2026 Shanghai Masters

Matteo Arnaldi vs Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Tomic playing first Masters main draw since 2019

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 07 Oct 2026 23:53

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Matteo Arnaldi vs Bernard Tomic predictions for Thursday's ATP Shanghai R1
Tomic 4-22 in last 26 matches vs top 40 opponents
Arnaldi in average form, but Tomic can't be trusted in these situations
The match is scheduled to start around 5.00pm AEDT on Thursday October 8

Matteo Arnaldi v Bernard Tomic Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Shanghai. T&Cs apply. Watch and bet Starts in To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Note, under Australian law, Live Streaming is exempt from Parts 3 and 4 of the Broadcasting Services (Online Content Service Provider Rules) 2018.

Matteo Arnaldi vs Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Bernard Tomic has a shocking record against top 40 players over the last decade, so his return to Masters 1000 level isn't expected to be a triumphant one as he faces Matteo Arnaldi in the first round of Shanghai on Thursday.

Matteo Arnaldi vs Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Arnaldi vs Tomic Stats & Trends
Arnaldi vs Tomic Head To Head
Matteo Arnaldi Form Analysis
Bernard Tomic Form Analysis
Arnaldi vs Tomic Live Stream

You've actually got to give a lot of credit to Tomic - he's been grinding away on the Challenger circuit for years and now he's qualified for his first Masters 1000 tournament since 2019.

Tomic was a Shanghai quarter-finalist back in 2015, but obviously his best tennis is behind him. He did beat Karen Khachanov a couple of months ago in Los Cabos, but followed it up by losing 6-1 6-0 to Cameron Norrie.

Unfortunately, the latter result is more likely for this contest.

Arnaldi hasn't been great since his Roland Garros semi-final run, but he is a dogged competitor that will make you hit tons of balls to beat him. That's a bad matchup for Tomic.

Tomic has lost 22 of his last 26 matches against top 40 players dating back to 2016 and 18 of those have been in straight sets. Arnaldi at $2.10 to prevail 2-0 looks pretty good value to me.

Arnaldi vs Tomic Stats & Trends

Tomic is playing his first Masters main draw since 2019
Tomic has lost 17 of his last 24 Masters matches (including qualifying)
Tomic has a 4-22 record vs top 40 players over the last 10 years
Eighteen of those 22 defeats for Tomic have come in straight sets
Tomic's last match vs a top 40 player was a 1-6 0-6 loss to Cam Norrie
Arnaldi has a 3-0 record in Shanghai first round matches

Arnaldi vs Tomic Head To Head

This will be the first meeting between the pair.

Matteo Arnaldi Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 10-14
ATP Shanghai Record: 4-3
Current Ranking: No. 38
Career-High Ranking: No. 30 (2024)

After battling a chronic foot injury that threatened to derail his career, Arnaldi enjoyed a breakthrough at Roland Garros earlier this year, advancing to his first Grand Slam semi-final.

Unfortunately, Arnaldi was forced to withdraw with illness and he hasn't been able to recapture that level of tennis since.

The Italian struggled through the grass swing and North American hardcourt summer, arriving at the start of the Asian swing having lost four of his last five matches - including a first round US Open exit to James Duckworth.

However, Arnaldi rebuilt some confidence in Tokyo last week, beating home hope Rei Sakamoto in a tough three-setter before pushing eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz, leading 6-2 in the first set tiebreak before ultimately going down 7-6(6) 6-1.

Bernard Tomic Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 2-1
ATP Shanghai Record: 5-6
Current Ranking: No. 185
Career-High Ranking: No. 17 (2016)

It's been a wild career for Tomic - he made a Wimbledon quarter-final from qualifying as a teenager back in 2011, but he's been ranked outside the top 100 since 2019.

Tomic's been seemingly content to just hang around Challenger level, where there's less pressure and he can somewhat enjoy his tennis with mates.

The 33-year-old still clearly has the talent with his unorthodox game to trouble elite players - he demolished Karen Khachanov in Los Cabos a couple of months ago before the Russian went on to make the US Open semi-finals.

But motivation, focus and fitness still hold Tomic back and he's capable of imploding and tanking in any given match - he won just one game following that Khachanov scalp in a 1-6 0-6 defeat to Norrie.

So it will be interesting to see what version of Tomic shows up for his first Masters 1000 main draw match in seven years - he made it through qualifying with wins over Terence Atmane and Timofey Skatov.

Arnaldi vs Tomic Live Stream

Watch and bet on Matteo Arnaldi vs Bernard Tomic live tennis from Shanghai.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Shanghai with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Matteo Arnaldi v Bernard Tomic

Tough to have any faith in Tomic being competitive against a top 40 player - Arnaldi to win in straights is the best bet here.

Arnaldi 2-0

Set Betting

$2.10 - 2 Units

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