challenge is translating that form to Eden Park.

Australia's 42 points against South Africa were impressive, but conceding 38 highlights the other side of the equation. Giving New Zealand the same quantity of attacking opportunities in Auckland is unlikely to end well.

There are also changes to the Wallabies' available personnel. Taniela Tupou and Tom Hooper have returned to their European clubs because these Tests fall outside the Regulation 9 international release window, while Paisami is suspended. Massimo De Lutiis comes onto the bench and Isaac Henry replaces Paisami at outside centre.

Still, Kiss has retained 14 of the 15 starters from the South Africa victory. That continuity is significant for a team playing with confidence.

All Blacks vs Wallabies Team News

Australia have made only one change to the starting XV that defeated South Africa.

Isaac Henry replaces the suspended Hunter Paisami at outside centre and partners Len Ikitau, who has recovered from his ankle concern. Ryan Lonergan and Ben Donaldson remain the halves, while Suaalii, Jorgensen and Wright comprise the back three.

The starting forward pack is unchanged, with Angus Bell, Brandon Paenga-Amosa and Allan Alaalatoa in the front row, Jeremy Williams and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto at lock and Rob Valetini, Fraser McReight and captain Harry Wilson forming the back row.

New Zealand have more significant changes to negotiate.

Ardie Savea is unavailable after undergoing shoulder surgery, meaning Codie Taylor captains the side. Scott Barrett returns for his first All Blacks appearance since November 2025, while Shannon Frizell has been named among the replacements following his return from Japan.

Mo'unga's calf injury means McKenzie starts at flyhalf for the first time this season, with Beauden Barrett at fullback. Fehi Fineanganofo is also unavailable, while Quinn Tupaea returns from injury at outside centre.

All Blacks Starting XV

Position	Player
1	Ethan de Groot
2	Codie Taylor (c)
3	Fletcher Newell
4	Scott Barrett
5	Josh Lord
6	Tupou Vaa'i
7	Peter Lakai
8	Wallace Sititi
9	Cam Roigard
10	Damian McKenzie
11	Leroy Carter
12	Jordie Barrett
13	Quinn Tupaea
14	Will Jordan
15	Beauden Barrett

Wallabies Starting XV

Position	Player
1	Angus Bell
2	Brandon Paenga-Amosa
3	Allan Alaalatoa
4	Jeremy Williams
5	Lukhan Salakaia-Loto
6	Rob Valetini
7	Fraser McReight
8	Harry Wilson (c)
9	Ryan Lonergan
10	Ben Donaldson
11	Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
12	Len Ikitau
13	Isaac Henry
14	Max Jorgensen
15	Tom Wright

All Blacks vs Wallabies - Best Bets

1. Australia +13.5 @ $1.90

The Wallabies are the side we're prepared to take with the start.

New Zealand's extraordinary Eden Park record makes it difficult to tip against them outright, but laying close to two converted tries against an Australian team that has won five and drawn one of its past six Tests looks a much bigger ask.

Australia's attacking output is the biggest reason. They have scored 35, 56, 27, 28, 42 and 42 points across their unbeaten sequence. Even allowing for the significant step up associated with facing New Zealand at Eden Park, this isn't a Wallabies attack that needs to rely solely on penalties to stay within the number.

New Zealand are also missing Savea and Mo'unga, among others, while Scott Barrett is returning after playing barely an hour of rugby this year.

We're still giving New Zealand the edge at home, but Australia's current trajectory makes +13.5 appealing.

2. Under 58.5 Total Match Points @ $1.90

This might appear counterintuitive given Australia's recent scoring numbers, but the game state should be very different at Eden Park.

The Wallabies know an uncontrolled shootout plays directly into New Zealand's strengths. Australia should be looking to limit transition opportunities, kick with greater purpose and force the All Blacks to build their scores through sustained phases rather than gifting Jordan, McKenzie and Beauden Barrett broken-field opportunities.

There is also uncertainty surrounding New Zealand's attack. Mo'unga has been ruled out at short notice, McKenzie is making his first start at flyhalf this season and Tupaea has only just returned from injury.

A total of 58.5 gives us room for something in the region of a 31-23 New Zealand victory and still cashes the under.

3. All Blacks 1-12 @ $2.90

This is the market that best fits our overall match prediction.

There are two competing trends here. New Zealand's Eden Park record is too substantial to dismiss, but Australia's current form makes a blowout less attractive than it would have been in recent Bledisloe campaigns.

The Wallabies haven't lost since July and arrive after beating the reigning world champions. Fourteen members of the starting XV from that victory retain their positions, providing the sort of continuity Australia need for a difficult away Test.

New Zealand should still have enough. Their starting backline contains Roigard, McKenzie, Jordie Barrett, Jordan and Beauden Barrett, while the return of Scott Barrett strengthens the pack. But injuries to Savea and Mo'unga remove two hugely influential pieces.

We're expecting the Wallabies to remain competitive deep into the second half before New Zealand's experience and Eden Park advantage ultimately prove decisive.

Verdict

All Blacks v Wallabies - Bledisloe Cup Game 1

Our best bets for Bledisloe Cup Game 1 can be found below.

Australia +13.5

Line

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Under 58.5

Total Points

$1.90 - 2 Units

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New Zealand 1-12

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