Australian Open Futures Tips - Sinner & Sabalenka backed for more Melbourne magic

As the first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open can throw up some surprising results, but when all is said and done, I'm tipping the two favourites to emerge triumphant with the silverware.

You simply can't back against Sinner at a hardcourt slam. Yes, his odds of $1.85 are very short, but there's a reason for this. And if the Italian faces anyone other than Carlos Alcaraz in the final, he will probably be around $1.20, so it actually could be decent value. I'm not sold on Alcaraz for this tournament - he's never progressed beyond the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and just went through a controversial offseason split with long-term coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. He's also the kind of player that is at his best with lots of matches under his belt and he hasn't played competitively in 2026. Steering clear.

Sinner has won the last two Australian Open titles and has compiled an incredible 92-6 record on hardcourt over the last two years. The last player other than Alcaraz to beat him in a completed match on hardcourt was Andrey Rublev in Canada in 2024 - and even in that match, Sinner was a little injured.

Sabalenka meanwhile has won 20 of her last 21 matches at the Australian Open, winning the title in 2023/24 and finishing runner-up to Madison Keys last year. The World No. 1 has also won 38 of her last 40 matches in Australia after blitzing the field to secure the Brisbane silverware to launch her 2026 season.

Iga Swiatek looked shaky in United Cup, stubbornly ballbashing when things got tricky, while Coco Gauff simply can't be backed with her troubles on serve. Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina are the two most likely challengers to Sabalenka's charge in my eyes, while Belinda Bencic and Karolina Muchova are the dark horses.

Who knows what was going on with Medvedev throughout most of 2025, but after linking up with new coach Thomas Johansson (a former Australian Open champion), he's turned things around, coming into the tournament having won 17 of his last 20 matches dating back to last year.

Medvedev began 2026 in perfect fashion by winning the Brisbane title and he's made the final in three of the last five Australian Open editions. Realistically, the Russian is the only man other than Sinner or Alcaraz that has any sort of chance of reigning supreme in Melbourne. I know I'm discounting 10-time champion Novak Djokovic at my peril, but the 38-year-old doesn't have any matches under his belt heading into the AO after withdrawing from Adelaide and he's been repeatedly thwarted by the 'Big 2' at the slam for some time now. Just can't see it happening, so getting on this Medvedev quarter pick.

Muchova is a player that if not for persistent injuries, would be a top 10 mainstay and perhaps would have already broken through for a Grand Slam title.

An Australian Open semi-finalist in 2021, Muchova also made the Roland Garros final in 2023 and is a two-time US Open semi-finalist. The Czech is no stranger to going deep at the majors. Muchova is healthy and in great form, conquering Rybakina before falling to Sabalenka in the Brisbane semi-finals to start the season. After landing in the second quarter with Gauff and Mirra Andreeva - two high seeds who haven't been in great form lately - this is a fantastic opportunity for Muchova to make the final four of a slam once again.

Musetti has lost in R1 in two of his four previous Australian Open main draw appearances and never been beyond R3. Collignon has beaten the likes of Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud over the last five months, along with making the Brisbane quarter-finals to start 2026 with wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Denis Shapovalov. Definitely an upset alert this one.

Auger-Aliassime has a history of starting tournaments slowly - indeed, he's lost in R1 in six of his last 11 Grand Slam main draw appearances. The Canadian has a lot of pressure in trying to back up his brilliant 2025 and didn't look great at the United Cup. Borges is someone who's always so tough to beat in a best-of-five format and he's played great in Melbourne in the past, making the fourth round and third round in his last two appearances. Borges went down 7-5 in the third to Auger-Aliassime in Dubai last year in their only previous meeting, so he know's he can hang with the seventh seed.

Andreeva had a rough end to 2025, failing to make a quarter-final after Wimbledon. The teenager hasn't been great overall since winning Dubai and Indian Wells in February/March last year. Vekic meanwhile is a former Australian Open quarter-finalist and Wimbledon semi-finalist, while the Croatian has 17 top 10 scalps to her credit. Vekic is no stranger to deep Grand Slam runs and beating the very best - this looks like a solid spot for another upset.