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Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights NRL Preliminary Final Tips - Can The Knights Cause an Upset?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu. 24 Sep. 2026 06:07

Jeremy Darke 24 Sep. 2026

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Newcastle +10.5 is backed after conceding only 20 points across two finals.
Penrith's last six matches have gone under their respective totals.
Bradman Best is the preferred Newcastle tryscorer against the Penrith right edge.
Kick-off is at 4:00 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 27th September at Accor Stadium, Sydney.

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights NRL Preliminary Final Tips

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights, Preliminary Final 2026 - Expert Prediction

Newcastle have already knocked off South Sydney and the Warriors in this finals series and are backed to keep their remarkable run alive by covering the +10.5 line against Penrith.

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights, Preliminary Final 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Team News
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Preliminary Final FAQs

Everything on paper points towards Penrith. The Panthers have won nine of their last 10 against Newcastle, beat them 44-12 earlier this season and enter the preliminary final fresh after a week off. But 10.5 points is a big start for a Knights side that has embraced finals football and conceded just 20 points across two sudden-death wins.

Newcastle's Sunday record also gives us something to work with. The Knights have won seven of their last nine Sunday matches and are 9-5 on Sundays this season. Penrith are a perfect 8-0 on Sundays themselves, but their Accor Stadium record is less convincing with just one win from their last four at the venue.

Under 42.5 points is the second selection. Penrith's last six matches have all finished under their respective game totals, while both Newcastle finals have also gone under. The Panthers have conceded an average of just 11.5 points across their current four-game winning streak, including only 12 against the Roosters in their qualifying final.

For the tryscorer market, Bradman Best Anytime Tryscorer gets the nod. Best will attack the Penrith edge featuring Blaize Talagi, and Newcastle need to give their powerful centre early ball whenever they can create space. Fletcher Sharpe is another option, particularly if the Knights are forced to attack from deep, with his speed and support play making him a threat around every Ponga break.

Penrith have won nine of their last 10 games against Newcastle.
Newcastle have won seven of their last nine Sunday matches.
Penrith have won just one of their last four matches at Accor Stadium.
Penrith's last six matches have finished under their respective game totals.
Newcastle have conceded just 20 points across their two finals victories.

Head to Head

Penrith have dominated this matchup recently, winning nine of the last 10 meetings between the clubs.

The most recent was particularly convincing, with the Panthers travelling to Newcastle in Round 8 this season and winning 44-12. Penrith also won 48-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium last season.

There is one notable exception. Newcastle travelled to Penrith in 2025 and came away with a 25-6 victory, showing they have been capable of upsetting the Panthers during this recent stretch.

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis

The Panthers have had a week to prepare after beating the Roosters 19-12 in their qualifying final and enter Sunday having won four consecutive matches.

Defence continues to be their foundation. Penrith conceded only 46 points across those four victories, an average of 11.5 per game, and finished the regular season as the NRL's No.1 ranked defence for points conceded.

Nathan Cleary has been named despite the foot issue he picked up against the Roosters. He kicked the decisive field goal in that victory, while Dylan Edwards produced 210 metres from 28 runs and Brian To'o sealed the result with a late try.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Newcastle's transformation from 2025 wooden spooners to preliminary finalists has continued with consecutive elimination wins over South Sydney and the Warriors.

The Knights beat Souths 20-10 before heading across the Tasman and grinding out a 12-10 win at Eden Park. Kalyn Ponga was again central to everything Newcastle did, while Fletcher Sharpe scored their crucial try and finished with 133 metres and 10 tackle busts.

That defensive improvement is the biggest reason to consider the +10.5. Newcastle conceded an average of 29.2 points across their previous five games entering this stage of the season, but have allowed only 10 points in each of their two finals.

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Team News

Nathan Cleary has been named despite his foot injury, with Isaah Yeo returning to lock and Jack Cogger and Luke Garner back in the Panthers squad.

Newcastle have retained the same 19-man squad from the win over the Warriors, with Dylan Lucas expected to see more minutes after successfully returning from his fractured ankle.

Check out both Preliminary Final Team Lists here.

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Preliminary Final FAQs

How can I watch Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights?
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights can be watched via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports, while viewers outside Australia can watch live and on demand through Watch NRL.
How can I buy tickets to Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights?
Tickets for the preliminary final can be purchased through the NRL website or the official Ticketmaster event page.

Verdict

Penrith Panthers v Newcastle Knights

The Knights are on upset alert so take them +10.5 with the score staying under 42.5. Bradman Best and Fletcher Sharpe are the good odds try scorers.

Newcastle +10.5

Handicap/Line

$1.91 - 3 Units

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Under 42.5

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