Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Osaka title bid gathering steam

Osaka has been building towards this moment for a while and it's all coming together for her in New York, with the former World No. 1 reaching her first major quarter-final since 2021. Crucially, Osaka has been to four previous Grand Slam quarter-finals and she's gone on to win the tournament on every occasion. She's basically been impossible to stop every time she's reached this stage of a major.

Muchova meanwhile has endured four absolute battles to return the US Open quarter-finals for the third straight year. The Czech has actually become the player with the most games dropped en route to the US Open quarter-finals in the Open Era, losing a total of 53 across her four matches. You've got to think that's taken a toll, especially with Muchova receiving a medical timeout in her R16 win over Marta Kostyuk. Osaka meanwhile has largely cruised into the last eight, demolishing Coco Gauff for the loss of just four games in her previous round. This feels like Osaka's time to shine again - backing the two-time US Open champion in straights.

Currently level at 2-2. Muchova was a 6-3 7-6 winner in the second round of last year's US Open, but Osaka returned serve with a 1-6 6-1 6-3 victory in the second round of the Australian Open to launch 2025. This will be their first ever meeting beyond the second round of a tournament.

It's been another injury-riddled season for Muchova, who comes into this encounter with a 20-12 record and at No. 13 in the world.

Muchova struggled at the slams before arriving in New York, going out in the second round of the Australian Open and suffering opening round exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

The Czech didn't show any spectacular form this summer either, going down in the R16 in Montreal and R32 in Cincinnati.

However, Muchova has continued her love affair with the US Open this tournament, advancing to the quarter-finals for the third straight year - and she's gone on to the semis in both previous appearances.

But how much fuel does Muchova have left in the tank? She's been pushed to a deciding set in all four of her victories against Venus Williams, Sorana Cirstea, Linda Noskova and Marta Kostyuk.

Osaka has registered a 31-12 record on the season and is playing her best tennis since returning to the tour from maternity leave a couple of years ago.

The four-time major champion warmed up for the US Open by reaching the final in Montreal, beating three top 20 players before falling to an inspired Victoria Mboko.

That run propelled Osaka into a Grand Slam seeding for the first time since her comeback and she's taken full advantage to make a run to major quarter-final for the first time since 2021 in New York.

Osaka has dropped just one set on her way to the last eight, needing three to overcome Daria Kasatkina in the third round. The Japanese star then produced a thunderous performance to dismantle former champion Coco Gauff 6-3 6-1 in the R16.