Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sabalenka to avenge 2021 US Open defeat

Fernandez famously stunned Sabalenka in the semi-finals of the 2021 US Open, marking her fourth consecutive three-set victory of the tournament, with the Canadian ultimately falling to qualifier Emma Raducanu in one of the most surprising Grand Slam finals in history. Fernandez has only been beyond the third round of a major once since that tournament (2022 French Open), so this is a huge match in terms of her working her way back to the big time. Sabalenka meanwhile has endured some heartbreaking Grand Slam experiences herself in 2025 and this is her last chance to add to her major collection.

Sabalenka hasn't been at her best so far this tournament, trailing by an early break in both of her previous rounds, which each went Over 18.5 total games. Fernandez is playing well and can push this match over that total, but it's tough to envision her pulling off another New York upset.

As mentioned, Fernandez leads 1-0, prevailing 7–6, 4–6, 6–4 in the 2021 US Open semi-finals.

Sabalenka has compiled a 52-10 record on the season, winning three WTA titles and remaining World No. 1 throughout.

It's certainly not a bad season by any means, but relatively speaking, Sabalenka would be disappointed by her lofty standards.

Although titles in Brisbane, Miami and Madrid are great, Sabalenka's primary focus is the Grand Slams and she's not been able to reign supreme, losing the final of the Australian Open and Roland Garros to Madison Keys and Coco Gauff, while she went down in the semi-finals of Wimbledon to Amanda Anisimova.

Sabalenka only played one warm up tournament before the US Open, going down to Elena Rybakina in the quarter-finals of Cincinnati. It's clear that Sabalenka is still searching for rhythm, trailing by an early break before closing out Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1 and Polina Kudermetova 7-6 6-2 to reach the third round in New York.

Fernandez has registered a 24-20 record on the season, arriving in New York at No. 30 in the world.

Still just 22 years of age, Fernandez has struggled since her breakout run to the 2021 US Open final, but she's been playing some solid tennis this summer.

The Canadian enjoyed a brilliant run to the WTA 500 title in Washington, defeating the likes of Rybakina and Jessica Pegula along the way.

Fernandez could only manage one win in her next three tournaments, but she's back to some good tennis at the US Open, defeating compatriot Rebecca Marino in straights before recovering from a set down to edge out Elsa Jacquemot.