2026 US Open

Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Badosa to push Gauff all the way in second round

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 03 Sep 2026 06:59

Andrew Hendrie 2 hours ago

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Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa predictions for Thursday's US Open R2
Badosa has won 1+ set in seven of eight previous meetings vs Gauff
Spaniard tipped to cover a +5.5 line and win a set once more
Gauff has won more three-set matches than anyone this year, can prevail in three
The match is scheduled to start around 9.00am AEST on Friday September 4

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Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Paula Badosa has beaten Coco Gauff five times and she holds value in this second round US Open showdown in prime time on Ashe on Thursday night.

Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Gauff vs Badosa Stats & Trends
Gauff vs Badosa Head To Head
Coco Gauff Form Analysis
Paula Badosa Form Analysis
Gauff vs Badosa Live Stream

At her best and when fully healthy, Badosa is a top 10 player. Without a shadow of a doubt. The Spaniard has peaked at No. 2 in the world and is former Indian Wells champion with 16 top 10 scalps under her belt. She's been struck down by chronic back and hip injuries over the last few years, but right now, she appears in good shape.

And that means Badosa is more than capable of challenging Gauff, who is under immense pressure as one of the leading favourites for the title at home.

Badosa has won a set in seven of the eight previous meetings between the pair - including a most-recent 1-6 6-3 6-2 victory over Gauff on the grass of Berlin shortly before Wimbledon. The 28-year-old loves the big stage and should thrive under the lights on Ashe.

"I like to play against these players," Badosa said after her straight sets first round win over Daria Kasatkina. "I like to play in big stadiums. I enjoy it, and against Coco, we played many, many times. I think we know each other really well. We know how we're gonna play, and at the end, it's who plays the best that day.

"I played recently against her, but I have to say I played a very good match. Hopefully I can perform at that level, and let's see how it goes."

So while I like Badosa to win a set and cover a +5.5 line, I think Gauff can edge out the match in three sets. The American has won more three-set matches than any player on tour this year (14) and is always up for a scrap when her groundstrokes and serve start failing her.

Gauff's had plenty of practice in prevailing when playing below her best and that should hold her in good stead if this match comes down to crunch moments.

Gauff vs Badosa Stats & Trends

Badosa has won a set & covered a +5.5 line in seven of her eight meetings vs Gauff
Badosa has won seven of her last nine matches
Badosa's last two defeats were in straight sets
Badosa has won 1+ set in eight of her last 11 completed matches vs top 10 players
Gauff has a 17-2 record vs players outside the top 50 this season (one defeat vs Badosa)
Gauff has won her last 30 matches vs players outside the top 50 at slams

Gauff vs Badosa Head To Head

Badosa leads 5-3, winning their most recent clash on the grass of Berlin in three sets. The Spaniard also leads 3-2 on hardcourt.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2026	Berlin	Grass	Round of 16	Paula Badosa	1–6, 6–3, 6–2
2025	Australian Open	Hard	Quarterfinals	Paula Badosa	7–5, 6–4
2024	Beijing	Hard	Semifinals	Coco Gauff	4–6, 6–4, 6–2
2024	Rome	Clay	Round of 16	Coco Gauff	5–7, 6–4, 6–1
2023	Madrid	Clay	Round of 32	Paula Badosa	6–3, 6–0
2022	San Jose	Hard	Quarterfinals	Paula Badosa	7–6(4), 6–2
2022	Doha	Hard	Round of 16	Coco Gauff	6–2, 6–3
2021	Indian Wells	Hard	Round of 32	Paula Badosa	6–2, 6–2

Coco Gauff Form Analysis

2026 WTA Record: 41-13
US Open Record: 21-7
Current Ranking: No. 4
Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (2024)

It was a difficult start to the season for Gauff, but a run to the Wimbledon semi-finals proved the catalyst for a return to her best form.

Gauff now arrives at this second round US Open showdown with an outstanding 16-2 record across her last 18 matches, following up her Wimbledon run with another semi-final appearance in Toronto before capturing her first title of 2026 in Cincinnati.

The 22-year-old was particularly impressive in Cincinnati, winning her final 12 sets of the tournament and finishing the week with a dominant 6-2, 6-4 victory over Jessica Pegula in the final.

Gauff will now look to carry that momentum throughout the US Open, where she lifted the trophy in 2023. However, she has been unable to replicate that success in her two appearances since, bowing out in the Round of 16 on both occasions.

It was a solid opening hit-out for Gauff, with the World No. 4 beating Zeynep Sonmez 6-3 6-4. She's now won 67 of her last 71 Grand Slam matches when taking the first set.

Paula Badosa Form Analysis

2026 WTA Record: 15-16
US Open Record: 7-5
Current Ranking: No. 87
Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (2022)

Badosa’s career has been heavily disrupted by injury problems since she climbed to a career-high ranking of No. 2 four years ago.

The Spaniard continues to manage chronic back and hip issues, making it extremely difficult for her to build and sustain any sort of momentum on tour.

Badosa won back-to-back matches just once across the opening six months of the season, but her form improved considerably during the grass swing and the post-Wimbledon clay events. She defeated Gauff on her way to the Berlin quarter-finals before going on to finish runner-up on the clay in Iasi.

The 28-year-old made the US Open quarter-finals in 2024 and she continued her recent good form in her first round, moving past Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-4 in a rain-affected match that spanned across two days, eventually securing the win on her ninth match point.