Elena Rybakina vs Coco Gauff US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Another three-setter to decide heavyweight semi-final
- Elena Rybakina v Coco Gauff predictions for Thursday's US Open semi-finals
- Both previous meetings between the pair have gone the distance
- Nothing splits these two ahead of SFs - Over 22.5 games & three sets tipped
- The match is scheduled to start around 11.00am AEST on Friday September 11
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Elena Rybakina vs Coco Gauff US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff both needed a deciding set to advance into the semi-finals and their two previous meetings have also gone the distance - as such, this US Open blockbuster is tipped to feature Over 22.5 games and go three, with Gauff holding the slightest of edges at her home slam.
This should be a cracking contest.
Rybakina has recaptured her best hardcourt tennis and has officially secured the No. 1 ranking for the first time, becoming the 30th woman to hit the summit.
Gauff meanwhile is on a 10-match winning streak following her Cincinnati title, saving two match points to conquer French Open champion Mirra Andreeva in the quarter-finals.
Both players are two-time major champions and know what it takes in these situations.
I find it hard to split the pair, so Over 22.5 games and the match going to a deciding set are the main plays here.
These two have only played each other twice before, but both times they went the distance - including earlier this summer in Toronto, where Rybakina came from a set down to win 12 of the next 16 games.
Gauff hasn't lost since that defeat and has built a lot of momentum over the last month, restoring some confidence and hitting top form after a relatively challenging year. The American will command huge support in the second night match on Ashe and that could just spur Gauff over the line in a semi-final where the margins are so thin.
Rybakina vs Gauff Stats & Trends
- Over 22.5 games & Over 2.5 sets has landed in both previous meetings
- Rybakina & Gauff both went to a deciding set in their respective quarter-finals
- Gauff has won 20 of her last 22 matches, including 10 on the bounce
- Rybakina has won 13 of her last 15 matches
- Rybakina has won five of her last six semi-final matches
- Rybakina has a 3-4 record in her last seven matches vs top 10 players
- Gauff has an 18-2 record in her last 20 US Open matches
- Rybakina is playing her first US Open semi-final
- Gauff has a 3-3 record in Grand Slam semi-finals
Rybakina vs Gauff Head To Head
Locked at 1-1, with both meetings coming in Toronto.
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Toronto | Hard | Semifinals | Elena Rybakina | 5–7, 6–2, 6–2 |
| 2023 | Dubai | Hard | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | Walkover |
| 2022 | Toronto | Hard | Round of 32 | Coco Gauff | 6–4, 6–7(8), 7–6(3) |
Elena Rybakina Form Analysis
2026 WTA Record: 47-13
US Open Record: 13-6
Current Ranking: No. 2
Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (March 2026)
US Open Record: 13-6
Current Ranking: No. 2
Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (March 2026)
It may say No. 2 for the current ranking right now, but Rybakina will officially be World No. 1 after the US Open courtesy of making her first semi-final in New York.
The Kazakh made a fantastic start to the season, capturing her second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open before backing that up with semi-final appearances at both Indian Wells and Miami.
However, Rybakina struggled to maintain that momentum throughout the clay and grass swings. She suffered a second-round exit at Roland Garros and bowed out in the third round at Wimbledon, failing to progress beyond the quarter-finals of any tournament during the European summer.
A return to hardcourt proved to be the catalyst for an improvement in form, with Rybakina advancing to the final in Toronto. She defeated the likes of Naomi Osaka and Gauff during an impressive run before eventually falling to Iga Swiatek in the decider.
Rybakina suffered a setback in Cincinnati when she was forced to retire through injury, but it's safe to say she's well and truly back to full fitness in New York.
She has reached the US Open semi-finals for the first time in her career after recording straight-sets victories over Thea Frodin (6-3, 6-2), Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (6-2, 6-4), Yuliia Starodubtseva (7-6(6), 6-3) and Naomi Osaka (6-1, 6-4).
Rybakina was particularly ruthless against Osaka, blasting 29 winners and seven aces while committing just 17 unforced errors. The Kazakh was made to work much harder in the quarter-finals against a resurgent Qinwen Zheng, who was coming off miracle wins over Madison Keys and Swiatek.
After going down 4-3 in the deciding set and saving a break point, Rybakina won six points on the trot and the final three games of the match to pull off a 3-6 6-1 6-4 victory and claim the No. 1 ranking.
Coco Gauff Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 45-13
- US Open Record: 25-7
- Current Ranking: No. 4
- Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (2024)
It was a difficult start to the season for Gauff, but a run to the Wimbledon semi-finals proved to be the catalyst for a return to her best form.
Gauff now heads into this US Open semi-final showdown with an outstanding 20-2 record across her last 22 matches. The American followed up her Wimbledon run with another semi-final appearance in Toronto before capturing her first title of 2026 in Cincinnati.
The 22-year-old was particularly impressive in Cincinnati, winning her final 12 sets of the tournament before completing the week with a dominant 6-2, 6-4 victory over Jessica Pegula in the final.
Gauff will now be looking to carry that momentum into another US Open final after lifting the trophy in 2023.
The World No. 4 made a solid start to this year's campaign, defeating Zeynep Sonmez 6-3, 6-4 in the opening round before producing an impressive performance to overcome Paula Badosa 6-3, 7-6(5).
Gauff's level dipped in her third-round victory over Cristina Bucsa, particularly on serve, where she landed fewer than 50 per cent of her first serves and committed six double faults. Despite being below her best, the American still secured a 6-3, 6-4 victory, reeling off the final eight points of the match to seal her place in the fourth round.
It was a much-improved performance from Gauff in the Round of 16, especially after being eliminated at that stage in each of her previous two US Open appearances. The American was in control throughout against teenage compatriot Iva Jovic, cruising to a 6-1, 6-4 victory to book her place in the quarter-finals.
A dramatic quarter-final followed against Roland Garros champion Mirra Andreeva. Gauff was again below her best, but she's arguably the biggest fighter on tour and consistently finds ways to dig herself out of holes. She did just that in the second set tiebreak, saving two match points before storming away with the decider to complete a 2-6, 7-6 (7), 6-2 victory and improve her H2H record over Andreeva to 6-0.
Rybakina vs Gauff Live Stream
Watch and bet on Elena Rybakina vs Coco Gauff live tennis from the US Open.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > US Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Over 22.5 games & three sets is on the menu for the best bets here, with Gauff holding the slight edge to prevail in three.
Over 22.5
Total Games
$1.85 - 2 Units
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Over 2.5
Total Sets
$2.35 - 2 Units
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Gauff 2-1
Set Betting
$4.40 - 1 Unit
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