2026 Shanghai Masters

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medvedev loves this matchup

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu. 15 Oct. 2026 23:46

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul predictions for Friday's ATP Shanghai QF
Medvedev has the matchup advantage, winning all three hardcourt meetings
Medvedev has covered a -2.5 line in all 10 wins this Asian swing
The match is scheduled to start at 9.00pm AEDT on Friday October 16

Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Shanghai. T&Cs apply. Watch and bet Starts in To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Note, under Australian law, Live Streaming is exempt from Parts 3 and 4 of the Broadcasting Services (Online Content Service Provider Rules) 2018.

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Daniil Medvedev has dominated Tommy Paul in all three of their previous hardcourt meetings and is tipped for another swift victory as the 2019 Shanghai Masters champion aims to return to the semi-finals on Friday night.

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Medvedev vs Paul Stats & Trends
Medvedev vs Paul Head To Head
Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis
Tommy Paul Form Analysis
Medvedev vs Paul Live Stream

Medvedev is arguably the favourite to claim a second Shanghai Masters after Carlos Alcaraz was stunned by Zizou Bergs earlier in the tournament. Paul also benefitted from that result, taking out Bergs in the previous round to make the quarter-finals in Shanghai for the first time.

But the American's run probably ends here.

It's a great matchup for Medvedev - he can handle all of Paul's athleticism and shotmaking, redirecting with ease and using his backhand to dictate proceedings from the baseline.

Paul just can't find a way to finish points against Medvedev when the Russian is in form - he's lost sets 0-6 1-6 & 2-6 (twice) in their three hardcourt meetings, illustrating just how tough he finds this matchup.

With Medvedev focused and in the zone, the World No. 6 is tipped for another relatively routine victory here, covering the -2.5 line.

Medvedev vs Paul Stats & Trends

Medvedev has a 33-9 record on outdoor hardcourts this year
Medvedev has a 7-1 record in quarter-finals this year
Medvedev has covered a -2.5 line in all 10 of his wins this Asian swing
Medvedev has won all three hardcourt meetings vs Paul
Paul has a 16-32 career record vs top 10 players

Medvedev vs Paul Head To Head

Medvedev leads 4-1, dropping just four games in their most-recent clash in Indian Wells last year.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2025	Daniil Medvedev	ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells	Round of 16	Outdoor Hard	6-4, 6-0
2024	Tommy Paul	ATP Masters 1000 Rome	Round of 16	Outdoor Clay	6-1, 6-4
2024	Daniil Medvedev	ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells	Semifinal	Outdoor Hard	1-6, 7-6(3), 6-2
2023	Daniil Medvedev	Beijing	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	6-2, 6-1
2021	Daniil Medvedev	Roland Garros	Round of 64	Outdoor Clay	3-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3

Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 44-17
ATP Shanghai Record: 17-5
Current Ranking: No. 6
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

Medvedev has worked his way back into the top 10 this season, with his form on outdoor hardcourts playing a major role in that resurgence. The 30-year-old has won 33 of his 42 matches on the surface in 2026 and has been particularly impressive during the Asian swing.

Medvedev has gone 10-0 in completed matches across the swing, highlighted by his title run in Hangzhou. He produced a brilliant performance to defeat Andrey Rublev in the final before carrying that momentum into Beijing, where his run came to an unusual end when he was defaulted against Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals.

There has been no hangover from that disappointment in Shanghai. Medvedev recovered from a set down to overcome Jan-Lennard Struff before making much lighter work of Dalibor Svrcina, cruising to a 6-2, 6-3 victory to book his place in the R16. Medvedev then produced another thunderous performance to register his 11th win over rival Stefanos Tsitsipas, pummelling the Greek's one-handed backhand and not facing a break point in the 6-4 7-5 victory. The Russian committed just 10 unforced errors in an extremely clean display.

Shanghai has traditionally been one of Medvedev's strongest stops on the calendar. He's won 17 of his previous 22 matches at the tournament, lifting the trophy in 2019 and reaching the semi-finals last year.

Tommy Paul Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 42-18
ATP Shanghai Record: 7-2
Current Ranking: No. 18
Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (2025)

Paul has bounced back strongly in 2026 after niggling injuries prevented him from building any sustained momentum last season. The American is now just one victory away from eclipsing his career-best tally of 42 wins in a single year.

Outdoor hardcourts have once again been a productive surface for Paul, winning 23 of his 34 matches this season. He's also featured in four ATP finals across three different surfaces, capturing the Houston title while finishing runner-up in Delray Beach, Hamburg and Queen's Club.

His North American summer was another solid stretch, with Paul making the Cincinnati Masters quarter-finals before reaching the R16 at the US Open, where Carlos Alcaraz brought his campaign to an end.

That made his opening performance of the Asian swing all the more surprising. Paul managed just three games in a disastrous first-round defeat to Alejandro Tabilo in Tokyo, but he's responded emphatically since arriving in Shanghai.

After dismantling Vallejo 6-2, 6-2 in his opener, Paul produced another commanding display to eliminate defending champion Valentin Vacherot. His athleticism and shotmaking were on full display in a 6-4, 6-2 triumph, bringing Vacherot's unbeaten run in Shanghai to an end and continuing Paul's impressive response to that Tokyo setback.

Paul continued his fine form in the R16, taking out Zizou Bergs 7-6(5) 6-4 and saving eight of the nine break points he faced.

Medvedev vs Paul Live Stream

Watch and bet on Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul live tennis from Shanghai.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Shanghai with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul

Medvedev has dominated Paul for the most part in this matchup and is tipped to cover a -2.5 line in victory for the 11th time this Asian swing.

Medvedev -2.5

Games Line

$1.75 - 3 Units

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