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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Tips - Crows to edge Pies in Thursday night thriller

adam-cusworth
Editor
Last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026 03:20

Adelaide Crows and Collingwood, two of the AFL's in-form sides, lock horns in Round 20, 2026, in a match expected to be a finals dress rehearsal. Both teams excel with pressure and defensive play, but Adelaide has the home advantage and a superior clearance game, key to limiting Collingwood's dangerous back-half transitions. The Crows have won nine of their last 11 and boast an imposing home record, while the Magpies are on a five-game winning streak but yet to topple a current top-six side this season. The expert tip: Crows in a close, defensive contest—look for Josh Worrell in the disposals market.

Adam Cusworth 21 Jul 2026
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  • The game will be played at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, 23rd July, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • Who will take out key Thursday night match?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Adelaide Crows

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood, Round 20 2026 - Expert Prediction


Two of the hottest sides of the AFL competition, Adelaide and Collingwood, kick off Round 20 in what shapes as a finals dress rehearsal. 

Both have built their recent success on pressure, contest work and defensive structure with this one pointing towards another tight battle, but Adelaide look to hold the edge at home. 

The biggest battle will be through the middle of the ground. Adelaide has become one of the competition's premier clearance teams and is winning territory through its relentless pressure around stoppage. 

Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine, James Peatling and Sam Berry have consistently given the Crows first use, while their ability to lock the ball inside the forward half has made life extremely difficult for opposition defenders. 

If Adelaide can replicate the clearance dominance it produced against Sydney last weekend, it will force Collingwood to defend for long periods and limit the Magpies' ability to play the game on their terms.

That will be crucial because Collingwood is at its most dangerous when it wins the ball back and attacks with speed from the back half. Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos are elite ball users who generate plenty of overlap run, while the Magpies have scored heavily from defensive-half transition throughout their recent winning streak. 

But Adelaide's defensive pressure has been the perfect foil to that style all season and they are set to get the upper hand in what shapes as a lower-scoring affair, given the defensive quality of both sides. 

Josh Worrell shapes as one of the strongest player props on the board. The intercept defender has collected at least 25 disposals in each of his past three matches against Collingwood and should again find plenty of football. The Magpies are comfortable controlling possession across half-back before looking for openings, often allowing opposition intercept defenders to rack up uncontested marks and disposals. 

  • The total points in Collingwood's past three matches at the Adelaide Oval has averaged just 111. 
  • Adelaide have conceded an average of just 69 points per game in their past 11 matches. 
  • Josh Worrell has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches against Collingwood. 
  • The past eight matches between the two sides have been decided by 24 points or less.

Head to Head


Adelaide have won two of the past three between the two sides but Collingwood won at the Adelaide Oval last year when it mattered, taking out the Qualifying Final by 24 points. The past eight matches have been decided by 24 points or less with six of those decided by less than a goal.

Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;

  • Nick Daicos (Pies)- has averaged 32 disposals in his past eight matches against the Crows
  • Josh Worrell (Crows)- 25+ disposals in each of his past three against the Magpies
  • Darcy Fogarty (Crows)- 2+ goals in four of his past five, kicking a total of 10 in those matches
  • Lachie Schultz (Pies)- two goals in the most recent head to head

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis


Adelaide heads into Round 20 sitting firmly inside the top four after winning nine of its past 11 matches, including six of the past seven. The Crows made arguably their biggest statement of the season last Friday night, becoming the first side to defeat Sydney at the SCG this year with a 16-point victory. It was another reminder that Adelaide's pressure, clearance work and defensive intensity stand up against the competition's best.

The Crows' pressure game was outstanding against the Swans, winning the clearance count 51-38 while laying 19 tackles inside 50 to repeatedly force turnovers. Their ability to control territory has become a trademark and is a major reason they have conceded just 69 points per game across their past 11 matches.

Izak Rankine starred with 30 disposals and a goal against Sydney and has now produced 25+ disposals and a goal in each of his past three matches. Darcy Fogarty continued his brilliant run with four goals and has kicked 17 goals across his past five matches, hitting two or more in each of those games. Riley Thilthorpe also booted two goals, including a monster from outside 50 to seal the win, while Taylor Walker, who was managed against Sydney, kicked five goals a fortnight ago in his last appearance at Adelaide Oval. The Crows have also won their past seven matches against interstate opposition at the venue this season.


Collingwood Form Analysis


Collingwood heads into this clash on a five-match winning streak and remains firmly in the finals hunt after defeating Carlton by 21 points in Round 19. The Magpies have rediscovered their trademark pressure and contest work during that stretch, making them one of the more dangerous sides in the competition over the past month.

Their win over Carlton was built on relentless defensive pressure, winning the contested possession count by 13, the tackle count by 24 and producing 46 points from defensive-half transition. That ball movement has become a major weapon, but Adelaide's pressure around the contest shapes as a much sterner test than the Magpies have faced during their winning run.

Nick Daicos again starred with 36 disposals and has now collected 35 or more in six of his past eight matches. Tim Membrey continued his excellent form with three goals and has now kicked at least two in five straight matches, while Dan McStay has also booted multiple goals in each of his past three. Despite their recent surge, Collingwood is yet to defeat a current top-six side this season and has won just one of its three interstate matches in 2026, making this one of its toughest assignments of the year.

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Team List & News


  • To be updated after team selection on Thursday.


Adelaide Crows Team News


Adelaide escaped its win over Sydney without any fresh injury concerns. Taylor Walker was managed as part of his workload and is expected to return, while Rory Laird remains the key injury watch after suffering an ankle injury in Round 18.

Collingwood Team News


The Magpies came through their win over Carlton without any fresh injury concerns. Josh Daicos finished the match despite rolling an ankle early and is expected to be available, while Collingwood will continue monitoring the fitness of Jeremy Howe as it looks to strengthen its backline heading into the run home.

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood AFL 2026 Round 20 FAQ’s

  • How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood AFL 2026 Round 20?

    You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood AFL 2026 Round 20 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

  • How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood AFL 2026 Round 20?

    To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood AFL 2026 Round 20 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Crows in a close one with total to go under, consider Worrell in disposals markets
Best Bet1: Adelaide Crows 1-39 Big Win Little Win $1.88 at OnlyBets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Under 164.5 O/U $1.88 at OnlyBets - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Josh Worrell 25+ Player Disposals $1.88 at picklebet - 1 Unit
Adelaide Crows 1-39
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Under 164.5
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Josh Worrell 25+
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