2026 French Open

Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Cobolli with physical edge in all-Italian semi-final

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026 01:50

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi predictions for Friday's French Open semi-final
First ever all-Italian Grand Slam semi-final
Cobolli fresh & coming off top 10 win over FAA - favoured to prevail
The match is scheduled to start around 3.00am AEST on Saturday June 6

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Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Either Flavio Cobolli or Matteo Arnaldi will secure a spot in the French Open final when they collide on Friday in Paris.

Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Cobolli vs Arnaldi Stats & Trends
Cobolli vs Arnaldi Head To Head
Flavio Cobolli Form Analysis
Matteo Arnaldi Form Analysis
Cobolli vs Arnaldi Live Stream

What a journey it's been for these two - Cobolli and Arnaldi were squaring off in Under 10s National Championships in Italy and are now meeting on the biggest stage of them all in the first ever all-Italian Grand Slam semi-final.

Cobolli is certainly the fresher of the pair - he's dropped just two sets on his way to the semi-finals, taking advantage of a favourable draw before landing his first top 10 win at a slam over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals.

Meanwhile, Arnaldi has been shattering records for time spent on court this tournament, slugging it out for close to 18 hours before benefitting from Matteo Berrettini's retirement after one set in the last eight. After battling a chronic foot injury, Arnaldi has now reached just his fourth tour-level semi-final and is back around the top 30 in the live rankings.

Under normal circumstances, I think this would be a tight encounter. But in this particular situation, Cobolli holds the physical edge, while he's also been operating at a higher level for a more sustained period of time. Asking Arnaldi to win a first ever tour-level semi-final in a slam is a tall order. He might be able to keep one set close, but I think this is where his run ends - Cobolli to cover, with Under 38.5 games and value in a straight sets triumph.

Cobolli vs Arnaldi Stats & Trends

Cobolli has won 13 of his last 17 matches
Arnaldi has won 12 of his last 13 matches at all levels
Arnaldi has lost eight of his last nine matches vs top 20 players
Arnaldi is 0-3 in tour-level semi-finals
Cobolli has won five of his last six semi-final matches
Four of Cobolli's last six wins have come in straight sets

Cobolli vs Arnaldi Head To Head

Currently 1-1 at tour-level, with Cobolli winning in four sets at Roland Garros last year.

Year	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025	Roland Garros	Round of 64	Clay	Flavio Cobolli	6-3, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-1
2023	Umag	Round of 16	Clay	Matteo Arnaldi	6-3, 7-6(5)

Flavio Cobolli Form Analysis

2026 Record: 23-12
French Open Record: 8-3
Current Ranking: No. 14
Career-High Ranking: No. 12 (May 2026)

Cobolli is always a bit of rocks or diamonds and it's been more of the latter lately, which has seen him break into the top 10 in the live rankings for the first time.

After securing the ATP 500 Acapulco title earlier in the year, Cobolli comes into this clash having won 13 of his last 17 matches - including a runner-up showing in Munich, where he beat Alexander Zverev along the way. Could the pair be on a collision course for the French Open final?

The flashy Italian has taken advantage of a relatively soft draw in Paris, at least in the early rounds. Cobolli eased past Andrea Pellegrino, Yibing Wu and a fatigued Learner Tien in straight sets before holding on for a four-set victory over Zachary Svajda.

Cobolli produced some thunderous tennis to conquer fourth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals for his first top 10 scalp at a major. He recovered from dropping the opening set for a 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 triumph.

Matteo Arnaldi Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-6
French Open Record: 10-3
Current Ranking: No. 104
Career-High Ranking: No. 30 (2024)

If anybody deserved a moment like this, it's Arnaldi.

The 25-year-old has been struggling with a chronic foot issue for over a year, before finally finding a solution. It took a while for the Italian to find his way back on tour, dropping out of the top 100, but he's well and truly back.

Arnaldi has won 12 of his last 13 matches at all levels, taking the top 10 scalp of Alex de Minaur in Rome before taking his game to another level in Paris.

It's been marathons aplenty for Arnaldi - he spent a record 17 hours and 42 minutes on court to reach the quarter-finals, edging out Raphael Collignon and Frances Tiafoe in back-to-back five-set epics.

Arnaldi then copped a lucky break, with Matteo Berrettini retiring with a hip problem after one set of their last eight showdown, giving him a chance to recover before the semis.