Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters 2026 NRL Preliminary Final Tips - Phins up and into the Grand Final

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed. 23 Sep. 2026 10:48

Jeremy Darke 23 Sep. 2026

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Dolphins have won 8 straight games and both 2026 meetings with the Roosters.
Experts tip Dolphins to cover -2.5 spread and score over 22.5 points.
Selwyn Cobbo is best try scorer pick; Jeremy Marshall-King is a value option.
Kick-off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) on Friday, 25th September at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.

Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters 2026 NRL Preliminary Final Tips

Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters, Preliminary Final 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Dolphins have won eight straight matches, eight straight at Suncorp Stadium and both meetings with the Roosters this season, making Redcliffe -2.5 the best bet in Friday night's preliminary final.

Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters, Preliminary Final 2026 - Expert Prediction
Key Stats & Trends
Head to Head
Dolphins Form Analysis
Sydney Roosters Form Analysis
Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters Team News & Team Lists
Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Preliminary Final FAQs

The Dolphins return to Suncorp one win away from their first NRL Grand Final after overcoming a 16-8 deficit to beat the Warriors 26-16. They have now won eight straight overall and eight straight at Suncorp, including a 48-10 demolition of the Roosters earlier this season.

Sydney snapped a four-game losing streak with a 46-10 win over Cronulla last weekend and receive a huge boost with Sam Walker returning just 24 days after syndesmosis surgery. His combination with Daly Cherry-Evans certainly makes the Roosters more dangerous, but they still need to overturn two convincing losses to the Dolphins this season.

Dolphins Over 22.5 points is the second selection. Redcliffe have averaged 31.6 points at Suncorp this season and have scored at least 23 points in 10 of their 12 matches at the venue. They won all 10 of those games.

There are options everywhere in the Dolphins backline for the tryscorer market, but Selwyn Cobbo has the best value considering his try scoring run and the fact he scored a double against the Chooks this season. Cobbo has scored in six consecutive matches with eight tries during that run and has crossed 16 times across his last 12 appearances.

Jeremy Marshall-King is the value alternative after scoring in both games against the Roosters this season.

Key Stats & Trends

The Dolphins have won eight consecutive matches.
Redcliffe have won eight straight at Suncorp Stadium.
The Dolphins beat the Roosters 48-10 and 26-12 in their two 2026 meetings.
The Dolphins have scored 23+ points in 10 of 12 games at Suncorp this season.
Selwyn Cobbo has scored eight tries across his last six matches.

Head to Head

The Dolphins have taken control of this matchup in 2026, winning both meetings with the Roosters by double figures.

Redcliffe smashed Sydney 48-10 at Suncorp Stadium in Round 15 before travelling to Allianz Stadium as underdogs in Round 26 and winning 26-12.

The Roosters still lead the short all-time rivalry 4-3, but the Dolphins have won three of the four meetings played at Suncorp.

Dolphins Form Analysis

The Dolphins enter the preliminary final on an eight-game winning streak and have won 16 of their last 18 overall. Their qualifying-final victory over the Warriors demonstrated another side of this team, with Redcliffe trailing for most of the match before scoring 18 unanswered points to win 26-16.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Herbie Farnworth were instrumental in the comeback and, alongside Cobbo, Jamayne Isaako and Jack Bostock, give the Dolphins attacking threats across the entire backline.

Suncorp has also become a significant advantage. The Dolphins have won their last eight at the venue, with their only two defeats there this season coming back in March.

Tom Flegler returns after clearing the concussion protocols following his early HIA against the Warriors, while the experienced Felise Kaufusi has also been recalled.

Sydney Roosters Form Analysis

The Roosters finally broke their four-game losing streak in emphatic fashion, beating Cronulla 46-10 to keep their season alive.

Daly Cherry-Evans produced one of his best performances of the season with a try and three assists, while James Tedesco again led from the back and Mark Nawaqanitawase crossed twice.

The return of Walker now gives Sydney another attacking dimension. Cherry-Evans moves to five-eighth and the Roosters suddenly have two elite kicking and playmaking options in the halves.

How Walker handles his rapid return from surgery remains the question. The Roosters have already struggled twice against this Dolphins side in 2026, scoring just 22 combined points across the two defeats.

Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters Team News & Team Lists

The Dolphins welcome Tom Flegler back after he cleared the concussion protocols, while two-time premiership winner Felise Kaufusi has been recalled to the extended interchange.

Sydney have named Sam Walker at halfback just 24 days after he suffered his syndesmosis injury against the Dolphins and underwent surgery. Daly Cherry-Evans moves to five-eighth, with Hugo Savala shifting to the bench.

Click to see the NRL Preliminary Finals Team Lists.

Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Preliminary Final FAQs

How can I watch Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters?
The Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters NRL Preliminary Final can be watched via Fox Footy or Kayo Sports, while viewers outside Australia can watch live and on demand through Watch NRL.
How can I buy tickets to Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters?
Tickets for Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters can be purchased through the NRL website or the official Dolphins website.

Verdict

Dolphins v Sydney Roosters

The Dolphins backline is too dangerous so back them to make history and cover the 2.5 points as the favourite while scoring over 22.5 points. Selwyn Cobbo is the best value try scorer with Jeremy Marshall-King as an outsider.