Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sabalenka aims for fourth straight US Open final
Aryna Sabalenka aims to continue her dominance at the US Open as she faces Jessica Pegula in a highly anticipated semi-final. Boasting an 18-match US Open win streak and a 9-4 head-to-head advantage, Sabalenka is favored to reach a fourth straight final. Although Pegula is consistent and performing well, recent struggles on serve and Sabalenka’s superior record suggest the top seed should prevail, likely in a tight contest exceeding 22.5 games. Sabalenka's resurgence and Pegula's inconsistencies shape the betting and match outlook.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula predictions for Thursday's US Open semi-final
- Sabalenka leads H2H 9-4, including 2-0 record in New York
- Sabalenka tipped for 19th straight US Open win, but Pegula can be competitive
- The match is scheduled to start around 9.00am AEST on Friday September 11
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Aryna Sabalenka has won 18 consecutive matches at the US Open and holds a 9-4 H2H advantage over Jessica Pegula - the top seed is backed to advance into a fourth straight final in New York in a semi-final showdown that features Over 22.5 total games.
Sabalenka is looking to become the first woman since Serena Williams in 2012-14 to win three consecutive US Open titles and I think she will return to the final here.
She may have relinquished the No. 1 ranking to Elena Rybakina this tournament, but this is the best form Sabalenka has been in since claiming the Miami title in March.
The defending champion pulled off her first top 10 victory since Miami in the previous round when she came from a break down in the deciding set to edge Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova and that should give her a big confidence boost, restoring the feeling of being able to beat the best players in the world after a recent lean period.
This matchup is all about Sabalenka - when she's at her best, there's not really much Pegula can do about it.
The American is a remarkably consistent player and will make you pay if you're slightly off your game, but Sabalenka is back in form and absolutely loves these conditions. I'm also a bit concerned about Pegula's level in her win against Emma Navarro - it was a pretty low-quality contest and the American struggled on serve, which Sabalenka will exploit with her powerful returns.
Sabalenka has beaten Pegula twice already in New York and she's playing well enough to extend that record on Thursday night.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Stats & Trends
- Sabalenka has won her last 18 matches at the US Open
- Sabalenka has won seven of her last eight Grand Slam semi-finals
- Sabalenka has a 29-9 record in her last 38 matches vs top 10 players
- Pegula has lost her last two Grand Slam semi-finals
- Pegula has seen Over 22.5 games in all three of her Grand Slam semi-finals
- Pegula has a 3-5 record in her last eight matches vs top 10 players
- Pegula has seen Over 22.5 games in four of her last five matches vs top 10 players
- Sabalenka has a 2-0 record over Pegula at the US Open, with both seeing Over 22.5 games
- The last four meetings have gone to three sets & Over 22.5 games
Sabalenka vs Pegula Head To Head
Sabalenka leads 9-4, winning both US Open encounters - although Pegula has won two of the last three, including the most-recent in Berlin during the grass swing this year.
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Berlin | Grass | Semifinals | Jessica Pegula | 6–4, 6–7(4), 6–0 |
| 2025 | WTA Finals | Hard | Round 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–4, 2–6, 6–3 |
| 2025 | Wuhan | Hard | Semifinals | Jessica Pegula | 2–6, 6–4, 7–6(2) |
| 2025 | US Open | Hard | Semifinals | Aryna Sabalenka | 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2025 | Miami | Hard | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 7–5, 6–2 |
| 2024 | US Open | Hard | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 7–5, 7–5 |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Hard | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 7–5 |
| 2023 | WTA Finals | Hard | Round 1 | Jessica Pegula | 6–4, 6–3 |
| 2022 | WTA Finals | Hard | Round 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 7–5 |
| 2022 | Rome | Clay | Round of 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–1, 6–4 |
| 2021 | Madrid | Clay | Round of 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–1, 6–2 |
| 2020 | Roland Garros | Clay | Round of 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 6–1 |
| 2020 | Cincinnati (NYC) | Hard | Round of 16 | Jessica Pegula | 6–2, 2–6, 6–3 |
Aryna Sabalenka Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 45-8
- US Open Record: 39-6
- Current Ranking: No. 1
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2023)
Sabalenka has been in relatively poor form over the last few months and has paid the price, officially losing the No. 1 ranking after Elena Rybakina made the semi-finals in the bottom half of the draw.
It was another blistering start to the season for Sabalenka, with the four-time Grand Slam champion compiling a remarkable 25-1 record across the opening three months. She captured titles in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami, while her only defeat came against Rybakina in the Australian Open final.
However, Sabalenka has struggled to maintain those lofty standards since lifting the Miami trophy. She bowed out in the quarter-finals at Roland Garros and the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, while she also failed to progress beyond the Round of 16 in either Canada or Cincinnati, losing to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Sara Bejlek respectively.
Sabalenka is now attempting to complete a US Open three-peat and she's gradually getting back to some of her best tennis. The World No. 1 didn't face a top 50 player across her first four rounds, cruising past Camila Osorio (6-2, 6-4), Polina Iatcenko (6-1, 6-1), Kamilla Rakhimova (6-3, 6-4) and Taylor Townsend (6-4, 6-3) without dropping a set.
The top seed was then forced to raise her level in the quarter-finals against Wimbledon winner Linda Noskova. It was a big battle and Sabalenka needed to come from 2-4 down in the deciding set to prevail, edging a tiebreak to come out a 7-6(1) 3-6 7-6(7) winner to reach a sixth straight US Open semi-final and 15th major semi overall.
Jessica Pegula Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 50-12
- US Open Record: 28-9
- Current Ranking: No. 3
- Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)
Pegula arrived at the US Open at a career-high ranking of World No. 3 and could rise to No. 2 if she manages to win a maiden major title here in New York.
Regardless of how the rankings unfold, it has been another excellent season for Pegula. The American has captured titles in Dubai and Charleston, finished runner-up in Cincinnati, Washington and Berlin, and also reached the semi-finals of the Australian Open.
Pegula has enjoyed another strong North American summer with those aforementioned finals in Washington and Cincinnati, but she will be hoping to turn another consistent run into a breakthrough result at the US Open as she continues her pursuit of an elusive first Grand Slam title.
The American has been dominant for the most part in New York, with Leylah Fernandez the only player to take a set off her through the opening four rounds. Pegula cruised past Elena-Gabriela Ruse and Sofia Kenin without dropping more than three games in a set before overcoming Fernandez in the third round.
Pegula then produced another commanding performance against Sorana Cirstea in the Round of 16, winning the opening 13 points of the match on her way to a 6-3, 6-4 victory and a place in the quarter-finals.
However, it wasn't a great level from Pegula in her quarter-final against countrywoman Emma Navarro - there was a combined 24 break points and the third seed won just 41 per cent of points behind her second serve. But Pegula remained the steadier of the pair in the big moments and was ultimately able to close out a 3-6 6-4 6-3 victory and make a third straight US Open semi-final.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Live Stream
Watch and bet on Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula live tennis from the US Open.
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Verdict
Sabalenka to win is the main play for this one, with smaller stakes on Ove 22.5 games and the top seed to prevail in three.
Sabalenka Win
H2H
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Sabalenka 2-1
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