Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL Round 23 Tips - Lions To Flex Muscles At Gabba
The Brisbane Lions, coming off a dominant 67-point win, face the Gold Coast Suns, who recently snapped a 10-game losing streak, in Round 23 at the Gabba. Brisbane, boasting a strong record over the Suns, are expected to win by 1-39 points, with betting value on Gold Coast exceeding 76.5 points and Matt Rowell continuing his form. Expert recommendations include betting on Rayner to kick 2+ goals. Despite Gold Coast’s underdog status, their recent boost in performance could keep the game competitive.
- Brisbane Lions favored to win by 1-39 points at the Gabba.
- Gold Coast Suns, boosted by Rowell’s form, set for team total over 76.5.
- Cam Rayner tipped for 2+ goals; expect a high-scoring contest.
- Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns kicks off Saturday 15 August at 4:15pm AEST at the Gabba.
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
Brisbane have won three straight against Gold Coast, including a 31-point win back in round 13 this year and a 53-point Semi-Final win last September, and they arrive at the Gabba in ominous form.
- Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Team List & News
- Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ's
A 67-point demolition of Hawthorn led by Kai Lohmann kicking 5 goals from 24 disposals, was exactly the response Brisbane Lions coach Chris Fagan wanted after a 154-point capitulation to Carlton the week before. Fourth on the ladder with no margin for error in the run to finals, expect the Lions to keep their foot down here.
Gold Coast's story is completely different but no less compelling. Their 2-point win over GWS ended a 10-game losing streak, and it was built almost entirely around a career-best performance from Matt Rowell who had 40 disposals, 17 clearances and 16 tackles. The Suns are out of finals contention and have nothing to lose at the Gabba, and with that pressure released after ending the drought, there's a genuine chance they play with more freedom than the ladder position suggests.
Still, this looks like Brisbane's game to control even though this fixture has produced genuine upsets before, so backing a moderate winning margin rather than chasing the biggest possible blowout price makes sense given how quickly this head-to-head can flip. With Rowell running hot and the total pointing well above the market number, there's value in the scoring markets too.
Take Brisbane to win by 1-39 points, Gold Coast for a team total over 76.5, Matt Rowell over 26.5 disposals, and Cam Rayner to kick 2+ goals as the plays for Saturday afternoon at the Gabba.
- Footy Bets predictive modelling sees this as a high-scoring affair, with the model's implied total running well above the market number which is a good sign for the Gold Coast team total to clear 76.5.
- Rowell's disposal count has been climbing sharply, going from a serviceable season average to a career-best 40 touches last week, and the model itself leans toward him clearing his prop line again this week.
- Cam Rayner kicked 3 goals against Gold Coast in round 20 last year and 2 goals the meeting before that.
- Gold Coast have nothing to lose and showed genuine spark ending their losing streak, which should keep them competitive enough to hit their team total even in defeat.
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane hold a commanding all-time record over Gold Coast, 23 wins to 8, and have been almost untouchable at the venue, winning 14 of 17 meetings at the Gabba. The most recent meeting went to Brisbane by 31 points in round 13 this year, though Gold Coast's 66-point upset win in round 20 last season is a reminder this fixture isn't always as one-sided as the overall numbers suggest.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane bounced back in emphatic fashion, beating Hawthorn 125 (18.17) to 58 (8.10), a 67-point win at the Gabba. Kai Lohmann (5 goals, 24 disposals), Will Ashcroft (39 disposals, 13 score involvements) and Lachie Neale (35 disposals) were dominant, with the win coming a week after a 154-point loss to Carlton. Brisbane sit fourth at 14-7 with a 117.8% percentage, fighting to hold their spot in the top four.
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Gold Coast snapped their 10-game losing streak, beating GWS 79 (11.13) to 77 (11.11) at Manuka Oval in wet, cold conditions. Matt Rowell was the story of the match with a career-best 40 disposals, 17 clearances and 16 tackles, while Touk Miller (3 goals) and Ben King (2 goals, now outright second in the Coleman Medal race) provided the scoreboard impact. Gold Coast sit 14th at 8-13, out of finals contention but capable of playing loose footy with nothing to lose.
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Team List & News
Brisbane Lions Team News: Brisbane are expected to be close to unchanged after their big win over Hawthorn, with Keidean Coleman cleared of concussion protocols but unlikely to be recalled, and Hugh McCluggage still one to two weeks away from a return.
Gold Coast Suns Team News: Sam Collins is a fitness question after being replaced in the selected side last week, with Oscar Adams the likely cover option, while coach Damien Hardwick could look to recall rested youngsters Jai Murray, Beau Addinsall and Dylan Patterson after the drought-breaking win.
(Full 22-man team lists to be added once officially confirmed by both clubs ahead of Saturday's game.)
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ's
- How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2026 Round 23?
You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2026 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2026 Round 23?
To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2026 Round 23 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.
Verdict
Take Brisbane to win by 1-39 points, Gold Coast for a team total over 76.5, Matt Rowell over 26.5 disposals, and Cam Rayner to kick 2+ goals as the plays for Saturday afternoon at the Gabba.
Brisbane 1-39
Winning Margin
$2.15 - 2 Units
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Gold Coast over 76.5
Team Total
$1.87 - 3 Units
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Matt Rowell over 26.5
Disposals
$1.85 - 1 Unit
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Cam Rayner 2+
Goals
$2.15 - 1 Unit
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