Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL Round 23 Tips - Swans to cruise past bottom-placed Bombers
Sydney Swans are strong favourites heading into their AFL Round 23 clash against bottom-placed Essendon, with a dominant win highly likely. The Swans have consistently thrashed lower-ranked sides, and Essendon have suffered heavy defeats to top teams recently. Key players like Charlie Curnow, Tom Papley, and Errol Gulden are in top form, with player prop bets attractive for punters. Expect Sydney to cover the 59.5-point line, with Essendon struggling across all areas of the ground.
- The game will be played at the MCG on Sunday, 16th August, with the bounce at 4:40 PM (AEST)
- Can the Bombers avoid another humiliating loss?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Essendon vs Sydney Swans, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Essendon vs Sydney Swans, Round 23 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Essendon Form Analysis
- Sydney Swans Form Analysis
- Essendon vs Sydney Swans Team List & News
- Essendon Team News
- Sydney Swans Team News
- Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ’s
Sydney look set for another demolition job when they take on bottom-placed Essendon at the MCG on Sunday, with the 59.5-point line looking well within reach.
The only slight concern is whether the Swans take their foot off the pedal with second spot effectively sewn up, but their record against the competition's strugglers suggests otherwise. Sydney have consistently put lower-ranked sides to the sword this season, while Essendon have lost their past four matches against top-six opposition by an average of 80 points. The Bombers' inability to prevent opposition sides from piling on goals in quick bursts remains a major concern against one of the competition's most damaging attacking teams.
The mismatch extends to Sydney's forward line, where Charlie Curnow has the opportunity to put some serious distance between himself and his Coleman Medal rivals. He has kicked 12 goals across the past three rounds and five last weekend, making 5+ goals worth backing against an Essendon defence that has struggled badly against quality opposition. Tom Papley's record against the Bombers is also difficult to ignore, with 14 goals from his past six meetings making 3+ another appealing option.
Essendon's problems containing opposition ball winners also point towards another big afternoon for Errol Gulden. He had 39 disposals last weekend and is averaging 38 across the past three rounds, while the Bombers have struggled to prevent quality midfielders from accumulating possession. Gulden 30+ disposals looks an excellent player prop to complement Sydney covering the 59.5-point line.
- Essendon have lost their past four against top-six sides by an average of 80 points.
- The Swans are averaging 138 points in their past three matches.
- Charlie Curnow kicked five goals last weekend, while Errol Gulden had 39 disposals.
- Tom Papley has kicked 14 goals in his past six matches against Essendon.
Head to Head Stats
Sydney took out the most recent meeting by 14 points in Round 21 last season at the SCG. They have won four of the past five between the two sides. Essendon and Sydney have not met at the MCG since Round 16 in 2022, when the Dons recorded a nine-point win.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Chad Warner (Swans)- 25+ disposals in his past six against the Bombers.
- Andy McGrath (Dons)- 25+ disposals in his past four against the Swans.
- Errol Gulden (Swans)- 30 disposals in the most recent head to head.
- Tom Papley (Swans)- 14 goals in his past six matches against Essendon.
Essendon Form Analysis
Essendon's difficult season has continued over the past three weeks against Hawthorn, Adelaide and Geelong. Last week, it was a 67-point loss at the hands of the Cats and they are anchored at the bottom of the ladder with a 2-19 win-loss record.
Perhaps the biggest concern heading into this match is Essendon's inability to slow opposition midfielders. The Bombers concede more disposals than any side in the competition, regularly allowing elite ball users to accumulate uncontested possession through the corridor.
They were beaten in this area by the Cats, despite the work of Zach Merrett (29 disposals) and Dyson Sharp (27). Archie Perkins was the Bombers' only multiple goalkicker with two majors in the 7.8 (50) scoreline. In their past six matches, the Dons are averaging just 53 points per game.
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Sydney come into Round 23 with a 16-5 win-loss record and are building strongly towards September. They thrashed Port Adelaide by 97 points last weekend, with Errol Gulden collecting 39 disposals and now averaging 38 across his past three matches.
The Swans have a 6-4 record away from home this season, although this will be just their second trip to the MCG, having lost to Hawthorn by 17 points at the venue in Round 2. They have been ruthless against the competition's bottom four, winning three of their four matches against those sides by 97 points or more.
Sydney have plenty of players hitting form, with Nick Blakey recording 28 disposals in each of his past two matches. Coleman Medal leader Charlie Curnow has kicked 12 goals across the past three rounds, while Logan McDonald has booted 10 in the same period, giving the Swans two in-form key targets heading into this match.
Essendon vs Sydney Swans Team List & News
- to be updated after team selection on Thursday
Essendon Team News
Essendon came through their 67-point loss to Geelong without any reported injuries, although young ruck Vigo Visentini required some attention late in the match, which was believed to be related to cramp. Visentini impressed with 17 disposals and 33 hit-outs in his first senior appearance of the season and is expected to retain his place against Sydney. Zach Merrett also remains fully committed to finishing the season strongly despite ongoing speculation surrounding his future, with the former captain producing 29 disposals and eight clearances against the Cats. Eiljah Tsatas was again busy at VFL level but cannot get a look in, while Jade Gresham starred at that level with 28 disposals and four goals, including the match winner.
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney reported no injuries from their 97-point win over Port Adelaide, with Errol Gulden returning to the field after passing a HIA and pulling up well after the match. Brodie Grundy is expected to return after missing last week following the birth of his first child, while Dane Rampe is also expected to be available. Justin McInerney has been training strongly and could return this week, while James Rowbottom's availability following hand surgery will be medically guided. Dean Cox indicated there are no firm plans to rest players and the Swans will continue to manage players individually as they build towards the finals.
Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 23 FAQ’s
- How to watch Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 23?
You can watch the Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 23 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 23?
To buy tickets to the Essendon vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 23 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon site.
Verdict
Swans big win with Curnow, Papley and Gulden best in player props
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