South Africa vs Australia 1st ODI Tips - Back Proteas On Home Soil
South Africa enters the 1st ODI against Australia as underdogs, but their stellar recent head-to-head record—including five consecutive series wins—makes them a strong pick. The Proteas have won seven of their last eight ODIs at Kingsmead. Despite a depleted bowling attack, players like Matthew Breetzke (backed for 30+ runs) and Marco Jansen (expected to take 2+ wickets) are recommended picks. Australia arrives in form, but the Kingsmead conditions and South Africa’s dominance at home tilt the odds toward the hosts in this series opener.
- South Africa have won the last five ODI series vs Australia, and 7 of last 8 at Kingsmead.
- Matthew Breetzke tipped for 30+ runs based on superb early ODI career.
- Marco Jansen expected to claim 2+ wickets amid depleted Proteas attack.
- The 1st ODI will be played at Kingsmead, Durban on Thursday, September 24, with the first ball at 6:00pm AEST.
South Africa vs Australia 1st ODI Tips (Photo by Noah SEELAM / AFP via Getty Images) /
South Africa vs Australia, 1st ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction
South Africa's outstanding recent record against Australia makes the hosts worth backing as underdogs in the opening ODI at Kingsmead.
- South Africa vs Australia, 1st ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- South Africa Form & Team News
- South Africa Squad
- Australia Form & Team News
- Australia Squad
The Proteas have won the last five ODI series between the countries, including the last three played in South Africa. They have also won seven of their last eight ODIs at Kingsmead, giving them a strong home record despite Australia arriving on a four-match winning streak.
Kingsmead should also keep the quicks interested. Pace has generally produced wickets at a lower average than spin across the South African venues being used in this series, which brings Marco Jansen into play despite the Proteas missing several frontline fast bowlers.
Matthew Breetzke 30+ runs is the batting selection. He averages 59.16 from 13 ODI innings and started his international 50-over career with scores of 150, 83, 57, 88 and 85. That included 88 against Australia last year.
Jansen 2+ wickets completes the card. South Africa are without Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Ottneil Baartman and Nandre Burger, leaving Jansen with greater responsibility as one of their main strike bowlers.
Take South Africa to win. Matthew Breetzke 30+ runs and Marco Jansen 2+ wickets are the player props.
- South Africa have won the last five ODI series against Australia.
- South Africa have won seven of their last eight ODIs at Kingsmead.
- Breetzke averages 59.16 from 13 ODI innings and scored 50+ in each of his first five innings.
- South Africa lead the overall ODI head-to-head 57-52, with three ties.
Head to Head
South Africa have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning the last five ODI series against Australia.
That includes victories in all three of their most recent home series, winning 5-0 in 2016, 3-0 in 2020 and 3-2 in 2023. South Africa also travelled to Australia last year and won that series 2-1.
South Africa Form & Team News
South Africa have won their last three ODIs after sweeping Namibia 3-0 with what was largely a second-string side. Their last two major ODI assignments in 2025 also produced 2-1 away series victories over Australia and England before series defeats against Pakistan and India.
The Proteas are well below full strength with the ball. Rabada, Ngidi and Baartman are sidelined with hamstring injuries, while Burger is unavailable with a back complaint. Aiden Markram will also miss the first ODI for personal reasons.
Gerald Coetzee returns to the ODI squad for the first time since the 2023 World Cup, while Jansen shapes as an important part of a depleted pace attack. The batting still has plenty of experience through Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock and David Miller, while Breetzke has emerged as one of South Africa's most productive ODI batters.
South Africa Squad
Temba Bavuma (c), Corbin Bosch, Matthew Breetzke, Gerald Coetzee, Quinton de Kock, Tony de Zorzi, Bjorn Fortuin, Duan Jansen, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Kwena Maphaka, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Nqobani Mokoena, Ryan Rickelton, Tristan Stubbs.
Australia Form & Team News
Australia arrive on a four-match ODI winning streak after completing a 3-0 sweep of Zimbabwe. They have scored at more than 5.4 runs per over in each of those four victories after failing to reach that mark in any of their previous six ODIs.
The Zimbabwe sweep also ended a run of three consecutive away ODI series defeats. Cooper Connolly strengthened his claim to the No.3 position with back-to-back half-centuries at first drop, while Josh Inglis, Matthew Renshaw and Ollie Peake also enjoyed productive series.
Australia are strengthened significantly by the returns of Cummins and Mitchell Starc. Billy Stanlake is unavailable after suffering a side injury in Zimbabwe, while Spencer Johnson has returned to Australia to be managed. Jack Edwards has been added as another pace-bowling option.
Australia Squad
Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Marsh, Xavier Bartlett, Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Joel Davies, Jack Edwards, Nathan Ellis, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Oliver Peake, Matthew Renshaw, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa.
Verdict
Take the Proteas as the underdogs. Breetzke 30+ runs is supported by his outstanding start to ODI cricket, while Jansen 2+ wickets fits the conditions and his increased role in a depleted Proteas attack.
South Africa
Money Line
$2.15 - 2 Units
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Matthew Breetzke
30+ Runs
$1.90 - 2 Units
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Marco Jansen
2+ Wickets
$1.83 - 2 Units
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