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North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL Round 23 Tips - Cats to continue dominance over Kangaroos
Geelong are heavily favoured to secure victory over North Melbourne in AFL 2026 Round 23, as they fight to stay in top-four contention. The Cats boast a dominant 16-game winning streak over the Kangaroos, with an average margin of 49 points. Key players such as Oliver Henry and Bailey Smith are tipped to shine, while North Melbourne's record against top sides remains poor. Recent form supports Geelong's superiority, and the expert tip is for the Cats to cover the -23.5 line and keep finals hopes alive.
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 15th August, with the bounce at 3:45 PM (AEST)
- Can the Cats continue dominance over North Melbourne?
- North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL Round 23 Tips, preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
North Melbourne vs Geelong, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
- North Melbourne vs Geelong, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- North Melbourne Form Analysis
- Geelong Form Analysis
- North Melbourne vs Geelong Team List & News
- North Melbourne Team News
- Geelong Team News
- North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ’s
Geelong will keep their top four hopes alive and prove too good for North Melbourne on Saturday afternoon.
The Cats sit just one win behind fourth to sixth on the ladder and can elevate themselves outside of the wildcard zone with one match in the home-and-away season to come, while a North Melbourne loss will end any mathematical hopes they have of finishing in the top 10.
It would be nice to think the Kangaroos have finally turned the corner, but their win over the Western Bulldogs should be treated with some caution after the Dogs produced a sloppy performance. The bigger question mark is North Melbourne’s record against the better sides, with the Kangaroos 0-7 against top-seven opposition this season. They have been more competitive recently, losing to Melbourne and Hawthorn by 16 points, but Geelong represent another significant step up and the Cats should be able to cover the -23.5 line.
Geelong have plenty of avenues to goal and Oliver Henry shapes as one of the better player props. Henry has kicked 11 goals across his past three matches and has looked increasingly dangerous inside 50, making 3+ goals appealing against a North Melbourne defence that will be under pressure for long periods.
Bailey Smith is another to consider in the player markets for 30+ disposals. Smith is averaging 32 disposals across his past six matches and continues to play a central role through the Geelong midfield, while his recent record against North Melbourne includes a 43-disposal performance.
- Geelong have won the past 16 between the two sides by an average of 49 points.
- North Melbourne are 0-7 against top-seven sides in 2026, losing those matches by an average of 47 points.
- Oliver Henry has kicked 11 goals in his past three matches.
- Bailey Smith is averaging 32 disposals in his past six matches.
Head to Head Stats
Geelong have won the past 16 matches between the two sides by an average margin of 49 points. They were 49-point winners in the Round 8 match at GMHBA Stadium earlier this year. In the most recent meeting at Marvel Stadium, they did the job by 101 points. The Cats have averaged 131 points per game in their past seven against the Kangaroos.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Bailey Smith (Cats)- 43 disposals and 26 disposals in his two matches playing for Geelong against North Melbourne
- Shannon Neale (Cats)- 11 goals in four career matches against the Roos.
- Jack Darling (Roos)- three goals in the most recent head to head.
- Shaun Mannagh (Cats)- four goals in the most recent head to head.
North Melbourne Form Analysis
North Melbourne snapped a five-match losing streak with their 23-point win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend. They had been competitive in a number of those five losses and were not without their chances before finally putting it all together last weekend by responding when challenged.
Paul Curtis was instrumental with four goals and Luke Davies-Uniacke produced 31 disposals and two goals, while a host of others found plenty of the footy, including Luke Parker (26 disposals and a goal) and Colby McKercher (30 disposals).
The Kangaroos have made some improvements defensively and, after regularly conceding 100+ totals mid-season, they have given up an average of 79.5 points per game in their past eight. The total points in their past five matches at Marvel Stadium have averaged a tick over 160.
Geelong Form Analysis
Geelong have won their past four matches and come off a 67-point win over Essendon at GMHBA Stadium last weekend. The Cats are knocking on the door of the top six with a 13-8 win-loss record, just one game behind fourth to sixth-placed Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Against Essendon, Oliver Dempsey and Oliver Henry both kicked four goals, while Bailey Smith racked up another 38 disposals. Smith has had 28+ in his past six at an average of 32 per game. Henry has kicked 11 goals in his past three matches, while Shannon Neale has kicked 10 in his past three.
Away from GMHBA Stadium in 2026, Geelong have a 5-7 win-loss record. They are yet to play at Marvel Stadium in 2026 and have lost three of their past four at the venue but were 101-point winners over the Roos in the most recent of those.
North Melbourne vs Geelong Team List & News
North Melbourne Team News
The Kangaroos are unchanged for their clash with Geelong, sticking with the same side from Round 22.
Geelong Team News
Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Edwards return for the Cats. Sam De Koning misses through injury, while Jack Martin has been managed.
| North Melbourne | POS | Geelong |
|---|---|---|
| A. Corr, C. Comben, L. Parker | B | T. Stewart, C. O'Sullivan, L. Humphries |
| R. Hardeman, C. Daniel, C. McKercher | HB | Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, T. Bruhn |
| F. O'Sullivan, L. Davies-Uniacke, D. Stephens | C | O. Dempsey, B. Smith, M. Blicavs |
| C. Spargo, C. Trembath, J. Simpkin | HF | G. Miers, O. Henry, B. Close |
| C. Zurhaar, N. Larkey, P. Curtis | F | P. Dangerfield, S. Neale, J. Polkinghorne |
| T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, H. Sheezel | FOLL | M. Edwards, T. Atkins, O. Mullin |
| W. Dawson, G. Logue, J. Darling, T. Blamires, Z. Banch | I/C | J. Clark, M. O'Connor, J. Worpel, O. Wiltshire, S. Mannagh |
North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ’s
- How to watch North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2026 Round 23?
You can watch the North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2026 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2026 Round 23?
To buy tickets to the North Melbourne vs Geelong AFL 2026 Round 23 game check the AFL website or the official North Melbourne site.
Verdict
Geelong too good with Henry amongst the goals again, Smith to pick up 30+
Geelong -22.5
Line
$1.88 - 1 Unit
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Oliver Henry 3+
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Bailey Smith 30+
Player Disposals
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