Samoa vs France Rugby League World Cup 2026 Tips - Points To Flow In Sydney

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed. 14 Oct. 2026 11:59

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Expert tips over 59.5 total points in Samoa’s World Cup opener versus France.
Stephen Crichton is recommended as an anytime tryscorer; Brian To'o to score first.
Samoa historically dominate France and bring a full-strength squad to the match.

Samoa vs France Rugby League World Cup 2026 Tips

Samoa vs France, Rugby League World Cup 2026 Round 1 - Expert Prediction

Take the Game Total over 59.5 in Samoa's World Cup opener against France, with Stephen Crichton as the anytime tryscorer and Brian To'o to score first.

Samoa vs France, Rugby League World Cup 2026 Round 1 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Samoa Form Analysis
France Form Analysis
Samoa v France Team News & Team Lists

Samoa won 62-4 the last time these nations met at a World Cup, and on Friday night the question is how many points go on the board, not who wins. With Samoa at -50.5 and the total at 59.5, the market is pricing a final score of roughly 54-4. The over can land in several ways, Samoa can score 60 on their own, or win 54-6 with France grabbing a single converted try.

Samoa have the attack to get there. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Brian To'o, Deine Mariner, Izack Tago and Stephen Crichton make up the backline, with Jarome Luai and Chanel Harris-Tavita in the halves. Crichton returns to centre after his stint at five-eighth for Canterbury and lines up opposite Latrell Siegwalt, a 25-year-old making his Test debut after eight NRL games.

France will score too. They have scored in all five meetings with Samoa, and captain Benjamin Garcia says they will "try something different" rather than just "go through our sets". That approach will leave space for Samoa, but it should also produce a French try or two late in the game.

The pool format gives Samoa a reason to keep the foot down. Only the top two from the combined six-team Pool B and C go through to the semi-finals, and Samoa still have to face Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and Tonga.

Take the Game Total over 59.5. Stephen Crichton is the anytime tryscorer play and Brian To'o is the first tryscorer pick.

Samoa beat France 62-4 at the last World Cup, a Game Total of 66.
France have scored in all five meetings with Samoa.
Stephen Crichton returns to centre and runs at Test debutant Latrell Siegwalt.
Brian To'o scored the opening try of the 2025 Pacific Championships final in the 11th minute.

Head to Head Stats

Samoa lead the head-to-head 4-1 and have outscored France 188-58 across five Tests. France's only win was a 28-6 victory in 2006. Samoa have won the last three, 42-10 in 2008, 22-6 in 2013 and 62-4 at the 2022 World Cup in Warrington.

Only that 2022 win would have covered a 50.5-point line, but 2 of the 5 meetings cleared 59.5, with 66 points scored in both 1995 and 2022. France have managed at least 4 points in every meeting.

Year	Result	Competition	Venue
2022	Samoa 62-4	World Cup	ENG
2013	Samoa 22-6	World Cup	FRA
2008	Samoa 42-10	World Cup	AUS
2006	France 28-6	Federation Shield	FRA
1995	Western Samoa 56-10	World Cup	WAL

Samoa Form Analysis

Samoa came close to winning their first international title in 2025. They opened the Pacific Championships with a narrow loss to New Zealand in Auckland, then beat Tonga 34-6 to reach the final at CommBank Stadium, the same ground they play on Friday night.

The final summed up both their quality and their problem. Samoa led the Kiwis 14-6 at halftime after a Brian To'o try in the corner and an 80-metre intercept from Simi Sasagi, but they conceded 30 unanswered points in the second half and lost 36-14. Junior Paulo was immense in the middle with 12 runs for 96 metres.

This squad is close to full strength. Paulo and Luai are co-captains, and Paulo, Luai, To'o, Crichton and Spencer Leniu all played in the 2022 World Cup final. Leniu arrives off a dominant grand final performance for the Roosters. Newcastle edge forwards Jermaine McEwen and Francis Manuleleua make their Test debuts a week after losing the NRL decider by a point. Paulo has also said Samoa will be a "safe haven" for Luai after a hard 2026 season at the Wests Tigers.

France Form Analysis

France come in with wins over smaller rugby league nations but have not played a tier-one opponent in a while. They beat Morocco 34-10 in February 2025 and qualified for this tournament by beating Jamaica 36-0 in the Northern Hemisphere playoff in October 2025. A proposed warm-up Test against Australia was called off.

The spine has some quality. Arthur Mourgue won the Super League title with Hull KR, five-eighth Cesar Rouge scored 20 points against Wales in the 2024 qualifier in Perpignan, and Benjamin Garcia captains the side at his fourth World Cup. The main new face is Latrell Siegwalt. The Wagga Wagga product debuted for South Sydney in Round 10, finished with 2 tries, 6 try assists and 28 goals from 39 attempts in eight games, and won the Rabbitohs' Rookie of the Year award. He qualifies for France through his paternal grandfather.

The concern for France is the gap in size and speed in the middle. Garcia called Samoa "big, strong and fast", and France's forward pack will need to hold up against Paulo, Leniu and Francis Molo for 80 minutes. That is where the points against usually start to pile up late in these games.

Samoa v France Team News & Team Lists

Samoa	No.	France
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	1	Arthur Mourgue
Brian To'o	2	Benjamin Laguerre
Izack Tago	3	Latrell Siegwalt
Stephen Crichton	4	Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet
Deine Mariner	5	Leo Darrelatour
Chanel Harris-Tavita	6	Cesar Rouge
Jarome Luai	7	Theo Fages
Francis Molo	8	Romain Navarrete
Benaiah Ioelu	9	Benjamin Garcia
Junior Paulo	10	Lambert Belmas
Connelly Lemuelu	11	Arthur Romano
Jermaine McEwen	12	Mathieu Jussaume
Francis Manuleleua	13	Julian Bousquet
Jazz Tevaga	14	Amir Bourouh
Spencer Leniu	15	Tiaki Chan
Shawn Blore	16	Jordan Dezaria
Sualauvi Fa'alogo	17	Mathieu Cozza
Ata Mariota	18	Thomas Lacans
Clayton Faulalo	19	Louis Grossemy
Ronald Volkman	20	Jowasa Drodrolagi
Pasami Saulo	21	Romeo Tropis
Enari Tuala	22	Fouad Yaha