NBL27 Tips

Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Tips - NBL27 Round 5

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed. 14 Oct. 2026 10:17

Ryan Tucker 3 hours ago

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South East Melbourne Phoenix are backed to cover the -7.5 line against a weakened Brisbane Bullets.
Brisbane's offense could struggle without Arnas Velicka, who accounts for nearly half their assists.
Recommended picks: South East Melbourne -7.5, Brisbane under 90.5 team points, Nathan Sobey 3+ three-pointers.

Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix

Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL27 Expert Tips

South East Melbourne Phoenix are tipped to cover the -7.5 line against the Brisbane Bullets on Thursday night, with the hosts facing a major challenge following the loss of their primary playmaker, Arnas Velicka.

Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL27 Expert Tips
Key Stats
Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Head to Head
Brisbane Bullets Form
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form

Velicka has averaged 10.2 assists and 13.8 points through five games, accounting for nearly half of Brisbane's assists this season. Without him, a Bullets offence already ranked seventh in scoring at 91.8 points per game could struggle to create quality opportunities against the Phoenix.

Brisbane under 90.5 team points is our second selection. The Bullets have lost three straight and now face a South East Melbourne side that has won four consecutive meetings between the teams.

Nathan Sobey 3+ three-pointers completes the selections. Sobey has found his range after a difficult start, making nine of his last 21 attempts from deep after opening the season 0-of-12 across his first two games. With Brisbane missing their main distributor, the Phoenix guard should have opportunities to punish a Bullets defence allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from three.

Back South East Melbourne -7.5, Brisbane under 90.5 team points and Nathan Sobey 3+ three-pointers.

Key Stats

South East Melbourne have won their past four games against Brisbane.
Brisbane have lost three straight and 16 of their past 18 games.
Arnas Velicka has averaged 10.2 assists per game, accounting for approximately 48% of Brisbane's assists.
Nathan Sobey has made nine three-pointers from 21 attempts across his past two games.

Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Head to Head

South East Melbourne lead the all-time series 13-10 and have dominated recent meetings, winning four consecutive games against Brisbane. The Phoenix won all three matchups last season, including a 103-76 victory at Brisbane Entertainment Centre in November.

The visitors have scored at least 103 points in each of those four victories, highlighting the problems Brisbane have had containing their offence.

Brisbane Bullets Form

Brisbane have slipped to 2-3 following three consecutive defeats, most recently losing 97-91 to Cairns on the road.

Tyrell Harrison was outstanding against the Taipans with 23 points and 18 rebounds, but the Bullets were outscored 22-12 in bench points and couldn't find enough offensive support.

Brisbane lead the NBL with 49.0 rebounds per game, but their offensive consistency remains a concern. The absence of Velicka, who has produced 51 assists across five appearances, leaves a significant hole in their ball movement and scoring creation.

The Bullets return home with a 2-1 record at Brisbane Entertainment Centre, although their latest home game ended in a 109-99 overtime defeat to Tasmania.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form

South East Melbourne are 2-4 after suffering a narrow 104-99 defeat against Melbourne United last Saturday.

The Phoenix started strongly, leading 30-17 after the opening quarter, but were unable to maintain that advantage as United fought back. Nathan Sobey led South East Melbourne with 24 points, while Melbourne's Josh Oduro produced 21 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks.

Despite their disappointing record, the Phoenix have remained competitive offensively, averaging 92.0 points per game. Their defence has also been more reliable than Brisbane's, conceding 92.2 points compared with the Bullets' 95.8.

South East Melbourne will be looking to end their losing streak against a Brisbane side missing a crucial piece of its offensive structure.