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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Round 24 Tips & Prediction - Can Warriors avoid 'Panthers Hangover'?

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026 01:21

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors predictions for Saturday's NRL R24 game
Warriors coming off draining win over Panthers
Teams struggle to back up after playing Penrith - Broncos 13+ angle comes into play at value
The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.35pm AEST on Saturday August 15

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Round 24 Tips & Prediction

Small stakes only, but I'm keen to have a punt on the Broncos here - the 'Panthers Hangover' is real and the Warriors spent so much physical and emotional energy in that famous win last week. Brisbane showcased they can still turn it on in attack against the Dolphins and hold some value as they play for pride at Suncorp on Saturday night.

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Round 24 Tips & Prediction
Broncos vs Warriors Stats & Trends
Broncos vs Warriors Head To Head
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
Broncos vs Warriors Team News

Only six teams this year have won the following week after playing the Panthers. The level of effort, exertion, execution and the subsequent physical and mental drain it takes to match it with Penrith is enormous - and more often than not, teams pay the price in the next round.

Penrith Round	Team that played Penrith	Following Round	Next-week result	W/L
1	Brisbane Broncos	2	Brisbane 32–40 Parramatta	❌
2	Cronulla Sharks	3	Cronulla 10–38 Dolphins	❌
3	Sydney Roosters	4	Manly 16–33 Roosters	✅
4	Parramatta Eels	5	Parramatta 20–22 Wests Tigers	❌
5	Melbourne Storm	6	Melbourne 14–38 Warriors	❌
6	Canterbury Bulldogs	7	Parramatta 38–20 Canterbury	❌
7	Dolphins	8	Warriors 20–18 Dolphins	❌
8	Newcastle Knights	9	Newcastle 42–38 South Sydney	✅
9	Manly Sea Eagles	10	Manly 32–4 Brisbane	✅
10	Canberra Raiders	11	BYE	—
11	St George Illawarra	12	Dragons 12–30 Warriors	❌
13	New Zealand Warriors	14	BYE	—
14	Wests Tigers	15	Wests Tigers 36–28 Gold Coast	✅
16	Gold Coast Titans	17	Gold Coast 12–30 Canterbury	❌
17	North Queensland Cowboys	18	BYE	—
18	South Sydney Rabbitohs	19	South Sydney 26–24 Newcastle	✅
20	Brisbane Broncos	21	North Queensland 18–10 Brisbane	❌
21	Parramatta Eels	22	Wests Tigers 13–16 Parramatta	✅
22	Canberra Raiders	23	Canberra 24–30 Newcastle	❌
23	New Zealand Warriors	24	Brisbane v Warriors — not yet played	⏳

Discounting the byes, that's a 6-10 record for a 37.5% win rate.

The Warriors were incredible last week. From the opening haka, you could tell we were about to witness something special. The Wahs absolutely ripped Penrith to shreds, bashing them from pillar to post, sending their home fans in Auckland into euphoric celebrations throughout the 28-12 masterclass. Luke Metcalf enjoyed a triumphant return in the halves, Wayne Egan ran the show from dummy half and Leka the Wrecker was at his bulldozing best, along with with bookend prop James Fisher-Harris. It was arguably the most intimidating performance of the season.

But, can the Warriors back it up against the team coming second-last on the ladder eight days later on the road? I'm not so sure.

Brisbane have nothing to lose and that makes them dangerous. They blitzed the finals-bound Dolphins with four tries and 24 points in just 23 minutes last week before letting themselves down with poor defence. But with the likes of Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam, Kotoni Staggs, Billy Walters, Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan, this Broncos side have points in them, there's no doubt about that.

So if - and I'm aware it's a big if - the Broncos can tidy up their defence, there's potential for the upset here, if we go on the assumption that the Warriors could be fatigued, both physically and mentally, from the effort it took to produce that performance last week.

