Carlos Alcaraz vs Reilly Opelka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to tame big-serving Opelka in first round

It's a huge next fortnight for Alcaraz - he's obviously gunning for a second US Open title and aiming to snap rival Jannik Sinner's dominance at the hardcourt slams, with the Italian winning the last three. However, the No. 1 ranking is also on the line - Alcaraz simply needs to match or better Sinner's result in New York to leave the US Open at the top of the tennis mountain. It sets up a potentially thrilling final in two week's time, but Alcaraz can't afford to look past his opening round here.

Opelka is a player nobody wants to see on the other side of the net - the 211cm American is equipped with one of the biggest serves of all time, but don't let his height fool you - he can move extremely well and hang tough from the baseline. Opelka has played three top 10 opponents in the last eight months and he's defeated two of them - namely Novak Djokovic in Brisbane and Alex de Minaur recently in Cincinnati. It's obviously a tall order for Opelka to upset Alcaraz here, but I think he can make this relatively competitive and hold serve frequently, so taking the second seed with Over 33.5 total games.

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Alcaraz has won more matches than any other player on tour this season, coming into this clash with a dominant 54-6 record.

The Spaniard has won six titles, including Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros, Queen's Club and Cincinnati, where Sinner was forced to retire due to illness in the opening set.

With a runner-up showing at Wimbledon also sprinkled in for good measure, Alcaraz has made at least the final of every tournament he's entered since the start of the clay swing in April.

Alcaraz won his maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open in 2022, a result that also propelled him to the World No. 1 ranking for the first time. The 22-year-old is a flawless 18-0 in Grand Slam first round matches heading into this contest.

Opelka has compiled a 23-17 record on the season and comes into the US Open at No. 67 in the world, which is a far cry from his career-high mark of No. 17, which was achieved in 2022.

The American endured a nightmare run of injuries, which is the primary reason for his ranking drop and he's done a solid job of establishing a top 100 presence in 2025.

Opelka's best result came in his very first tournament of the season in Brisbane, where he defeated Djokovic on his way to the final - but he was forced to retire against Jiri Lehecka.

The 27-year-old hasn't made much of an impact since, but he was a semi-finalist on the grass of s-Hertogenbosch and reached the R32 at both the Canada and Cincinnati Masters, defeating de Minaur in the latter.

Opelka's deepest run at the US Open came during his career-best 2022 season, where he made the fourth round before going down to Lloyd Harris.