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Jesse's AFL Round 23 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 11 Aug 2026 12:44

Jeremy Darke 2 hours ago

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Jesse predicts big wins for Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane in Round 23.
Hawthorn and Collingwood clash highlights a weekend of finals previews.
Top-four race remains fierce, with several clubs still in contention.

Jesse from True Footy's Just the Tips for Round 23.

Jesse's AFL Round 23 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Just two rounds remain in the AFL home-and-away season, and the race for the top four is going down to the wire.

Sydney can secure a top-two finish, Hawthorn has an opportunity to lock away a double chance, while Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide and Geelong remain in the fight behind them. Round 23 also delivers several potential finals previews, with Fremantle hosting Adelaide and Hawthorn meeting Collingwood in two of the biggest games of the weekend.

Jesse's AFL Round 23 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Fremantle vs Adelaide Prediction
Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction
North Melbourne vs Geelong Prediction
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Prediction
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prediction
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Prediction
GWS Giants vs West Coast Prediction
Carlton vs Western Bulldogs Prediction
Essendon vs Sydney Prediction

Here are Jesse's tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 23 game.

Fremantle vs Adelaide Prediction

This could easily be a preview of what awaits in September, particularly with Adelaide still fighting desperately for a top-four position.

Fremantle suffered a rare defeat against Melbourne at the MCG, but there was little in that performance to suggest the Dockers should suddenly be concerned. Adelaide's situation is more urgent after failing to build enough percentage against Richmond, and Jordan Dawson and Riley Thilthorpe will need to produce something special in Perth.

Fremantle beat Adelaide earlier this season and remains unbeaten at home, making the Dockers very difficult to oppose.

Jesse's Tip: Fremantle by 32 points

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Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction

St Kilda's wildcard hopes are hanging by a thread following the loss to Carlton, while the absence of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera makes the task even more difficult.

Richmond has been competitive in patches and should benefit from playing at the MCG, but the Saints have enjoyed this matchup in recent seasons. Even without Wanganeen-Milera, St Kilda should have enough quality to control the contest.

Jesse's Tip: St Kilda by 25 points

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North Melbourne vs Geelong Prediction

This could be one of the surprise games of Round 23.

North Melbourne has built a strong body of competitive performances against quality opposition and showed again last week that its improvement is genuine. Geelong still has plenty to play for in the top-four race, but the Kangaroos have already challenged the Cats once this season and Marvel Stadium should help close the gap.

Geelong should win, but Jesse expects North to push the Cats all the way.

Jesse's Tip: Geelong by 4 points

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Brisbane vs Gold Coast Prediction

Gold Coast finally snapped its enormous losing streak against GWS, with Matt Rowell producing one of his best performances of the season.

That doesn't make a trip to the Gabba any easier. Brisbane responded emphatically against Hawthorn and still has virtually no margin for error in the battle for a top-four finish. With the Lions needing both wins and percentage, this presents a major opportunity.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane Lions by 55 points

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Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prediction

Hawthorn can take a huge step towards securing a top-four finish, but Collingwood presents a fascinating challenge.

The Magpies have improved as the season has progressed and remain one of the AFL's strongest defensive sides, while Hawthorn struggled badly at the Gabba last week. Jai Newcombe and the Hawks should respond, however, and their recent record against Collingwood gives them another reason for confidence.

Expect a much stronger Hawthorn performance.

Jesse's Tip: Hawthorn by 19 points

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Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Prediction

Melbourne's huge win over Fremantle has kept its top-four hopes alive, making this a must-win trip to Adelaide.

Port Adelaide was comfortably beaten by Sydney and could again be without key midfielders, with questions surrounding Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis. Melbourne has been less reliable away from the MCG, but Max Gawn and the Demons are carrying significantly stronger form into this matchup.

Jesse is backing Melbourne to keep the pressure on the top four.

Jesse's Tip: Melbourne Demons by 15 Points

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GWS Giants vs West Coast Prediction

West Coast has already beaten GWS once this season, but repeating that result away from home looks considerably tougher.

The Giants have been wildly inconsistent all year and were upset by Gold Coast last week, while there is also doubt surrounding Harley Reid's availability for the Eagles. West Coast can make this competitive if it wins enough of the contest, but GWS should have too much attacking quality at ENGIE Stadium.

Jesse's Tip: GWS Giants by 20 points

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Carlton vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Carlton's remarkable mid-season revival has put a wildcard spot within touching distance.

The Blues backed up their demolition of Brisbane by beating St Kilda, while the Bulldogs are coming off a disappointing defeat to North Melbourne. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh are driving a Carlton side playing with genuine momentum, while the Dogs have struggled to rediscover the scoring power that once made them so dangerous.

Carlton won the first meeting under Josh Fraser and looks an even better side now.

Jesse's Tip: Carlton by 23 points

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Essendon vs Sydney Prediction

Sydney has the opportunity to officially secure a top-two finish, and Essendon looks unlikely to stand in the way.

The Swans produced another enormous score against Port Adelaide and remain one of the most potent attacking teams in the competition. Essendon continues to field an extremely young side and was comfortably beaten by Geelong last week, making this a huge challenge at the MCG.

Sydney should put this away comfortably.

Jesse's Tip: Sydney Swans by 64 points