I'm going to play the Broncos with a +7.5 start as the main play and look, why not back the hosts 13+ at $7.50 - if they do win, there's a decent chance it's a blowout. Ezra Mam scored a hat-trick last week and was back to his electric best, while you can't go past DWZ as the Warriors' anytime tryscorer prop.

Broncos vs Warriors Stats & Trends

Only six teams have won the following week after playing the Panthers in 2026
Teams have a 6-10 record for a 37.5% win rate in the week after facing Penrith this season
Warriors have lost four of their last nine games
Broncos scored 24 points in the first 23 minutes vs Dolphins last week
Ezra Mam scored a hat-trick vs Dolphins last week
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak scored a double vs Broncos earlier this season, he also has 18 tries in 19 games this season

Broncos vs Warriors Head To Head

The Warriors have won three of the last four meetings between the teams, including a 42-12 demolition during Magic Round earlier this season.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2026	New Zealand Warriors	42–12	Suncorp Stadium
2025	Brisbane Broncos	26–12	Suncorp Stadium
2025	New Zealand Warriors	20–18	Go Media Stadium
2024	New Zealand Warriors	32–16	Go Media Stadium
2023	Brisbane Broncos	42–12	Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

It's obviously been a nightmare season for the Broncos and amazingly, they aren't out of wooden spoon contention just yet - but it would require a miracle late surge from the Dragons to condemn them to bottom spot.

Regardless, the Broncos have only managed six wins in their premiership defence with an absolutely star-studded roster - it's embarrassing and inexcusable, no matter how you spin it.

But, to Brisbane's credit, they've never really thrown in the towel. Of their last eight defeats, six have come via a 1-12 margin. Michael Maguire's side have also beaten Penrith in that period (losing to the Cowboys the following week).

The Broncos exploded out of the blocks last week and blitzed the Dolphins with four quick tries to take a 24-0 lead after 23 minutes, with Ezra Mam scoring a first-half hat-trick. However, Brisbane's defence was all over the place, they ultimately lost the second half 16-2 and the game 40-32.

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis

The Warriors stood up and announced their genuine premiership credentials with arguably the most impressive performance of the season last week to beat Penrith 28-12.

It was a statement display, with Luke Metcalf returning in the halves to score a double and control the game impeccably.

Andrew Webster's side are now just two points off the Panthers and Roosters at the top of the ladder as they chase down a possible minor premiership and home final.

The Wahs had been going through a rough patch of four defeats from seven games, but have returned to top form with a 42-6 demolition of the Titans followed by the aforementioned upset of Penrith.

Broncos vs Warriors Team News

Tom Duffy remains halfback for Brisbane, with Adam Reynolds still out with concussion. Aublix Tawha has been named on the bench, with Gehamat Shibasaki dropping out.

Te Maire Martin is sidelined with injury, with Luke Metcalf retaining his spot in the halves. Demitric Vaimauga returns on the bench in place of Morgan Gannon.

Broncos	Pos.	Warriors
Reece Walsh	1	Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
Josiah Karapani	2	Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
Kotoni Staggs	3	Ali Leiataua
Deine Mariner	4	Leka Halasima
Grant Anderson	5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira
Ezra Mam	6	Chanel Harris-Tavita
Thomas Duffy	7	Luke Metcalf
Xavier Willison	8	James Fisher-Harris
Billy Walters	9	Wayde Egan
Payne Haas	10	Mitchell Barnett
Jaiyden Hunt	11	Kurt Capewell
Jordan Riki	12	Jacob Laban
Patrick Carrigan	13	Erin Clark
Ben Hunt	14	Sam Healey
Aublix Tawha	15	Tanner Stowers-Smith
Jack Gosiewski	16	Demitric Vaimauga
Va'a Semu	17	Eddie Ieremia-Toeava
Blake Mozer	18	Taine Tuaupiki
Ben Talty	19/20	Adam Pompey

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v New Zealand Warriors

There's merit in backing the Broncos for the upset. Mam & DWZ are the tryscorer props.

Broncos +7.5

Line

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