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Zimbabwe vs Australia, 1st ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026 07:58

Ryan Tucker 14 Sep 2026

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Zimbabwe favored to upset Australia in 1st ODI at Harare.
Connolly predicted to be Australia’s top scorer.
Australia’s unsettled lineup and recent poor form highlighted.

Australia's Cooper Connolly. (Photo by Munir UZ ZAMAN / AFP via Getty Images)

Zimbabwe vs Australia, 1st ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction

Zimbabwe are the pick to upset Australia in the opening ODI at Harare Sports Club.

Australia have the deeper squad, but two wins from six ODIs in 2026 leaves them vulnerable against a Zimbabwe side coming off a 2-1 series win over Bangladesh. The return of Mitchell Marsh, Travis Head and Josh Hazlewood strengthens Australia, although their batting order remains unsettled ahead of the 2027 ODI World Cup.

Zimbabwe vs Australia, 1st ODI 2026 - Expert Prediction
Zimbabwe vs Australia Head to Head
Zimbabwe Form Analysis
Australia Form Analysis
Team News

Zimbabwe have won two of three ODIs this year, all at Harare Sports Club, with Richard Ngarava and Blessing Muzarabani leading an attack capable of troubling Australia. Harare also suits the hosts. The average first-innings score across the last 28 ODIs is 240, while spin has conceded 4.81 runs per over compared with 5.23 for pace.

Zimbabwe also won the most recent ODI between these sides, beating Australia by three wickets in Townsville in 2022. Cooper Connolly is the Australian batting angle after smashing 149 off 134 balls against Bangladesh in his most recent ODI. With Australia's middle order unsettled, he is our pick to finish as their highest scoring batter.

Take Zimbabwe to win. Cooper Connolly to be Australia's highest scoring batter is the side bet.

Zimbabwe have won two of their three ODIs in 2026, with all three matches played at Harare Sports Club.
Australia have won only two of six ODIs in 2026 after losing consecutive series 2-1 against Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Zimbabwe won the most recent ODI between these teams, beating Australia by three wickets with 66 balls remaining in Townsville in 2022.
Teams batting first have won only 43% of the last 28 ODIs at Harare Sports Club, with an average first-innings score of 240.
Cooper Connolly scored 149 off 134 balls in Australia's most recent ODI, accounting for more than half of Australia's 277-run chase against Bangladesh.

Zimbabwe vs Australia Head to Head

Australia lead the recent ODI head-to-head 2-1, with all three meetings coming during Zimbabwe's 2022 tour of Australia.

Australia won the opening two matches by five wickets and eight wickets before Zimbabwe responded with a famous three-wicket victory in Townsville. This will be the first bilateral ODI series between the countries since that tour.

Zimbabwe Form Analysis

Zimbabwe enter the series after beating Bangladesh 2-1 in Harare in July, giving Richard Ngarava a winning start as ODI captain.

They lost the final match of that series after being dismissed for 199, with Bangladesh chasing the target in 36 overs for the loss of three wickets. The damage had already been done in the opening two games, however, with Zimbabwe securing the series before the finale.

Their bowling shapes as the biggest threat to Australia. Ngarava has taken 18 ODI wickets in 2026, while Muzarabani has 11. Muzarabani also took 4-17 against Australia at the 2026 T20 World Cup.

Brad Evans adds balance lower down the order after being named player of the series against Bangladesh. He scored two half-centuries and took five wickets across the three matches.

Australia Form Analysis

Australia have won only two of six ODIs in 2026, losing consecutive three-match series against Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Their Pakistan campaign ended with a four-wicket defeat in the deciding third ODI after Australia were dismissed for just 157. Josh Inglis fought almost alone with 65 before Pakistan reached 6-161 to complete a 2-1 series victory.

Australia then lost the opening two games against Bangladesh before salvaging the final ODI with a one-wicket victory.

That win belonged to Connolly. Opening the batting, the left-hander smashed 149 off 134 balls as Australia chased Bangladesh's 5-274, eventually reaching 9-277 with three balls remaining.

It was Connolly's maiden international century and the highest ODI score by an Australian in Asia since Glenn Maxwell's unbeaten 201 against Afghanistan at the 2023 World Cup.

Team News

Zimbabwe Team News: Zimbabwe have appointed Richard Ngarava as their new ODI captain following the 2-1 series win over Bangladesh. Their squad includes established names such as Blessing Muzarabani, Sikandar Raza, Craig Ervine, Brian Bennett, Ben Curran and Brad Evans.

Australia Team News: Mitchell Marsh captains Australia with Pat Cummins rested and Mitchell Starc not joining the squad until after the Zimbabwe series. Travis Head, Josh Hazlewood, Cameron Green, Alex Carey, Josh Inglis and Adam Zampa are included, while Connolly, Matthew Renshaw and Oliver Peake are among the players competing for long-term places ahead of the 2027 ODI World Cup.

Verdict

Zimbabwe v Australia 1st ODI

Take Zimbabwe to win. Cooper Connolly to be Australia's highest scoring batter is the side bet.

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