England vs Tonga Rugby League World Cup Tips & Prediction - England to extend winning streak over Tonga
England, considered underdogs, face Tonga in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup opener at HBF Park, Perth. Despite Tonga's star-studded lineup, their recent poor international form and lack of cohesion contrast starkly with England’s disciplined defense and consistent performance. England have won all seven previous meetings, including a 3-0 series win in 2023, while Tonga have lost eight of their last nine internationals. The article tips England for an upset, expecting a low-scoring match (under 37.5 points) and highlights Herbie Farnworth and Robert Toia as likely tryscorers.
- England vs Tonga predictions for Saturday's Rugby League World Cup game
- England hold value as underdogs; have won last seven meetings vs Tonga
- Plenty of strike-power in the outside backs; Farnworth & Toia tipped for tries
- The game is scheduled for kick off at 8.00pm AEDT on Saturday October 17
England vs Tonga Rugby League World Cup Tips & Prediction
England are good value as underdogs to make it seven straight wins over Tonga when the two nations square off in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup on Saturday night at HBF Park in Perth.
This should be another brilliant clash to help launch the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, but I think England are being criminally underpriced here - in fact, I'd have them as favourites.
I think the bookies are getting carried away with the names in the Tonga team and look fair enough - any side with the likes of Isaiya Katoa, Robert Toia, Haumole Olakau’atu and Addin Fonua-Blake is enough to make any opposition tremble.
But while there's lots of individual quality in this Tongan side, can they work together as a team? Recent history suggests no - they've lost eight of their last nine internationals. All sizzle and no steak.
Meanwhile, you know what you're going to get from England - a hard, workmanlike performance and world class defence. They can frustrate this Tongan side and Katoa struggled to create when suffocated by the Roosters in the recent preliminary finals.
I'm taking England for the upset in a game that sees Under 37.5 total points. Herbie Farnworth is coming off a thunderous NRL season in which he established himself as a top three centre in the game and can score a four-pointer, along with Tonga centre Robert Toia, who had a prolific end to the campaign.
England vs Tonga Stats & Trends
- England have won 14 of their last 18 internationals
- Tonga have lost eight of their last nine internationals
- England have seen Under 37.5 points in two of their last three internationals
- Tonga have seen Under 37.5 points in four of their last seven internationals
- The last four meetings have seen Under 37.5 points
- Herbie Farnworth has scored six tries in nine internationals for England - he also scored 15 tries in 25 games for the Dolphins this season
- Robert Toia scored a try in five of his last six games of the NRL season
England vs Tonga Head To Head
England have dominated this matchup, winning all seven previous meetings between the nations - including a 3-0 sweep of a three-game Test series in 2023.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | England | 26-4 | AMT Headingley |
| 2023 | England | 14-4 | John Smith's |
| 2023 | England | 22-18 | Totally Wicked |
| 2017 | England | 20-18 | Mt Smart |
| 2006 | England | 32-14 | Halton |
| 2006 | England | 40-18 | The Stoop |
England Form Analysis
England are yet to win a World Cup as a single nation, but they did prevail three times as Great Britain in 1954, 1960 and 1972.
The Three Lions finished runner-up to Australia in 2017, while they suffered a heartbreaking semi-final elimination at home in 2022, going down 27-26 to Samoa after throttling them 60-6 in the group stage.
Brian McDermott's side were last in action during the 2025 Ashes Series against Australia, losing the series 3-0, failing to score more than eight points in all three defeats.
Tonga Form Analysis
For all of the talent and firepower in this Tongan side, they are yet to put it all together - at least consistently - on the international stage.
Tonga's best performance at a World Cup came in 2017, when they beat New Zealand in the group stage before falling 20-18 to England in the semi-finals.
Mate Ma'a Tonga lost another two-point heartbreaker against Samoa in the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals before suffering a 0-3 series blitz against England the following year.
Some poor performances in recent Pacific Championships matches means Tonga arrive at this World Cup having lost eight of their last nine matches.
England vs Tonga Team News
George Williams and Harry Smith are the halves for England, with Gold Coast Titans fullback AJ Brimson starting at fullback.
Plenty of strike in the backline, with Dom Young and Hugo Savala recently playing in the NRL Grand Final, while Farnworth played a starring role in the Dolphins reaching a first preliminary final.
Victor Radley is coming off a premiership triumph for the Roosters and starts at lock.
Meanwhile, there's a ridiculous amount of speed in a Tongan backline that features Lehi Hopoate, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Tolutau Koula, Robert Toia and Jojo Fifita, while Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo and Haumole Olakau’atu spearhead a fearsome forward pack, with the likes of Stefano Utoikamanu and Leka Halasima coming off the bench.
| England | Position | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Brimson | 1 – Fullback | Lehi Hopoate |
| Dominic Young | 2 – Winger | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak |
| Hugo Savala | 3 – Centre | Tolutau Koula |
| Herbie Farnworth | 4 – Centre | Robert Toia |
| Zach Eckersley | 5 – Winger | Jojo Fifita |
| George Williams (c) | 6 – Five-Eighth | Latu Fainu |
| Harry Smith | 7 – Halfback | Isaiya Katoa |
| Max King | 8 – Prop | Addin Fonua-Blake |
| Brad O'Neill | 9 – Hooker | Soni Luke |
| Morgan Knowles | 10 – Prop | Jason Taumalolo (c) |
| Junior Nsemba | 11 – 2nd Row | Haumole Olakau'atu |
| Kai Pearce-Paul | 12 – 2nd Row | Siua Wong |
| Victor Radley | 13 – Lock | Tyson Frizell |
| Jez Litten | 14 – Interchange | Salesi Foketi |
| Luke Thompson | 15 – Interchange | Stefano Utoikamanu |
| Ethan Havard | 16 – Interchange | Demitric Vaimauga |
| Sam Walters | 17 – Interchange | Leka Halasima |
| Jack Welsby | 18 – Reserve | Tuimoala Lolohea |
| Matty Ashton | 19 – Reserve | Paul Alamoti |
| Ben Currie | 20 – Reserve | Taniela Paseka |
| Mikey Lewis | 21 – Reserve | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki |
| Ben Talty | 22 – Reserve | Sione Katoa |
Verdict
England are backed as underdogs in a match that features Under 37.5 total points. Herbie & Toia are the anytime tryscorer picks.
England Win
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