Bathurst 1000 2026 Preview & Predictions - Payne Backed to Go Back-to-Back
The 2026 Bathurst 1000 promises fierce competition, with Matt Payne and Will Davison emerging as top picks for victory. Payne, the defending champion, teams up with the experienced Davison, and their #19 Ford has shown impressive form. Meanwhile, Brodie Kostecki is strongly backed to make history by clinching a fourth consecutive pole position, underscoring his dominance at Mount Panorama. Although the field is stacked with strong contenders, the analysis recommends backing Payne/Davison for the win, with Kostecki set to shine in qualifying.
- Matt Payne/Will Davison picked to win Bathurst 1000 2026.
- Brodie Kostecki tipped for a record fourth consecutive pole.
- The race remains highly competitive with 10+ contender pairings.
Bathurst 1000 2026 Preview and Predictions (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
Bathurst 1000 2026 Preview & Predictions
Matt Payne and Will Davison are backed to win the 2026 Bathurst 1000, while Brodie Kostecki can make history by claiming a fourth consecutive pole position at Mount Panorama.
- Bathurst 1000 2026 Preview & Predictions
- Bathurst 1000 2026 Key Stats
- Bathurst 1000 Pole Position Prediction
- Bathurst 1000 Race Prediction
Trying to pick a Bathurst winner is rarely straightforward, but 2026 might be particularly difficult. Ford has won 23 of the opening 29 races, Chevrolet showed signs of improvement at The Bend and Toyota suddenly enters the Great Race as a genuine threat after dominating the AirTouch 500.
There are probably 10 or more combinations capable of winning if everything falls their way.
Payne and Davison are the pair to back.
Payne returns as the defending Bathurst champion after winning alongside Garth Tander in 2025, and the #19 Ford showed more at The Bend than its eventual result suggested. They were spun at the opening corner but recovered to fifth before the first round of stops, only for further problems to derail their race.
Kostecki, meanwhile, is the pick for Saturday's Top Ten Shootout. Three consecutive Bathurst poles already puts him in elite company, and a fourth would give him the outright record for consecutive Great Race poles.
Bathurst 1000 2026 Key Stats
- Ford has won 23 of 29 races heading into Bathurst.
- Matt Payne is the defending Bathurst 1000 champion.
- Brodie Kostecki has claimed three consecutive Bathurst pole positions.
- Cam Waters has started from the first two rows at the last seven Bathurst 1000s.
- 13 drivers in the field have made at least 10 Bathurst starts without winning.
- Toyota arrives after taking a dominant victory at the AirTouch 500 at The Bend.
Bathurst 1000 Pole Position Prediction
Brodie Kostecki is backed to take pole position.
Cam Waters deserves enormous respect given his record in the Top Ten Shootout, but it is difficult to overlook what Kostecki has done at Mount Panorama.
He has taken pole for three consecutive Bathurst 1000s and now has the chance to become the first driver to make it four in a row.
Perhaps most impressive is that Kostecki hasn't necessarily built his Bathurst weekends around qualifying. He explained that last year he didn't complete a single low-fuel run before qualifying and still took provisional pole before converting it in the Shootout.
When the track is empty and everything comes down to one lap, Kostecki continues to find another level around the Mountain.
Pole Position Prediction: Brodie Kostecki
Bathurst 1000 Race Prediction
Matt Payne and Will Davison are the selections to win the 2026 Bathurst 1000.
Payne already knows how to finish the job at Mount Panorama after last year's victory, and he has been one of the most consistent front-running drivers throughout 2026.
The #19 Ford also had serious pace at The Bend that wasn't reflected by the final result. After being spun at Turn 1, Payne and Davison charged back to fifth before the first stops before further dramas ended their challenge.
Davison brings enormous Bathurst experience, while Payne has increasingly shown the combination of speed and mistake-free racing required to survive 1000 kilometres around the Mountain.
Bathurst remains incredibly difficult to predict. Broc Feeney/Nick Percat, Cam Waters/Mark Winterbottom, Will Brown/Scott Pye and Ryan Wood/Jaxon Evans are all genuine threats.
But if the #19 stays out of trouble, Payne has the speed to become a back-to-back Bathurst winner.
Race Winner Prediction: Matt Payne/Will Davison
Verdict
Brodie Kostecki is backed to claim a historic fourth consecutive Bathurst pole, while Matt Payne and Will Davison are the selections to win the Great Race.
Kostecki / Hazelwood
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Payne / Davison
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