2026 US Open

Lorenzo Musetti vs Dane Sweeny US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Musetti too strong for Aussie wildcard

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 03 Sep 2026 02:59

Andrew Hendrie 2 hours ago

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Lorenzo Musetti vs Dane Sweeny predictions for Thursday's US Open R2
Sweeny struggles against elite players; only has three completed wins over the top 100
Musetti unbeaten vs 100+ ranked players in 2026, tipped to cruise
The match is scheduled to start around 3.00am AEST on Friday September 4

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Lorenzo Musetti vs Dane Sweeny US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Dane Sweeny only has a handful of top 100 wins and has never beaten a top 20 player, so Lorenzo Musetti is backed to cover a -8.5 line in a straight sets victory in this US Open second round contest on Thursday.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Dane Sweeny US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Musetti vs Sweeny Stats & Trends
Musetti vs Sweeny Head To Head
Lorenzo Musetti Form Analysis
Dane Sweeny Form Analysis
Musetti vs Sweeny Live Stream

Sweeny is your traditional Aussie battler and he's done an outstanding job of rising to a career-high live ranking of No. 115 this year after dropping outside the top 600 last season.

However, as much as you've got to respect his grind, Sweeny has big limitations. The 25-year-old struggles to win free points on his serve and he just doesn't have the firepower to mix it with elite players. While his consistency from the baseline and never-say-die attitude can frustrate and grind down lesser players, that game style just doesn't pay dividends against the best players in the world.

Sweeny only has three completed wins over top 100 players and those were against Taro Daniel, James Duckworth and Jacob Fearnley - all players who fluctuate in and out of the top 100. He benefitted greatly from Corentin Moutet retiring in his US Open first round.

Musetti looks to be playing injury-free and was a straight sets winner over Wimbledon semi-finalist Arthur Fery in his opener. The Italian is a perfect 5-0 vs players outside the top 100 this season, winning four of those in straight sets. Musetti shouldn't have any problems in this one.

Musetti vs Sweeny Stats & Trends

Sweeny has a 3-10 record vs top 100 players in completed matches
Sweeny lost 6-3 6-2 6-2 to Ben Shelton in his only previous match vs a top 20 player
Musetti has a 5-0 record in 2026 vs 100+ ranked players, winning four in straight sets
Musetti has only lost once to a player ranked outside the top 30 this year - and that was his first match back from injury

Musetti vs Sweeny Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Lorenzo Musetti Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 20-10
US Open Record: 10-5
Current Ranking: No. 14
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (Jan 2026)

Musetti has been restricted to just 30 matches this year, with injuries preventing the Italian from building on what was an excellent start to the season.

The 24-year-old opened the campaign by reaching the final in Hong Kong before advancing to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, where he was forced to retire despite leading Novak Djokovic.

Musetti has struggled to rediscover his best tennis since returning to the tour, with further injury problems also forcing him to miss both Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

The Italian has at least managed to get a decent amount of matchplay under his belt during the North American summer, reaching the quarter-finals in Washington before losing to Rafael Jodar, while Jodar also accounted for him in the second round in Canada. Musetti then showed some encouraging signs in Cincinnati, winning three consecutive matches at an event for the first time since January before eventually falling to Frances Tiafoe.

Musetti’s best result at the US Open came last year when he reached the quarter-finals, where his run was ended by Jannik Sinner. He got off to a perfect start in his opening round, toppling recent Wimbledon semi-finalist Arthur Fery 6-3 6-3 7-5. Musetti failed to serve out the match at 5-3 in the third set, but regrouped strongly to close it out at the second time of asking.

Dane Sweeny Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 2-3
US Open Record: 1-0
Current Ranking: No. 123
Career-High Ranking: No. 121 (Aug 2026)

Sweeny dropped to as low as No. 680 in the world last year as he struggled with the demands of the tour.

However, the Aussie kept plugging away on the Futures and Challenger circuits in a bid to rebuild his ranking.

Those efforts have been rewarded - Sweeny successfully qualified for the Australian Open at the start of the year, beating Gael Monfils in the first round of the main draw before falling to Ben Shelton.

Sweeny also qualified for Wimbledon, where he played Grigor Dimitrov close in a 7-6(4) 6-3 7-5 defeat.

The 24-year-old's form was poor leading into the US Open, losing four matches on the bounce - including a 7-5 6-0 drubbing by Jesper de Jong in the Quebec Challenger.

However, Sweeny received some good fortune in New York. He was awarded a late wildcard due to the reciprocal agreement between Tennis Australia and the USTA before his first round opponent Corentin Moutet retired with a wrist injury that he's been carrying all year.