Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Tiafoe to make third US Open semi-final
Frances Tiafoe is strongly favored to reach his third US Open semi-final as he faces fellow American Alex Michelsen in the quarter-finals. Tiafoe boasts a 2-0 head-to-head advantage, both in straight sets, and has a stellar 28-11 career record at the US Open. While Michelsen is playing his first Grand Slam quarter-final, Tiafoe's recent resurgence, reliability against lower-ranked opponents, and form at this tournament make him the clear pick. Betting markets back Tiafoe for another straight-sets victory.
- Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen predictions for Tuesday's US Open QF
- Tiafoe has a 2-0 record over Michelsen, winning both in straight sets
- Tiafoe also with a 31-7 vs lower-ranked players in 2026 - tipped to reach third US Open SF
- The match is scheduled to start around 3.30am AEST on Wednesday September 9
Frances Tiafoe v Alex Michelsen Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > US Open. T&Cs apply.
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Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Frances Tiafoe is tipped to advance into a third US Open semi-final when he meets countryman Alex Michelsen in an all-American quarter-final on Tuesday, with some decent value on Big Foe to record a third straight sets victory in this matchup.
Tiafoe has a lot going for him in this spot.
Firstly, he holds a pretty dominant 2-0 record over Michelsen, winning both matches in straight sets and breaking serve nine times.
Secondly, Tiafoe thrives at the US Open - he's gone 28-11 throughout his career, reaching the semi-finals twice before. This will be Michelsen's first Grand Slam quarter-final appearance.
Additionally, Tiafoe has a great record against players ranked below him in 2026, winning 31 of 38 such matches. He's consistently beating players he's supposed to.
So with all that in mind, Tiafoe looks pretty good value at $1.65 to come out on top here. He's recovered from minor wrist surgery, while his serve and forehand are looking good.
Tiafoe has won his last three matches at this tournament in straight sets and the $4.00 on offer for a fourth on the trot also appeals. Michelsen has lost 15 of 16 matches when dropping the first set and nine of those in straight sets - if he loses the opener, he will be in trouble here.
Tiafoe vs Michelsen Stats & Trends
- Tiafoe has a 31-7 record vs lower-ranked players this season
- Tiafoe's last three wins have come in straight sets
- Tiafoe has a 2-1 record in US Open quarter-finals
- Tiafoe has a 2-0 record vs Michelsen, winning both in straight sets
- Michelsen has a 2-9 record vs top 20 players this season
- Michelsen is 0-2 in quarter-final matches this season
Tiafoe vs Michelsen Head To Head
As mentioned, Tiafoe leads 2-0 - this will be their first meeting in 2026.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Frances Tiafoe | Houston | Quarterfinal | Outdoor Clay | 7–5, 6–1 |
| 2024 | Frances Tiafoe | Dallas | Round of 16 | Indoor Hard | 6–4, 6–3 |
Frances Tiafoe Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 41-16
- US Open Record: 28-11
- Current Ranking: No. 12
- Career-High Ranking: No. 10 (2023)
After a disappointing 2025 campaign, Tiafoe has enjoyed a strong resurgence this season and arrived at the US Open on the verge of returning to the top 10.
Three ATP finals have helped the American climb back up the rankings, with Tiafoe capturing the title in Berlin while also finishing runner-up at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco and the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati.
It was a slow start to the North American summer, with Tiafoe suffering a first-round exit in Washington before bowing out in the second round in Canada. However, he rediscovered his best tennis in Cincinnati, defeating the likes of Lorenzo Musetti, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Brandon Nakashima before eventually falling to Arthur Fils in the final.
Tiafoe was made to work hard in his US Open opener, needing five sets to overcome big-serving Martin Damm. The American produced a much more assured performance in the second round, defeating another powerful server in Japanese qualifier Rei Sakamoto 6-3, 7-6(2), 7-5 to advance and he backed it up with another straight sets win over Valentin Vacherot in the third round, 6-4 6-2 6-4.
Tiafoe then produced his best tennis of the tournament to roll past former champion Daniil Medvedev by a 7-6(1) 6-4 7-6(6) score. It was his first ever win over Medvedev and a tour-leading 25th victory on hardcourt for the year.
Alex Michelsen Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 27-17
- US Open Record: 6-3
- Current Ranking: No. 46
- Career-High Ranking: No. 30 (2025)
It's been a decent season for Michelsen - some consistent results, but also a lack of one real standout tournament.
Perhaps that is changing at this year's US Open.
Before this tournament, Michelsen's best result by round was a semi-final in Brisbane - his very first event of the season.
But the American has found his best tennis at his home slam, advancing to his first major quarter-final.
After an opening round win over qualifier Federico Cina, Michelsen produced arguably his finest match of the year to knock out the in-form Brandon Nakashima, 6-3 6-4 6-4.
Michelsen has since toppled Daniel Merida 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3 and Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6(6) 6-4 6-4, meaning he's yet to drop a single set this tournament.
Tiafoe vs Michelsen Live Stream
Watch and bet on Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen live tennis from the US Open.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > US Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Tiafoe has everything going for him in this matchup and looks good value for a third straight sets win over Michelsen.
Tiafoe Win
H2H
$1.65 - 3 Units
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Tiafoe 3-0
Set Betting
$4.00 - 1 Unit
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