Asahi Super Dry Handicap Tips (Race 2)
Rosehill Roughie - Race 2 No. 3 My Welcomestranger
While it has been a quiet start to October for Tim Clark, he arrived off a strong winter and six winners in September, while over the past 12 months he has struck at 20% when combining with the Michael Freedman stable.
The pair combine with My Welcomestranger, a three-quarter brother to Group 2 winner Snitty Kitty, who showed enough on debut at Newcastle on September 19 despite drifting noticeably late in betting.
The three-year-old lacked the sharp turn of foot required over 1250m but picked up again late and was strong through the line, suggesting the rise to 1400m at start two should suit.
That performance mirrored his September 11 Randwick trial, where he came under riding before building nicely late over 1050m, having completed two trials leading into this campaign after also being given time following a pair of heats back in April.
Barrier one gives Clark every chance to secure an economical run, while his main threats could be vulnerable, with Italian Spirit coming off a three-length first-up defeat and Sapphire Legend perhaps the one to beat after a very encouraging debut, although she has a wide draw to overcome.
Racing And Sports Handicap Tips (Race 5)
Rosehill Next Best Bet - Race 5 No. 3 Grafton Street
The partnership between Rachel King and Bjorn Baker continues to go from strength to strength, with the pair striking at almost 29% this season from 11 winners and their most recent major highlight coming through Warwoven’s Group 1 Caulfield Guineas victory last Saturday.
King was also aboard Grafton Street for his Australian breakthrough at Warwick Farm on September 23, where the son of Wootton Bassett relished the rise in distance and fought hard to edge out Pierro Lad.
That was only a narrow victory, but there was plenty of merit in getting the better of a rival who had been in very consistent form, including a winning hat-trick over winter, while the performance suggested Grafton Street should appreciate another rise in distance to 2400m.
The lightly raced five-year-old has not put in a bad run in Australia, finishing third-of-seven on his local debut at Hawkesbury before chasing home Mister Rizz over 1800m at the same track on September 5, with that form reading well after Mister Rizz was competitive in a BM88 won by Pinhole, who then took out the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield last Saturday.
This does not look overly strong and, although Grafton Street rises in weight, he possesses as much upside as anything in the field and looks well placed to complete a double with King retaining the ride.
Farnan @ Vinery Stud Handicap Tips (Race 7)
Rosehill Best Bet - Race 7 No. 6 Metallic Cat
The Waterhouse and Bott stable is finding form at the right time of year, striking at 21% in October, with four of its past five winners scoring second-up and the other saluting third-up, which points to further improvement from Metallic Cat after an excellent return.
Superbly bred and from the same family as five-time Group 1 winner Triscay, while also being a half-sister to Listed winner Cuba, the lightly raced mare has hardly put a hoof wrong through four starts, recording two wins and two seconds.
She improved sharply from her debut second in March to win her next two appearances, both all-the-way victories on rain-affected ground, before returning over this track and trip on September 30.
Metallic Cat drifted late in betting, crossed from barrier 13 to lead and was only nailed in the final strides by a much fitter West Of Dalby, who carried 3kg less and enjoyed a much softer passage in transit.
She now drops 2kg to 57kg, draws much kinder in barrier four and retains Adam Hyeronimus, who is striking at better than 22% for the Waterhouse and Bott stable this season with six winners, while natural second-up improvement should see Metallic Cat again roll forward and prove very hard to run down.
TAB Handicap Tips (Race 8)
Rosehill Value Bet - Race 8 No. 2 Azarax
Zac Lloyd has been in excellent form through winter and early spring since returning from a short overseas stint, with October producing nine winners at a strike rate of 28% from 32 rides, along with 13 placings.
He has also been a regular rider for the John O’Shea and Tom Charlton stable, striking at 25% for the yard over the past 12 months and at better than 33% this season with 10 winners, making his booking aboard Azarax particularly interesting.
The gelding returned over this track and trip on September 30 and looked beaten at a key stage before picking up again late to finish third behind Concrete Storm, a pass-mark return after arriving off two trials, including a narrow defeat behind subsequent Group 3 Bill Ritchie Handicap winner General Salute.
Azarax showed promise early, highlighted by a late two-year-old win over subsequent Group 1 winner Panova, before opening his previous preparation with a fresh victory on February 19 and then placing in the Canberra Guineas, and while that campaign subsequently tailed off, a slow recovery was noted following his Randwick-Kensington failure before he tackled a strong Listed race during The Championships.
He may ultimately prove even better over further, but from barrier five he has enough tactical speed to settle within the first few pairs under Lloyd, and with that first-up run behind him, Azarax can figure on an each-way basis.