Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sabalenka to advance into US Open final

It's a rematch of the 2024 US Open final, which of course saw Sabalenka prevail to secure her third Grand Slam title. Both players have been supremely dominant as they strive to make it back to the title match in New York, advancing to the semi-finals without relinquishing a single set. Sabalenka benefitted from a Marketa Vondrousova withdrawal in the quarter-finals, while Pegula registered a routine 6-3 6-3 victory over Barbora Krejcikova.

I'm expecting another win for Sabalenka here. Incredibly, this is the first seeded player Pegula has faced at a Grand Slam all season and also the first top 50 player she's ran into. Obviously this is a huge step up in class now to face the World No. 1 and a player she's lost seven of the last eight meetings against. All seven of those wins for Sabalenka have come in straight sets. The Belarusian consistently overpowers and overwhelms Pegula from the baseline and the American simply doesn't have the firepower to hang with her. Sabalenka in straights is the best bet once more in this matchup.

Sabalenka leads 7-2, winning seven of the last eight meetings. Their last three encounters have all been high-profile finals on American hardcourts, with Sabalenka winning 6-3 7-5 in the 2024 Cincinnati final, 7-5 7-5 in the 2024 US Open final and 7-5 6-2 in the 2025 Miami final.

Sabalenka has put together a 54-10 record on the season, remaining the World No. 1 despite failing to add more Grand Slam silverware to her trophy cabinet.

While three titles in Brisbane, Miami and Brisbane were obviously great results, Sabalenka's focus is on the slams, so she'll be viewing this year as a huge disappointment at the moment.

Indeed, Sabalenka went down in the Australian Open final to Madison Keys and the Roland Garros final to Coco Gauff, while she was eliminated in the semi-finals of Wimbledon by Amanda Anisimova. Will she avoid another defeat against an American at a 2025 major in New York?

Sabalenka hasn't really been stretched so far this US Open, defeating Rebeka Masarova, Polina Kudermetova, Leylah Fernandez and Cristina Bucsa in straight sets.

A big test seemingly waited in the quarter-finals against Marketa Vondrousova, but the Czech was forced to withdraw with yet another injury.

Pegula has recorded a 42-16 record on the season, winning three WTA titles in Austin, Charleston and Bad Homburg and coming into this tournament at No. 4 in the world.

However, Pegula had performed poorly at the slams heading into the US Open. Indeed, she failed to make it past the R16 at any of the three previous majors, suffering a first round exit at Wimbledon immediately after winning the Bad Homberg title.

The American was really struggling over the last few months, failing to win back-to-back matches in nine of her last 11 tournaments.

Pegula has managed to find some good tennis for her home slam, where she made her big breakthrough last year by reaching the final.

The 31-year-old hasn't faced a seeded player, but has got the job done in beating Mayar Sherif, Anna Blinkova, Victoria Azarenka, Ann Li and Barbora Krejcikova in straights.