Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to secure year-end No. 1 ranking

The equation for Alcaraz is simple - defeat Musetti and he will go 3-0 during the ATP Finals group stage for the first time and more importantly, wrap up the year-end No. 1 ranking from Jannik Sinner. The Spaniard has never fully flourished indoors at the season-ending championships, but after relatively close victories over Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur, he now stands on the cusp of reaching the semi-finals for just the second time - although, such is the nature of these groups, he could still be eliminated if he loses this in straight sets and depending on the result of Fritz vs de Minaur earlier on Thursday.

However, that's very unlikely to happen. Alcaraz has won 14 of his last 15 encounters with top 10 players, with the only defeat in that period coming against Sinner. He's also won his last seven meetings with Musetti, who emptied the tank in a miraculous comeback victory over de Minaur to keep his own slim semi-final hopes alive. However, the Italian is clearly fatigued after his efforts in Athens last week and this one could be over quickly as a result. If Alcaraz is in a ruthless mood - which he should be given what's at stake - then I expect the World No. 1 to register a dominant victory here.

As mentioned, Alcaraz has dominated Musetti throughout the course of their careers. The Italian actually won the very first meeting, but Alcaraz has won seven on the trot since - including three during this year's clay swing in Monte Carlo, Rome and Roland Garros.

Musetti produced an epic fightback from 3-5 down in the deciding set, blasting winners off both wings and stunning de Minaur by winning the final four games of the match to take it 7-5 3-6 7-5.