Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon faces in-form qualifier in Roland Garros opener

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 25 May 2026 01:06

Andrew Hendrie 25 May 2026

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Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel predictions for Monday's French Open R1 match
De Minaur is 2-2 vs top 100 players in 2026 and 8-9 overall at Roland Garros
Samuel rising quickly up the rankings, set for first slam main draw & match vs top 100 player
The match is scheduled to start at 7.00pm AEST on Monday May 25

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Alex de Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alex De Minaur launches his Roland Garros campaign on Monday when he comes up against British qualifier Toby Samuel in the opening round.

Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Samuel Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Samuel Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Toby Samuel Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Samuel Live Stream

De Minaur has made the French Open quarter-finals before, but overall, he has a negative 8-9 record at the tournament, with eight of his nine previous appearances seeing him crash out in the first or second round. The Aussie hasn't had the greatest clay swing, but did generate some momentum with a semi-final run in Hamburg last week.

Meanwhile, Samuel has come through the increasingly-popular college route and swiftly cemented himself on the tour, coming into this clash having won 21 of his last 25 matches at all levels. The 23-year-old is up to No. 159 in the world and has qualified for a Grand Slam main draw for the first time in his career at Roland Garros, earning three very impressive victories. This will now be the first time Samuel faces a top 100 player in his career - let alone a top 10 opponent.

It's not a bad opportunity for Samuel. De Minaur has been vulnerable over the last couple of months and is 2-2 vs players outside the top 100 this season. He's also got a poor record in Paris and had treatment on his leg in Hamburg. Pulling off the upset is probably out of the question, but Samuel has nothing to lose and can push this Over 31.5 total games.

De Minaur vs Samuel Stats & Trends

De Minaur is 17-3 vs players outside the top 100 at Grand Slams
De Minaur is 2-2 vs players outside the top 100 this season
De Minaur has lost in R1 or R2 in eight of his nine previous Roland Garros appearances
Samuel has won 21 of his last 25 matches at all levels
Samuel has never faced a top 100 player before or played a Grand Slam main draw
Samuel has gone to a deciding set in seven of his last nine matches at all levels

De Minaur vs Samuel Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 18-10
French Open Record: 8-9
Current Ranking: No. 7
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)

It hasn't been a great season for De Minaur, but he comes into this tournament just one spot off his career-high ranking of No. 6.

De Minaur had a great start to the year, making the Australian Open quarter-finals and winning the ATP 500 Rotterdam title, but he's registered a 7-7 record since mid-February.

The Aussie has gone 6-5 during the clay swing, with his best results including a quarter-final run in Monte Carlo before advancing to the semi-finals of Hamburg last week, beating Fran Cerundolo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Luciano Darderi before going down to Tommy Paul after leading by a set and break.

De Minaur has bombed out in the first or second round in eight of his nine previous visits to Roland Garros, with his best result a quarter-final run in 2024. The 27-year-old was eliminated in R2 last year by Alexander Bublik after wasting a two-set lead.

Toby Samuel Form Analysis

2026 Record: 0-0
French Open Record: 0-0
Current Ranking: No. 159
Career-High Ranking: No. 159 (May 2026)

Samuel has quickly climbed into the world's top 200 this year and if he maintains this current level, a debut in the top 100 by the end of the season isn't out of the question - especially with his local grass swing coming up.

But first, Samuel is still focusing on clay after a terrific French Open qualifying campaign that saw him register three very good wins over the likes of Martin Damm, David Goffin and Gonzalo Bueno.

The 23-year-old has now won 21 of his last 25 matches at all levels and is set to feature in his maiden Grand Slam main draw in Paris.

After going 62-17 at all levels last year after graduating college, Samuel has put together a 27-8 record in 2026, securing three lower-level titles.