Port Adelaide vs Melbourne AFL Round 23 Tips - Demons to continue top-four charge
Melbourne are set to continue their push for a top-four finish with a predicted comfortable win over Port Adelaide in Round 23, 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The Demons boast strong recent form and attacking firepower, averaging 109 points per game over their last six matches. Port Adelaide are struggling, particularly against top-six sides, conceding big scores recently. Harrison Petty's goal-scoring streak makes him a player to watch. The match is forecasted to be high-scoring, with the Demons expected to cover the line and total points tipped to go over.
- The game will be played at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, 15th August, with the bounce at 8:10 PM (AEST)
- Can the Power avoid another heavy defeat?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
Melbourne will continue their charge to the top four with a comfortable win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in Round 23.
The Demons are locked on 14 wins with Adelaide and Brisbane and sit just behind that pair on percentage, making this another crucial match in the battle for the double chance.
Port Adelaide are limping towards the finish line and their recent record against the better sides points towards Melbourne covering the line. The Power have lost their past three matches against top-six opposition by an average of 65 points and have conceded an average of 132 points across those games. Melbourne, meanwhile, are averaging 109 points across their past six matches and should get enough opportunities to put together another big score.
That combination also makes the over appealing despite Port Adelaide's lower-scoring recent matches at Adelaide Oval. The total points in the Power's past three matches against top-six opposition have averaged more than 200, while Melbourne have scored 100+ in each of their past two matches and are playing a more attacking brand of football heading towards September.
Harrison Petty is one to consider for 3+ goals after reaching that mark in each of his past three matches. His impact ahead of the ball has become an important part of Melbourne's setup, with his ability to provide a strong marking target and create contests giving him another favourable opportunity against a Port Adelaide defence that has struggled to contain the better sides.
- Port Adelaide have lost their past three matches to top-six sides by an average margin of 65 points.
- The Demons have a 14-7 win-loss record, while the Power are 6-15.
- The Power have conceded an average of 132 points in their past three matches against top-six sides, with the total points in those matches averaging over 200.
- Harrison Petty has kicked 3+ goals in each of his past three matches.
Head to Head Stats
Melbourne have taken out the past two matches between the two sides and were 25-point winners in the most recent head to head, with that coming at Adelaide Oval in Round 14 last season. They have won two of the past three against the Power at the venue.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Jason Horne-Francis (Power)- 28+ disposals in his past two matches against the Demons.
- Jack Steele (Dees)- the former St Kilda player has had 25+ against Port in five of his past six matches.
- Mitch Georgiades (Power)- seven goals in his most recent meeting against Melbourne.
Port Adelaide Form Analysis
Port Adelaide have a 6-15 win-loss record and come off their worst defeat of the season, a 97-point hiding at the hands of Sydney. Their defence has held up for much of the season, but the floodgates opened against the Swans, conceding 167 points to 70.
The absence of Zak Butters has hurt in the middle. Jase Burgoyne chalked up 34 disposals against the Swans, while Willem Drew registered 34. Jack Whitlock kicked three goals, while Jason Horne-Francis and Corey Durdin each kicked two.
Port Adelaide have an 8-4 win-loss record at Adelaide Oval this season. The total points in their past three at the venue have averaged just 160, but the Power have conceded an average of 132 points in their last three matches against top-six sides.
Melbourne Form Analysis
Melbourne have won five of their past six matches, with their only loss in that period coming against Geelong three weeks ago. They were four-point winners over the Dockers last weekend, compiling another 100+ score. They are averaging 109 points per game in their past six matches.
A slight question mark surrounding the Demons is their form away from the MCG, with their win-loss record reading 4-6 when not playing at the home of footy. They have lost both of their matches at Adelaide Oval this season, with those coming against Essendon by 45 points during Gather Round and against Adelaide in Round 15 by 17.
Melbourne lifted when the game was on the line last weekend, scoring five goals to three in the final term. Kozzy Pickett finished with 27 disposals and two goals, while Tom Sparrow chalked up 24 and two. Sparrow has had 24+ in his past six matches, while Jake Bowey has reached that mark in his past five.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Team List & News
- to be updated after team selection on Thursday
Port Adelaide Team News
Concerns remain over Jason Horne-Francis after the star midfielder hyperextended his knee during the final quarter against Sydney. Port Adelaide suggested that tests after the game revealed no structural damage, but the club are awaiting the results of a scan. Joe Richards is a chance to return, while Hugh Bamert was a late withdrawal through illness against the Swans and is expected to be available. Intrigue surrounds the availability of Zak Butters, who has been progressing in his recovery from injury. With the star midfielder strongly tipped to join a Victorian club in 2027, there will be added motivation for him to prove his fitness and feature in what could be his final home game for Port Adelaide.
Melbourne Team News
Melbourne reported no injuries from the win over Fremantle, giving Steven King a healthy group heading into the next round. There were no immediate indications of forced changes, although Kozzy Pickett could attract Match Review scrutiny for appearing to exaggerate high contact during the first quarter. With Max Gawn getting through the match and playing the entire final term in the ruck, the Demons should otherwise have strong availability following the four-point win.
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ’s
- How to watch Port Adelaide vs Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 23?
You can watch the Port Adelaide vs Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Port Adelaide vs Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 23?
To buy tickets to the Port Adelaide vs Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 23 game check the AFL website or the official Port Adelaide site.
Verdict
Demons to open game right up and cover the line. Total Points to go over. Harrison Petty to continue strong form in front of goal
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