Dolphins vs Roosters NRL Predictions - 4 Value Bets for Tonight's Preliminary Final Showdown

There aren't many hookers you'd be rushing to back at $7.50 in a preliminary final, but Jeremy Marshall-King has developed a knack for finding the line against the Roosters this season. The Dolphins No.9 has scored in both meetings with Sydney in 2026, including their most recent 26-12 victory at Allianz Stadium. In that game, Marshall-King fooled James Tedesco with a dummy before darting over from close range.

That makes the $7.50 available with CrownBet worth considering as an outsider. The obvious attraction is the price: Marshall-King doesn't need a large volume of attacking opportunities if the Dolphins get close to the Roosters' line, with his running threat from dummy-half giving him another avenue to score outside the more fancied Redcliffe backs. Also a tiny sidenote: JMK's only other try for the season came against the Bulldogs - his former team. This is important as it shows the hooker gets up for big games - and this is the biggest of his life. He'll be looking for a quick scoot from dummy-half.

This is the biggest swing of our four selections, but there is a clear statistical case behind the scenario. The Dolphins have consistently been slow starters in 2026, sitting at the bottom of the NRL for their record through the opening 20 minutes. Incredibly, the Dolphins have a 5-17-2 W-L-D record through the first 20 minutes of games this season - comfortably the worst in the competition.

The difference is what the Phins have done after those slow starts. The Dolphins have beaten the Roosters twice this season by margins of 38 and 14 points, are riding eight consecutive wins at Suncorp and have repeatedly shown they can recover after falling behind. That creates an interesting script for the $14 play: Sydney take advantage of another sluggish Dolphins opening to lead at half-time and take the punt on Under 21.5 points, before Redcliffe's explosive attack takes over and produces a victory by a converted try margin.

For those who like the early part of the same match script without needing the Dolphins comeback, the Roosters to win the opening 20-minute interval at $2.50 is the more straightforward option.

The contrast between these teams during the early stages of games has been significant. When these sides met in Round 26, the Dolphins ranked last in the competition through the opening 20 minutes, while the Roosters ranked second and had scored the opening try in nine consecutive games at that stage of the season. The Dolphins' ability to recover has made their poor starts less costly, but it remains a trend worth targeting against a Roosters side capable of attacking from the outset. The Chooks also crossed first against Cronulla last week.

With Sam Walker named to return at halfback and Daly Cherry-Evans shifting to five-eighth, Sydney will also have both of their leading playmakers available for the preliminary final. At $2.50, the Roosters only need to be ahead at the 19:59 mark for this bet to salute, regardless of what happens over the remaining hour.